Oklahoma's former starting QB Williams has entered the transfer portal. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that he comes to UCLA, or that at least Chip makes a huge push for him.
Not so sure about Aranda not leaving Baylor, he's from SoCal and there's been a lot of chatter about him wanting the Ucla job. Prestige wise Baylor can't hold a candle to Ucla. And Jarmond may want "his" hire in charge of the program.
oh I believe he will eventually leave Baylor, just not for UCLA. In the light most favorable to UCLA, that is a lateral move, but its really a notch down. But he's only had 1 good season. If he puts together a few more, he'll have SEC schools knocking on the door.
Also, I have to disagree with you about Baylor not holding a candle to UCLA. When was the last time we went to a really good bowl? The Alamo Bowl is the best bowl we have been to THIS CENTURY. Think about that. Baylor has been to the Fiesta, Cotton, and Sugar bowls in the last 10 years. UCLA has 1 top 10 finish this century. Yeah, Baylor's football program was basically nothing before 2010, but they blew by UCLA a long time ago.
In reference to "holding a candle to", I meant as a prestige university in the sense that Ucla is the most applied to college in the US, and the most prestigious world wide.
I would agree to UCLA being a lateral move to Baylor, but I think Aranda could see UCLA as better set-up for success in the future (especially since he is from the Southern California area). You have to compete against USC, now coached by Lincoln Riley who Aranda has shown he can beat (and is likely gone in a few years but that's a different story), but that's about it from the conference (I think Oregon will remain a strong recruiter but the jury remains out on that coaching staff for now). Big 12 has better coaching staffs and will be adding strong programs in Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF in the future. And UCLA has proven that it will pay market rate and be ridiculously patient with a coach. I can easily see Aranda looking at UCLA as a better long-term spot than Baylor.
First, what makes you say Riley is gone in a few years? I'm sort of operating under the assumption that there are about a dozen coaches hoping to replace Nick Saban. If Bama beats Georgia, he could decide to retire if Alabama three peats next year. At least that's what some in Alabama speculate -- what else would there be to accomplish? So the job could be open as soon as 12 months from now and I would assume that Riley would probably have interest.
Second, the SEC has created a pretty wide gap between the other conferences. Certainly can offer the most money. I think any coach that regards himself as elite, or thinks he will become elite, has the SEC as a target. If not, then one of the other perennial contenders like Ohio State or Clemson. If that is Aranda's goal, it strikes me as an unnecessary risk to come to UCLA and coach a program that hasn't proved much of anything for 20+ years. He has the Baylor program flying high with no indication of slowing down. I assume they will contend for the playoff again next year, something UCLA will not do. To the extent that UCLA has had any success the last 5 years (lol), it has coincided with a pretty sad 5 years for USC, which obviously will not continue. The division has been wide open for the last 5 years and we couldn't even finish 2nd until this year. 3-4 years of Las Vegas and Holiday Bowl appearances will do nothing to help him get an elite job, but consistently competing for the Playoff at Baylor will.
That, and he apparently just agreed to an extension.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him. I'd love to have a bunch of coaches that will also never come here.
On Riley: my read on Riley is that his ultimate goal is to get to the NFL, and it would be a real good bullet point to say that he "rebuilt" USC in just a few years. It's also why Caleb Williams to USC makes sense - Riley gets a QB he is familiar with and can mold into a top QB pick, and then can sell himself as a tandem package at the next level. And even if Saban is potentially retiring at some point in the future, Riley is likely not a name for that job - Alabama would want someone with SEC experience already (Dabo is the obvious name people point to, but I would think Kiffin or Jimbo are the actual names to watch here).
As for Aranda, few things. One, he still hasn't actually signed an extension, and all reports are that Baylor is planning to offer one at some point in the near future, which are the same reports that existed back in November. Second, yes the SEC is the money conference currently, but I think you grossly underestimate how other jobs are perceived. UCLA, despite the last 20 years, is still a solid job thanks to the intangibles (good pay, prime location, lack of pressure from fans). Remember: UCLA was in a bidding war with Florida for Chip Kelly, and Kelly ultimately chose the Bruins over the Gators. We've discussed the fact that the Pac-12 has been a weak conference for a few years, but it's still a P5 conference, and it would be easier to get to the playoffs by winning the Pac-12 than it would be in a stronger Big 12. Hell, Lincoln Riley was going to become an SEC coach, but he decided trying to compete and win a weaker Pac-12 was a better choice.
Baylor is honestly a tougher job going forward. The SEC is going to have greater access to Texas recruits going forward, which will hurt Baylor, and the conference will be overall stronger than the Pac-12 with the addition of the 4 good AAC squads. Despite Chip Kelly's struggles, Aranda would have greater access to talent at UCLA, and subsequently would have a better shot at competing for playoffs here as well. Hell, with competent defensive coaching this year, UCLA would have easily been a top 15 team, and that's despite four years of Chip Kelly.
I guess my overall point is that UCLA has options if it were to move on from Kelly, despite how late in the process it appears to be.
If Azz was going to be fired, it would have happened by now. The only way he leaves is in the unlikely event that Chip and UCLA cannot work out an extension.
They won’t work out an extension. His $9 million buyout clause ends January 16th I believe. He will stay of course to finish out his contract, but it says more that UCLA will not renew him. In addition to the $40 million dollar sports deficit.
both sides have been negotiating an extension for several weeks. It will be a surprise if he is not extended, but it is taking longer than I think anyone expected.
I don't think the delay is that shocking, tbh. Once Sexton was hired you could see that he was going to try everything he could to manufacture leverage for his client where none really existed prior. The delay happening, from my read of the situation, means UCLA does not believe Chip Kelly is really the long-term answer and is negotiating with that idea in mind. We're at the point now where Kelly and Sexton are running out of leverage (the Oregon saga showed that UCLA is seemingly fine with Kelly leaving of his own accord, so those threats are not particularly useful) and like I said, if Kelly is going to stick around, that extension likely gets signed in the next few weeks. If it gets to January 16th, then all bets are off.
My gut feeling? Extension gets signed next Thursday or Friday. I assume with it, Azzinaro will be gone and replaced by Clancy Pendergast.
Even if they do not believe Chip is the long term answer, offering him an extension isn't a bad thing, because in that scenario you would likely be lessening a future buyout and give more flexibility. If you make it incentive-laden (like Harbaugh's extension at Michigan) you can save a lot of money if he flounders but pay appropriate money for success. And a salary increase helps for future coaching hires, both because it shows UCLA is willing to pay solid money for a coach (UCLA right now is paying a top 15 salary in the country for Chip Kelly) and means they can increase the salary for the next coach by I believe 20% without needing BoR approval.
That said, if you are asking me if the smoke around Aranda is legitimate, I honestly believe it is, just because I have heard it mentioned from enough places that I trust to believe there is some truth there.
It seems like coordinators and position coaches, despite their records, move around from one program to another while making hefty six figure incomes -- it's like some kind of coaching fraternity. Meanwhile us working stiffs and entrepreneurs have to work our asses off, and be lucky, to make that kind of $$$!! Think Azz.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I posted a few weeks ago that I was surprised that an extension hadn’t been announced and it feels very much like there’s a real gap in where the two sides are at. I’m happy that Jarmond seems to be holding his ground, but I find it hard to read what will happen. From best to worst though, here’s my thoughts;
Best outcome IMHO is that the 16th rolls around and the Aranda rumours turn out to be true. I’d love to upgrade to a new coach this year and try to start building the program.
Next, I think a Harbough extension us still possible, but for me this is likely just buying time until a change next season. Not the best, not the worst outcome.
I don’t think this will happen, but it could be that the 16th comes and goes with no change. So Kelly goes into his last year as a lame duck. I think his pride won’t let this happen, and although it could potentially save UCLA some money (when replacing him), I think its not a great outcome. It would just mean endless speculation and drama, which is never good for a program.
Last, and I think a real possibility and worry, is that Kelly walks away after the 16th. If Aranda really comes it’s fine, but if that doesn’t happen, it could be ugly. Would there be any credible long-term options left, or would we have to find an interim coach? Imagine competing for talent vs. Riley in this scenario. Ugh.
I think the extension is still likely, but if Jarmond insists on axing Azz (and he should), and Kelly can’t accept that, or if Kelly feels he really deserves a big raise and buyout clause then who knows what happens.
Ok, I had to look this up but I did recall that Carolina hired Matt Ruhle away from Baylor pretty late in that cycle, after the NY6 bowls... turns out that Aranda was hired at Baylor to replace him in 2020 on... wait for it... Jan 16.
If you want an in-public point, your best shot is Bud Elliot, national recruiting guru at 247Sports, who offered up that Aranda to UCLA was a real possibility unprompted on an episode of the Cover 3 Podcast. Elliot said that was the prevailing belief among coaches at the time, and Elliot is a solid reporter who wouldn’t offer up info unless he was confident in it (he’s from the SBN tree that a lot of us came from).
For more underground stuff, I’ve had conversations with people connected to UCLA who have offered up Aranda as a real possibility. I’m not going to say “done deal” by any stretch, but I would not be shocked if some back channel discussions had not occurred, and it would line up with Aranda not having signed an extension that’s been on the table since November.
Would love to see UCLA counter U$C's hyped-up coaching change with a splashy hire of their own by bringing in Aranda and giving notice to high school recruits and college transfers that the Bruins won't be sitting idle and remain satisfied with only beating lowly teams or settling for post-season invitations to toilet bowls. If not, at least get Chip to replace Azzinaro with someone who is competent and can help win games with sound defense.
I think UTAH was giving Azzinaro a tryout in the second half of the Rose Bowl
LOL
Oklahoma's former starting QB Williams has entered the transfer portal. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that he comes to UCLA, or that at least Chip makes a huge push for him.
I’m leaning Chip stays. I’m intrigued by Aranda however. I guess we’re all waiting for the 16th…
Chip already hired several new assistants. He is not going anywhere. Nobody is leaving Baylor for UCLA.
Not so sure about Aranda not leaving Baylor, he's from SoCal and there's been a lot of chatter about him wanting the Ucla job. Prestige wise Baylor can't hold a candle to Ucla. And Jarmond may want "his" hire in charge of the program.
oh I believe he will eventually leave Baylor, just not for UCLA. In the light most favorable to UCLA, that is a lateral move, but its really a notch down. But he's only had 1 good season. If he puts together a few more, he'll have SEC schools knocking on the door.
Also, I have to disagree with you about Baylor not holding a candle to UCLA. When was the last time we went to a really good bowl? The Alamo Bowl is the best bowl we have been to THIS CENTURY. Think about that. Baylor has been to the Fiesta, Cotton, and Sugar bowls in the last 10 years. UCLA has 1 top 10 finish this century. Yeah, Baylor's football program was basically nothing before 2010, but they blew by UCLA a long time ago.
In reference to "holding a candle to", I meant as a prestige university in the sense that Ucla is the most applied to college in the US, and the most prestigious world wide.
ya but what's that to a football coach? He's not trying to get a diploma, just a paycheck and shot at a championship.
I would agree to UCLA being a lateral move to Baylor, but I think Aranda could see UCLA as better set-up for success in the future (especially since he is from the Southern California area). You have to compete against USC, now coached by Lincoln Riley who Aranda has shown he can beat (and is likely gone in a few years but that's a different story), but that's about it from the conference (I think Oregon will remain a strong recruiter but the jury remains out on that coaching staff for now). Big 12 has better coaching staffs and will be adding strong programs in Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF in the future. And UCLA has proven that it will pay market rate and be ridiculously patient with a coach. I can easily see Aranda looking at UCLA as a better long-term spot than Baylor.
First, what makes you say Riley is gone in a few years? I'm sort of operating under the assumption that there are about a dozen coaches hoping to replace Nick Saban. If Bama beats Georgia, he could decide to retire if Alabama three peats next year. At least that's what some in Alabama speculate -- what else would there be to accomplish? So the job could be open as soon as 12 months from now and I would assume that Riley would probably have interest.
Second, the SEC has created a pretty wide gap between the other conferences. Certainly can offer the most money. I think any coach that regards himself as elite, or thinks he will become elite, has the SEC as a target. If not, then one of the other perennial contenders like Ohio State or Clemson. If that is Aranda's goal, it strikes me as an unnecessary risk to come to UCLA and coach a program that hasn't proved much of anything for 20+ years. He has the Baylor program flying high with no indication of slowing down. I assume they will contend for the playoff again next year, something UCLA will not do. To the extent that UCLA has had any success the last 5 years (lol), it has coincided with a pretty sad 5 years for USC, which obviously will not continue. The division has been wide open for the last 5 years and we couldn't even finish 2nd until this year. 3-4 years of Las Vegas and Holiday Bowl appearances will do nothing to help him get an elite job, but consistently competing for the Playoff at Baylor will.
That, and he apparently just agreed to an extension.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him. I'd love to have a bunch of coaches that will also never come here.
On Riley: my read on Riley is that his ultimate goal is to get to the NFL, and it would be a real good bullet point to say that he "rebuilt" USC in just a few years. It's also why Caleb Williams to USC makes sense - Riley gets a QB he is familiar with and can mold into a top QB pick, and then can sell himself as a tandem package at the next level. And even if Saban is potentially retiring at some point in the future, Riley is likely not a name for that job - Alabama would want someone with SEC experience already (Dabo is the obvious name people point to, but I would think Kiffin or Jimbo are the actual names to watch here).
As for Aranda, few things. One, he still hasn't actually signed an extension, and all reports are that Baylor is planning to offer one at some point in the near future, which are the same reports that existed back in November. Second, yes the SEC is the money conference currently, but I think you grossly underestimate how other jobs are perceived. UCLA, despite the last 20 years, is still a solid job thanks to the intangibles (good pay, prime location, lack of pressure from fans). Remember: UCLA was in a bidding war with Florida for Chip Kelly, and Kelly ultimately chose the Bruins over the Gators. We've discussed the fact that the Pac-12 has been a weak conference for a few years, but it's still a P5 conference, and it would be easier to get to the playoffs by winning the Pac-12 than it would be in a stronger Big 12. Hell, Lincoln Riley was going to become an SEC coach, but he decided trying to compete and win a weaker Pac-12 was a better choice.
Baylor is honestly a tougher job going forward. The SEC is going to have greater access to Texas recruits going forward, which will hurt Baylor, and the conference will be overall stronger than the Pac-12 with the addition of the 4 good AAC squads. Despite Chip Kelly's struggles, Aranda would have greater access to talent at UCLA, and subsequently would have a better shot at competing for playoffs here as well. Hell, with competent defensive coaching this year, UCLA would have easily been a top 15 team, and that's despite four years of Chip Kelly.
I guess my overall point is that UCLA has options if it were to move on from Kelly, despite how late in the process it appears to be.
Getting a little late for any reputable DC's to be making a move. Imagine it will be an untested DC if Azz goes. What's to lose?
If Azz was going to be fired, it would have happened by now. The only way he leaves is in the unlikely event that Chip and UCLA cannot work out an extension.
They won’t work out an extension. His $9 million buyout clause ends January 16th I believe. He will stay of course to finish out his contract, but it says more that UCLA will not renew him. In addition to the $40 million dollar sports deficit.
both sides have been negotiating an extension for several weeks. It will be a surprise if he is not extended, but it is taking longer than I think anyone expected.
I don't think the delay is that shocking, tbh. Once Sexton was hired you could see that he was going to try everything he could to manufacture leverage for his client where none really existed prior. The delay happening, from my read of the situation, means UCLA does not believe Chip Kelly is really the long-term answer and is negotiating with that idea in mind. We're at the point now where Kelly and Sexton are running out of leverage (the Oregon saga showed that UCLA is seemingly fine with Kelly leaving of his own accord, so those threats are not particularly useful) and like I said, if Kelly is going to stick around, that extension likely gets signed in the next few weeks. If it gets to January 16th, then all bets are off.
what's your gut feeling?
Also, if UCLA does not believe Chip is the long term answer, then what are they even doing?
My gut feeling? Extension gets signed next Thursday or Friday. I assume with it, Azzinaro will be gone and replaced by Clancy Pendergast.
Even if they do not believe Chip is the long term answer, offering him an extension isn't a bad thing, because in that scenario you would likely be lessening a future buyout and give more flexibility. If you make it incentive-laden (like Harbaugh's extension at Michigan) you can save a lot of money if he flounders but pay appropriate money for success. And a salary increase helps for future coaching hires, both because it shows UCLA is willing to pay solid money for a coach (UCLA right now is paying a top 15 salary in the country for Chip Kelly) and means they can increase the salary for the next coach by I believe 20% without needing BoR approval.
That said, if you are asking me if the smoke around Aranda is legitimate, I honestly believe it is, just because I have heard it mentioned from enough places that I trust to believe there is some truth there.
It seems like coordinators and position coaches, despite their records, move around from one program to another while making hefty six figure incomes -- it's like some kind of coaching fraternity. Meanwhile us working stiffs and entrepreneurs have to work our asses off, and be lucky, to make that kind of $$$!! Think Azz.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I posted a few weeks ago that I was surprised that an extension hadn’t been announced and it feels very much like there’s a real gap in where the two sides are at. I’m happy that Jarmond seems to be holding his ground, but I find it hard to read what will happen. From best to worst though, here’s my thoughts;
Best outcome IMHO is that the 16th rolls around and the Aranda rumours turn out to be true. I’d love to upgrade to a new coach this year and try to start building the program.
Next, I think a Harbough extension us still possible, but for me this is likely just buying time until a change next season. Not the best, not the worst outcome.
I don’t think this will happen, but it could be that the 16th comes and goes with no change. So Kelly goes into his last year as a lame duck. I think his pride won’t let this happen, and although it could potentially save UCLA some money (when replacing him), I think its not a great outcome. It would just mean endless speculation and drama, which is never good for a program.
Last, and I think a real possibility and worry, is that Kelly walks away after the 16th. If Aranda really comes it’s fine, but if that doesn’t happen, it could be ugly. Would there be any credible long-term options left, or would we have to find an interim coach? Imagine competing for talent vs. Riley in this scenario. Ugh.
I think the extension is still likely, but if Jarmond insists on axing Azz (and he should), and Kelly can’t accept that, or if Kelly feels he really deserves a big raise and buyout clause then who knows what happens.
Ok, I had to look this up but I did recall that Carolina hired Matt Ruhle away from Baylor pretty late in that cycle, after the NY6 bowls... turns out that Aranda was hired at Baylor to replace him in 2020 on... wait for it... Jan 16.
can someone point me to these Aranda rumors? Have not found a thing.
If you want an in-public point, your best shot is Bud Elliot, national recruiting guru at 247Sports, who offered up that Aranda to UCLA was a real possibility unprompted on an episode of the Cover 3 Podcast. Elliot said that was the prevailing belief among coaches at the time, and Elliot is a solid reporter who wouldn’t offer up info unless he was confident in it (he’s from the SBN tree that a lot of us came from).
For more underground stuff, I’ve had conversations with people connected to UCLA who have offered up Aranda as a real possibility. I’m not going to say “done deal” by any stretch, but I would not be shocked if some back channel discussions had not occurred, and it would line up with Aranda not having signed an extension that’s been on the table since November.
Would love to see UCLA counter U$C's hyped-up coaching change with a splashy hire of their own by bringing in Aranda and giving notice to high school recruits and college transfers that the Bruins won't be sitting idle and remain satisfied with only beating lowly teams or settling for post-season invitations to toilet bowls. If not, at least get Chip to replace Azzinaro with someone who is competent and can help win games with sound defense.