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Dimitri Dorlis's avatar

I do think it's very fun to play the one-year sample size game when you're comparing teams, it's always a great argument that does not show any problems whatsoever.

For fun, I went and looked back at the KenPom rankings for all the teams you listed last year. Purdue was obviously a top team while SDSU and Florida Atlantic had top 20 years and ultimately were able to parlay those into Final Four runs. As for everyone else:

BYU - 77

Wake Forest - 86

Dayton - 79

Colorado State - 110

New Mexico - 66

Utah State - 28 (this one was surprising to me, but they ended up a 10 seed with a first round exit so there may be some noise in their ranking)

SMU - 183

Nevada - 62

Boise State - 37

So what you're really getting here is a lot of teams that had a big one-year bounce up, but not much sustainable year-over-year success. A lot of that has to do with the new recruiting paradigm: these are the schools that are taking high 3 and low 4 star players, developing them into a winner after a few years, and then losing those talents to bigger schools with more money once they enter the transfer portal, thus starting the whole cycle over again. Ironically, UCLA and Cronin are undergoing something similar, having brought in a lot of developmental guys this last cycle, but they're getting pilloried for it because UCLA fans are so conditioned to having instant results.

Does this mean NIL is not a factor? Absolutely not. If anything, this is underlining that new shift: do you reasonably expect any of these teams to continue being at a top 40 level for the next 2-3 years? Outside of Purdue and SDSU, probably not, especially as good head coaches at these schools are not long for them (for example, look for Dusty May of FAU to get play at Southern Cal when they let go of Enfield after this season). Its why I'm unsure why you'd bring up these schools other than to try and score cheap points without any sort of introspection on why these things are happening.

Now, I do think UCLA's NIL situation in basketball is not as bad as some would have you believe - they're about a top 20 in the nation in terms of money - but they're also not the Top 5 outfit that Cronin and his staff hoped they would be when they went after recruits last cycle and found out they went to a gun fight with a water pistol. It's why we saw the shift in recruiting to international last cycle - they went in on a bunch of the top guys but didn't have the money and it was too late to pivot. It's also why we're seeing another pivot with this cycle - they've only brought in one high school recruit with the idea they will go heavy in the portal to supplement what they've brought in already. I think that's probably the path forward for a UCLA going forward, bringing in a few developmental guys each cycle while bringing in more transfer products with your hopefully-increased NIL pool.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

Is this a path to a consistently successful top tier program?

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Dimitri Dorlis's avatar

The one we're on right now? I think it's a necessary reset to the last three years of chasing a title with the (almost) exact same group of guys, which is not something that happens all that often. UCLA made a Final Four and lost no one from that squad, the next year they only really lost Juzang (and Peyton Watson but he was not a major contributor) and then ran it back one final time. They lost so many major contributors that a reset of some kind was bound to happen.

I do think UCLA is on the path back to that top tier, but that doesn't mean the disappointment you feel in this moment is not valid. I just think everyone bought into the hype that some places were spinning about this team. Somehow, I was actually close with my preseason notes, but they were very much on the low end of expectations and even they look like they'll miss on the offensive side (where I just asked for a top-75 offense, though the defense is holding up its end). I go back to what I put in that season preview, and it still holds true today:

"There’s a lot of talent, but a lot of it is new to the college game and each other. There are going to be plenty of lapses on defense, and moments where the offense doesn’t click. There will be more turnovers, there will be more fouls, and there will be more shots of Cronin yelling on the sidelines. The veteran Cronin players on this team are mostly sophomores. UCLA fans who have enjoyed the past few years are going to have to readjust their viewpoint to allow for growing pains."

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Bruinbaskets's avatar

What makes you think that ucla is on a path back to top tier?

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Dimitri Dorlis's avatar

Besides the trend of general improvement both this year and historically under Cronin (especially for players that are with the program multiple years), I do trust that the general talent level of the players brought in this year gives them a solid floor moving forward and would not have been as noticeable if this team had more veterans to carry the load as in seasons' past (like, imagine how Amari Bailey would have looked if this was his freshman season and not last year, where he was able to improve at his own pace while the veterans carried the load and was thus able to take over more of a scoring load late in the season).

I've also heard enough rumblings from inside the program that Cronin has a better grasp of what he can and can't do given UCLA's current NIL situation, which is why he hasn't gone as hard after high school prospects (Eric Freeny is a good prospect but UCLA only put out seven high school offers total which is really small) and is openly talking about attacking the transfer portal when it opens. Until UCLA improves its NIL to go after the top high school prospects, this looks like a better allocation of their resources to find transfers who fit into the needs.

And then generally I trust Cronin. Dude has a track record of success that is hard to argue with, despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth that is common here whenever something goes bad. Given the entirety of UCLA athletics, I'm more willing to give Cronin the benefit of the doubt than turn things over to an athletic department that consistently fails to fill out the arena for the crown jewel program even when the team is in the Top 5.

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Evan's avatar

Sadly, I think the Cronin haters will probably get their wish in a year or two unless the NIL situation changes. He'll get hired away by another school for more money where he won't be hamstrung. He made a comment a few months ago that he felt like he was the coach of the Cincinnati Reds, meaning that it is hard to compete in a small market when you know you cannot sign the big time free agents.

https://twitter.com/latbbolch/status/1737352694476771736

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Bruinbaskets's avatar

In regards to the recruiting paradigm you mentioned, which talents have been lost to bigger schools over the last 3 years? I can’t think of a single transfer player that was an instant star at a power 5 school. Because of this, I disagree with this theory that non power 5 players are developing into stars that transfer to other schools for money. It’s definitely not common that all these players are being lost from small programs due to money. Again, find me some transfers that changed their new team into a title contender all by themselves… it’s not what’s happening today. It’s why saying that ucla can’t get any transfers because they don’t have money and that’s why they are no good is bogus

UCLA IS going through a similar cycle. They are getting pilloried for it because ucla was once a blue blood school and we are now comparing ucla to fau and sdsu. UCLA hasn’t had any results let alone instant results in 30 years. So no, it’s not because us fans expect instant results. We expect CONSISTENT results as all blue blood schools do. UCLA isn’t a blue blood anymore, so yeah, I’m sorry that my expectations don’t meet those of yours.

I didn’t bring these schools up to score cheap points. I brought them up because these are the best schools to compare ucla to these days. They are the most comparable schools at this point. It’s not a cheap shot, it’s a reality, ucla is not a blue blood anymore.

What recruits did ucla miss out on this year that changed the school they went to? Crickets… Caleb love? I’m honestly not sure what transfers were going to transform this team into a title contender. This team is so bad, one player wasn’t going to make the difference.

UCLA didn’t bring in just a few developmental players. Dylan Andrews, lazar, Mclendon, bona, nwuba… all experienced rotational players.

Even with all of that, you said yourself that ucla is a top 20 nil program. Why do you think their recruiting is so awful? It’s getting worse, even if it’s all the nil fault.

What’s it going to take for you to admit that cronin is bad for ucla? Here’s another bold prediction for you… ucla will be worse off then when cronin started by the time he is gone. He’s going to leave the cupboard completely bare. At least he had a set of players to work with when he arrived. There isn’t going to be anything left by the time he destroys the program.

Cronin is a blue collar coach who came to a white collar school. He’s trying to make it a blue collar program and it’s just not going to work… again, by the time the dust settles, I think you’ll realize cronin really was never that good of a coach. He got lucky with the prior coaches set of players and he’s going to settle in where he belongs… as a mediocre coach at a mediocre program. I just hope that next year is his last so we can find out sooner that I’m right

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Dimitri Dorlis's avatar

Cam Spencer is a guy UCLA went hard after that instead went to UConn and is one of their best players and a reason they are looking to repeat as national champions. Hunter Dickinson is getting NPOY buzz after transferring from Michigan to Kansas. Harrison Ingram went from Stanford to UNC and is doing well for a top team. Caleb Love is Arizona's best player after transferring from UNC. Like, this is not a hard thing to grasp but as we've established you don't actually watch college basketball so you wouldn't know.

And I guess I need to remind everyone that UCLA lost five of their top six contributors from a team that finished #3 in KenPom last year. That level of turnover is unheard of, and yet the fact that UCLA was in that position is never something people seem to give him credit for.

I'm not going to address the rest of your ramblings because, frankly, I don't have the time or patience to sit down and explain how the world works to someone who is unwilling to consider a worldview outside of their own.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

This thread branch has ended, but I want to thank you for always taking the time and consideration to address our questions. This was a very reflective, factual answer.

However.

It didn't answer Baskets' question of talent making an impact transferring from smaller programs to larger programs.

I hope CMC can identify them and bring them on board.

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Dimitri Dorlis's avatar

You can point to Max Abmas at Texas and Dalton Knecht at Tennessee as guys who came from smaller programs and making an impact if you want obvious examples (or, again, Cam Spencer, who went from Loyola Maryland to Rutgers to UConn). Or even forgoing that, the amount of guys who were barely-used at one program and flourished with a change of scenery. Baskets question is just asking me to do homework for him, which is why I'm ignoring it.

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Evan's avatar

At least he finally said the quiet part out loud: "I’ve been a cronin hater from the day he was hired." Didn't give him a chance, didn't change his mind after a final 4 run, wouldn't change his mind with a national championship.

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Clio 98's avatar

Hopefully he'll read the game preview this week when we head to the Palouse to find out about Isaac Jones - all due respect to Idaho of course...

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Evan's avatar

I wouldn't give him so much credit. Asking you to do his homework implies he's actually curious about the facts. This guy has a very pedestrian and limited point of view that is not subject to change.

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Bruinbaskets's avatar

I think you addressed it. You think another 3 star recruit and a transfer from Utah or someone similar next year will get this program all turned around and in tip top shape. I do think it’s funny that you disparage me for having an opinion that differs from yours. At least you put some thought into your answer. I still think you’re wrong. My opinion will take sometime to prove. I won’t do any more name calling, but I reserve the right for I told you so for the rest of time once my predictions come true. I’ve been a cronin hater from the day he was hired. That won’t stop until he has left ucla

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Evan's avatar

that was a brutal take down

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

Laz!

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