The Eye Test: UCLA Comes Back to Earth Against Oregon State

In the process, some long-term questions have come up regarding the continued employment of Chip Kelly.

Carson Steele was one of the lone bright spots for UCLA on Saturday. (Photo credit: @UCLAFootball)

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Whoa, boy, where to begin here?

I’m going to try and refrain from calling for a coach to be fired right now because it’s midseason and I’m willing to let the entire season play out. Believe me, I really really wanted to, but I’m trying something new just to see how it feels.

That said, this was not good! A lot of the things that I mentioned as problems offensively came home to roost for UCLA against Oregon State, and (appropriately) the dam finally broke for the defense after fighting valiantly against fate. The way the loss occurred is not something that inspires much confidence in the rest of the schedule, even if it is playing out exactly how I expected it to in the preseason. Chip Kelly is really struggling to identify the strengths and weaknesses of his offense and how to adapt that to his opponents, which keeps putting the Bruins in early holes that they have to try to dig out of, and the one saving grace has been a rapid improvement by the defense, even if that got some shine knocked off this week by a balanced Oregon State offense.

But let’s get into the details here to better understand what’s going on.

Offense

Quarterback: D-

Before you react, you should know the only reason this grade is not an F is because Collin Schlee looked very good running the ball, and at this point it should be very obvious to everyone involved that the Chip Kelly offense doesn’t seem to work very well unless the quarterback is a threat to run, as it forces the defense to be more honest in its pressures and coverages. Schlee was able to catch the Beavers by surprise several times on his runs before getting injured, and there’s an open question as to how the second half would have gone had Schlee still been available.

That performance only highlighted the problems we’re seeing with Dante Moore. Look, I’m a big supporter of Moore and think that a lot of the issues we’re seeing at the moment are not necessarily his fault, but rather the fault of a coaching staff that really does not understand the personnel they have and are trying to jam square pegs into round holes. That said, he is playing really poorly right now and making a lot of mistakes that feel uncharacteristic for someone with his talent level. He’s locking on to receivers too much and rushing his throws, whether there’s any pressure or not. Again, a lot of this seems to be a learned response to an offensive line that is incapable of providing anything close to decent pass protection, but even that cannot excuse the fact that he threw three more interceptions in this game, including his third pick-six in three games. The first interception was a particularly poor decision, as he had Kam Brown open in the flat for a decent gain but decided to try and throw across his body to Logan Loya down the field, and ended up throwing behind him enough that the defender was able to come in front and make the play.

Again, it’s hard to see the offensive issues as solely the fault of Moore at this point. In rewatching the game, one play stood out to me: on the play immediately prior to the pick-six, Moore stepped up in the pocket and ran for a first down. He could have added an extra five yards or so near the end of the play, but chose to slide early. It’s indicative of a mental place he’s at, where he’s getting hit so much that he’s trying to avoid it as much as possible, and it’s impacting both his game and that of the offense. Frankly, I do not think Ethan Garbers would fare much better in this situation.

Running Backs: B

A bright spot, and I’m not sure why Chip Kelly felt it was bad. Even if you take out Collin Schlee’s explosive plays, this was a solid outing from the running backs, especially Carson Steele who finished with 110 yards on 22 carries for a solid 5 YPC average. It’s more impressive when you realize that the run blocking, like the pass blocking, was pretty poor and that Steele had to fight for a large chunk of those yards. TJ Harden was more limited because he lacks some of the strength of Steele, but he managed to add on nearly 50 more yards, and Keegan Jones saw a little play in the backfield as well.

Receivers: C

The obvious caveat is that this group can only work with the balls being thrown at them. Still, this was the second road game in a row that this group largely disappeared, which is not a good sign for such a highly-touted group coming into the season. With Dante Moore and the offensive line struggling as much as they are, this group really needed to step up, make plays, and get open, and instead, they’ve shrunk to the background.

Offensive Line: F

I think it’s pretty clear at this point that offensive line recruiting and development has missed pretty badly in recent years, as there was no clear plan once the dominant line of the past two years left. Duke Clemens has regressed with this new group, which I guess shouldn’t be surprising considering the level of talent surrounding him, but it’s not a good look for his dwindling draft prospects. The Bruno Fina/Khadere Kounta battle at left tackle is still going on for some reason; I can’t tell if it is because Kelly and Tim Drevno are trying to justify their decision to start Fina at the beginning of the year or because Kounta has been better but not to a noticeable degree. Either way the left tackle spot has been a disaster, and Purdue transfer Spencer Holstege has not been much better at left guard. John Carlin is erratic at right guard but there are no legitimately playable options behind him at the moment so he’s still out there, while Garrett DiGiorgio was fine for spurts of the game and not fine for others.

This group really can’t pass block, and their run blocking is incredibly suspect at the moment; I don’t have the numbers with me, but it felt like a lot of Carson Steele’s yardage came after contact around the line of scrimmage, which isn’t ideal. The question going forward will be if Chip Kelly finally realizes that his offensive line is a sieve and starts scheming around that fact, or if upcoming games against Stanford and Colorado create another false-positive that gets exposed by a solid Arizona front.

Overall: D

I think it’s plays like the second Dante Moore interception that illustrate the failings of this offense at the moment. Look at the initial setup here:

There is at least a recognition that the offensive line could use some help. A tight end was brought onto the line to assumedly chip a potential rusher, while Carson Steele is kept in the backfield at the start despite the Bruins needing 11 yards to pick up a first down.

One second in and we’re immediately in disaster mode. Moore takes a five-step drop from the shotgun in order to buy more time from a leaky offensive line. This puts him 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage, making the throws that much harder. Worse, the extra steps back are not going to help because there is immediate pressure on two fronts. UCLA has seven blockers for five players, and two are already on top of Moore as he gets ready to throw. Even looking down the field, the route combinations seem uninspired, as everything is essentially covered and Moore is being asked to force something that is not there. (Also, for some reason Ryan Cragun is out on the field at this moment instead of a better option like Kyle Ford or Kam Brown, because what would a disastrous UCLA play be without baffling personnel decisions?)

And disaster. Moore is hit two seconds after the ball is snapped despite dropping back out of the shotgun, and the receiver that is supposedly the target has no shot at catching the ball, let alone getting a first down (if you’re stating that Cragan is open at this moment, then just wait a second later for the camera to pan back and show that he was being covered over the top and anything less than a complete bullet into his hands potentially gets intercepted and returned for a touchdown).

The offense is out of sorts in part because so many players are underperforming, from quarterback Dante Moore to the receivers and the entire offensive line. Something has to give here; either they get better in a hurry or UCLA’s season continues to do circles down the drain.

Defense

Run Defense: B-

It was bound to happen eventually, as there would ultimately be a team that was balanced enough in rushing and passing to really test the UCLA defense, and while I think the defense did fine in the grand scheme of things, you could see they had some trouble here. The defensive line was unable to generate the same kind of push in this game that they had in previous outings, particularly whenever Jay Toia was out. If anything, this game really served to highlight just how much better Toia is than the rest of the defensive interior, as he has the size and strength to hold up multiple blockers while a good offensive line can deal with the others in one-on-one settings.

With the defensive line struggling, it also exposed the linebackers to a greater extent. Last week I mentioned that Darius Muasau excels when he doesn’t have to read a defense and can just make a specific play, and this game backed that theory up as he had a very uneven game. Kain Medrano, who felt like one of the defensive MVPs so far this season, also struggled, and it was really only the play of Oluwafemi Oladejo that saved things for this group, which also makes sense since Oladejo has previous P5 experience as Cal Berkeley.

Pass Defense: C

With the run defense not as stout as prior outings, it allowed Oregon State to continually hit at the UCLA defense with play-action passes. The play-action was effective in stifling the UCLA pass rush, and this was finally a game where the defensive ends outside of Laiatu Latu looked overmatched. I feel that’s not surprising considering what we saw all of last year from the Murphy twins, and the fact that they’ve been as good as they have up to this point this year would lead me to believe that some adaptations are coming to get them to contribute more in games where they are out-talented.

The lack of pass rush did affect the secondary, however, and Oregon State had the exact type of receiver that was going to give this group fits. If UCLA had gotten a consistent pass rush, then they would have been able to keep up with the smaller, faster Beaver receivers, but DJ Uiagalelei got enough protection to allow those receivers to find soft spots in the zone coverage.

Overall: C+

I want to also highlight something this game showed: UCLA still lacks a lot of playable depth. When the starters were in, the Bruins were able to keep the Oregon State defense mostly in check, but every time the Bruins tried dipping into that depth, the Beavers were able to strike. This was prevalent up the middle of the defensive line whenever Jay Toia was out, but maybe was most prevalent at safety, where starter Kenny Churchwell did not play and we saw a combination of William Nimmo and Jordan Anderson. I’m not going to say Churchwell has been exceptional, but he’s been steady and solid while on the field; Nimmo and Anderson were simply unable to provide a reasonable facsimile of Churchwell. Now, no team is going to have a perfect roster with perfect depth, but when you miss out on high school recruiting and a handful of transfers like UCLA has, it’s going to make any issues more acute than they normally would have been.

But I also want to point out that UCLA, overall, was okay defensively, and if they weren’t put in such terrible positions in the first half, they might have done enough to win. It’s like the Bruins are living in a mirror dimension of the last few years where even in losses the offense would look fine while the defense looked abysmal. That’s a credit to the turnaround D’Anton Lynn and the defensive staff have done, and an example of how much further they still need to go.

Special Teams

Overall: B

Better outing from this group after the stinker that was the Washington State game. RJ Lopez nailed all his kicks this week, while Will Powers averaged 44 yards on his two punts, not great but certainly better than some of his efforts in previous weeks. Colson Yankoff had a decent kickoff return I guess! Punt coverage had it’s first leak of the year, which is something to monitor.

Coaching

Offensive Playcalling: F

Absolute garbage stuff here, to the point where I have to assume Chip Kelly hates the team he has assembled and recruited.

Let’s set aside the particulars of the Oregon State defense for a second. Let’s even set aside the particular strengths and weaknesses of the UCLA offense. A basic understanding of football would tell you that in order to find success in a road game with a true freshman quarterback, you want to do as much as possible to simplify the game and limit mistakes. Often, this involves a lot of run plays and quick reads and does not often call for longer pass plays where the quarterback has to try and read the defensive backfield while evading pressure. You want your quarterback to be as comfortable as possible because you are typically not counting on him to win the game by himself.

Now let’s start throwing in the variables for this game. First, let’s understand that Dante Moore is a true freshman who is having difficulty reading a defense presnap and is under constant pressure in the pocket because UCLA’s offensive line is allergic to pass blocking against a good team. He is not a running quarterback by any stretch but has shown a little proclivity for throwing on the run. Let’s also understand that Oregon State has a good secondary and their weakness is how they hold up against the run (which is to say, they are fine but this is definitely how you want to attack them). So with that out of the way, let me ask a simple question:

WHY ARE YOU OPENING THE GAME WITH AN EMPHASIS ON PASSING THE BALL???

I am starting to develop a theory about the Chip Kelly offense at UCLA, and it’s not a flattering one for the supposed offensive genius. We know Kelly likes to run the football, and that his offensive scheme in general is built around having a strong rushing attack. But the last few years have featured an NFL-level running back, multiple future pros on the offensive line, and an athletic quarterback who likes to run with the ball. UCLA does not have any of those things this year, and yet Chip Kelly is still calling the offense as if he does. It does not speak well of his ability to adapt to his personnel, and if he’s not going to adapt in the first place, it calls into question why he recruited Dante Moore in the first place beyond simply needing a big recruiting win to hang his hat on. The fact that the offense looked at its best when it mixed in Collin Schlee as a running threat really brought this theory into focus for me, and it’s something I’m going to be watching going forward.

Dante Moore is not a runner. Having him still do read options when everyone on the field knows he is not a threat to pull the ball is asinine, especially when it is rarely used as a play-action concept. At the same time, continuing to have him sit in the pocket when the offensive line is incapable of blocking for the amount of time required for the receivers to get open (because the route concepts being drawn up are ridiculously long instead of providing quick hitters to take advantage of Moore’s accuracy on short and medium throws) is a recipe for disaster. This should not be difficult, and yet here we are.

I will as always mention that Chip Kelly has forgotten more about offensive football than I will ever know, but at the end of the day the performance of the offense is his responsibility, and it is currently not inspiring much confidence.

Defensive Playcalling: C+

This is the first game all season where a team had an answer for what UCLA wants to do on defense, and D’Anton Lynn did not have a counterpunch ready for it. It’s not surprising - he’s a first-year coordinator working under one of the most stubborn coaches in college football - and I’d consider it more of a learning situation than anything. I’ll note that things tightened up in the second half, likely a result of getting to play a normal amount of defense instead of having to constantly perform triage to salvage a mistake by the offense. Doesn’t really diminish my opinion of the defense through six games, but something to monitor in the coming weeks.

Overall: D+

The grade is largely being influenced by the nightmare that is the offense right now, but generally, the team did not look great and I feel a lot of that comes down to the preparation by the coaching staff. As mentioned, the defense did not have a real counterpunch to what Oregon State hit them with, but the bigger issue is the catastrophic failure of the offensive coaching staff when it comes to self-scouting and devising a game plan that can help their young quarterback succeed. It’s not good no matter how you choose to look at it.

Vibes

Vibe check: Resignation

I picked this game as a loss at the beginning of the season. I stated just last week that I felt UCLA could win but would be unsurprised with a loss. But the manner of this loss was more than enough to make me think in the immediate aftermath that we’re reaching the end of the line with Chip Kelly. Again, I’m reserving final judgment here until the season ends, but I’m not sure how one can watch performances like we saw last Saturday and believe this should be the norm in Year Six.

Final Composite

Offense grade: D

Defense grade: C+

Special Teams grade: B

Coaching grade: D+

Vibe check: Resignation

Final grade for Oregon State Beavers: C- (1.74)

For reference, here are the past grades from the season:

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: B- (2.66)

San Diego State Aztecs: A- (3.6)

North Carolina Central Eagles: Pass

Utah Utes: C+ (2.3)

Washington State Cougars: B (2.97)

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We’re at the midpoint of the year, and I think it’s safe to say that UCLA is a fairly above-average team. The defense is vastly improved from a year prior, while the offense has taken a major step back. Maybe more distressingly, that same offense has shown itself to be as plug-and-play as it was believed to be, which calls into question the long-term viability of any of this. Not a great place to be, I must say! Especially since Stanford has shown it is friskier than previously believed. This is absolutely a must-win for the Bruins, and even an unconvincing victory will leave a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

Go Bruins.

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