On Riley: my read on Riley is that his ultimate goal is to get to the NFL, and it would be a real good bullet point to say that he "rebuilt" USC in just a few years. It's also why Caleb Williams to USC makes sense - Riley gets a QB he is familiar with and can mold into a top QB pick, and then can sell himself as a tandem package at the n…
On Riley: my read on Riley is that his ultimate goal is to get to the NFL, and it would be a real good bullet point to say that he "rebuilt" USC in just a few years. It's also why Caleb Williams to USC makes sense - Riley gets a QB he is familiar with and can mold into a top QB pick, and then can sell himself as a tandem package at the next level. And even if Saban is potentially retiring at some point in the future, Riley is likely not a name for that job - Alabama would want someone with SEC experience already (Dabo is the obvious name people point to, but I would think Kiffin or Jimbo are the actual names to watch here).
As for Aranda, few things. One, he still hasn't actually signed an extension, and all reports are that Baylor is planning to offer one at some point in the near future, which are the same reports that existed back in November. Second, yes the SEC is the money conference currently, but I think you grossly underestimate how other jobs are perceived. UCLA, despite the last 20 years, is still a solid job thanks to the intangibles (good pay, prime location, lack of pressure from fans). Remember: UCLA was in a bidding war with Florida for Chip Kelly, and Kelly ultimately chose the Bruins over the Gators. We've discussed the fact that the Pac-12 has been a weak conference for a few years, but it's still a P5 conference, and it would be easier to get to the playoffs by winning the Pac-12 than it would be in a stronger Big 12. Hell, Lincoln Riley was going to become an SEC coach, but he decided trying to compete and win a weaker Pac-12 was a better choice.
Baylor is honestly a tougher job going forward. The SEC is going to have greater access to Texas recruits going forward, which will hurt Baylor, and the conference will be overall stronger than the Pac-12 with the addition of the 4 good AAC squads. Despite Chip Kelly's struggles, Aranda would have greater access to talent at UCLA, and subsequently would have a better shot at competing for playoffs here as well. Hell, with competent defensive coaching this year, UCLA would have easily been a top 15 team, and that's despite four years of Chip Kelly.
I guess my overall point is that UCLA has options if it were to move on from Kelly, despite how late in the process it appears to be.
Re. Riley - I'd guess his "dream job" isn't Alabama, its the Dallas Cowboys. Heck, there was speculation that, had the Cowboys struggled this year as they did in 2020, Riley would have been among the front runners to replace McCarthy now.
Not to mention, if you look at who Alabama has hired since the Bear retired and passed away, nearly all of them were alums/played for Bryant (Perkins, Stallings, DuBose, Shula) or had deep south (Curry) or SEC ties (Saban) - the only times they've gone outside that pattern it... didn't work out so well (has Mike Price left that strip club yet?). Do you really think, once Saban retires they'd want to hire a coach that is widely perceived as ducking the challenge of competing in the SEC? Especially considering he wouldn't have been entering the conference at the helm of a Missouri-level program when they'd have their pick of coaches that would fit what has become their "profile"?
Personally, I think Aranda would be a homerun hire, though I'd guess that the "Harbuagh extension" for Chip is the more likely outcome...
On another point though - would anyone be surprised if Caleb Williams goes somewhere for this year to play and maximise his NIL potential and then re-enters the portal again after the '22 season and goes to play his last year at Alabama to replace Bryce Young once Young declares for the Draft? I know he'd supposedly have to prove "real hardship" to do that - wink wink...
I didn't say they would want to hire Riley. I said Riley would want the job. I'm sure there's about a dozen coaches out there who think they would be a front runner for the job, who just wouldn't be. Riley's ego has to be pretty big right now after the amount of money USC gave him.
I think you are right about Riley at $C, unfortunately, and I also think you're right about his ego - I guess I'm operating under the assumption that it would manifest itself in his thinking he could win a Super Bowl faster than his old college teammate Kliff Kingsbury and succeed where Saban, Meyer, and Spurrier didn't rather than succeeding Saban after a three-peat... a wise old coach once said "you never want to be the guy that follows The Man, you wanna be the guy that follows the guy that followed The Man".
And yeah, I know he followed Stoops at Oklahoma - but that was 17 years after Stoops last won a national title - pretty much the exact same span since $outhern Cal's last title come to think of it...
I guess it's all speculation at this point what is in Aranda's mind. I still don't see how UCLA moves the ball for his career. I think UCLA is actually a destination job, despite not being close to the best job. Nobody is going to come here as a stepping stone, they are hoping to stick around for a decade plus..
On Riley, I have hope you are right and half wrong. On the one hand, I'd love to see him leave because I think he's going to really turn around that program. On the other hand, if the NFL pounces it probably is because he really turned the program around.
On Riley: my read on Riley is that his ultimate goal is to get to the NFL, and it would be a real good bullet point to say that he "rebuilt" USC in just a few years. It's also why Caleb Williams to USC makes sense - Riley gets a QB he is familiar with and can mold into a top QB pick, and then can sell himself as a tandem package at the next level. And even if Saban is potentially retiring at some point in the future, Riley is likely not a name for that job - Alabama would want someone with SEC experience already (Dabo is the obvious name people point to, but I would think Kiffin or Jimbo are the actual names to watch here).
As for Aranda, few things. One, he still hasn't actually signed an extension, and all reports are that Baylor is planning to offer one at some point in the near future, which are the same reports that existed back in November. Second, yes the SEC is the money conference currently, but I think you grossly underestimate how other jobs are perceived. UCLA, despite the last 20 years, is still a solid job thanks to the intangibles (good pay, prime location, lack of pressure from fans). Remember: UCLA was in a bidding war with Florida for Chip Kelly, and Kelly ultimately chose the Bruins over the Gators. We've discussed the fact that the Pac-12 has been a weak conference for a few years, but it's still a P5 conference, and it would be easier to get to the playoffs by winning the Pac-12 than it would be in a stronger Big 12. Hell, Lincoln Riley was going to become an SEC coach, but he decided trying to compete and win a weaker Pac-12 was a better choice.
Baylor is honestly a tougher job going forward. The SEC is going to have greater access to Texas recruits going forward, which will hurt Baylor, and the conference will be overall stronger than the Pac-12 with the addition of the 4 good AAC squads. Despite Chip Kelly's struggles, Aranda would have greater access to talent at UCLA, and subsequently would have a better shot at competing for playoffs here as well. Hell, with competent defensive coaching this year, UCLA would have easily been a top 15 team, and that's despite four years of Chip Kelly.
I guess my overall point is that UCLA has options if it were to move on from Kelly, despite how late in the process it appears to be.
Re. Riley - I'd guess his "dream job" isn't Alabama, its the Dallas Cowboys. Heck, there was speculation that, had the Cowboys struggled this year as they did in 2020, Riley would have been among the front runners to replace McCarthy now.
Not to mention, if you look at who Alabama has hired since the Bear retired and passed away, nearly all of them were alums/played for Bryant (Perkins, Stallings, DuBose, Shula) or had deep south (Curry) or SEC ties (Saban) - the only times they've gone outside that pattern it... didn't work out so well (has Mike Price left that strip club yet?). Do you really think, once Saban retires they'd want to hire a coach that is widely perceived as ducking the challenge of competing in the SEC? Especially considering he wouldn't have been entering the conference at the helm of a Missouri-level program when they'd have their pick of coaches that would fit what has become their "profile"?
Personally, I think Aranda would be a homerun hire, though I'd guess that the "Harbuagh extension" for Chip is the more likely outcome...
On another point though - would anyone be surprised if Caleb Williams goes somewhere for this year to play and maximise his NIL potential and then re-enters the portal again after the '22 season and goes to play his last year at Alabama to replace Bryce Young once Young declares for the Draft? I know he'd supposedly have to prove "real hardship" to do that - wink wink...
I didn't say they would want to hire Riley. I said Riley would want the job. I'm sure there's about a dozen coaches out there who think they would be a front runner for the job, who just wouldn't be. Riley's ego has to be pretty big right now after the amount of money USC gave him.
I think you are right about Riley at $C, unfortunately, and I also think you're right about his ego - I guess I'm operating under the assumption that it would manifest itself in his thinking he could win a Super Bowl faster than his old college teammate Kliff Kingsbury and succeed where Saban, Meyer, and Spurrier didn't rather than succeeding Saban after a three-peat... a wise old coach once said "you never want to be the guy that follows The Man, you wanna be the guy that follows the guy that followed The Man".
And yeah, I know he followed Stoops at Oklahoma - but that was 17 years after Stoops last won a national title - pretty much the exact same span since $outhern Cal's last title come to think of it...
I guess it's all speculation at this point what is in Aranda's mind. I still don't see how UCLA moves the ball for his career. I think UCLA is actually a destination job, despite not being close to the best job. Nobody is going to come here as a stepping stone, they are hoping to stick around for a decade plus..
On Riley, I have hope you are right and half wrong. On the one hand, I'd love to see him leave because I think he's going to really turn around that program. On the other hand, if the NFL pounces it probably is because he really turned the program around.