2023 UCLA Football Season Preview: New Faces, Old Problems

Let's take a general look at the team and what could be in store this season.

UCLA would love another exceptional season from Laiatu Latu on defense. (Photo credit: Don Leibig/uclabruins.com)

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It’s season preview time for UCLA football!

We are a little over one week away from the Bruins once again running onto the Rose Bowl grass, so now is as good a time as any to get into some general thoughts on the team. We’re going to give a quick overview of the offense and defense before diving into a prediction on how the season is going to go. I would consider this something of a companion piece to the Five Questions article from Monday.

(And as per tradition, the now yearly Opener is being written and should arrive before game day. I promise I haven’t been staring at a wall all summer trying to figure out what I’m going to write.)

Let’s get into it!

Offense

It’s kind of funny how I’ve reached the point regarding the offense that I just have complete faith that things will be fine no matter what parts are new. And there’s a lot of new parts this year that should make me worried! Let’s recap:

• Zach Charbonnet is gone, and will be replaced by a tandem of the returning TJ Harden and incoming transfer Carson Steele.

• Jake Bobo is gone, but the Bruins will be trotting out what is easily their most talented wide receiver grouping in ages, led by UC Berkeley transfer J.Michael Sturdivant and Southern Cal transfer Kyle Ford, and bolstered by improved years from guys like Logan Loya, Kam Brown, and Titus Mokiao-Atimalala.

• The offensive line lost three starters, but returns central peg Duke Clemens and brought in a raft of transfers who should (theoretically!) keep things churning.

• Oh yeah, and long-time starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson is gone, and the battle to replace him is seemingly down to former backup Ethan Garbers and true freshman wunderkind Dante Moore.

That’s a lot of changes!

And yet, I’m not particularly worried about the offense for a simple reason: Chip Kelly is still in charge. For all that I gripe about Kelly as the overall leader of the program (and believe me, the list just keeps on growing) I am more than capable of admitting that Kelly is still an offensive genius. Last year’s offense was one of the best in the nation, a unit that was at least top 15 according to every advanced metric (and some had them in the top five, like cfb-graphs and SP+), and that was despite the Bruins not really having standout receivers or tight ends as in previous years. Kelly was able to identify the strengths of his personnel and the weaknesses of his opponents and tailored a game plan week to week that took advantage of those situations. It’s a distinctly NFL approach to offense, but it works incredibly well.

I should also note that, even with a lot of the uncertainty, this has the potential to be the most talented lineup Chip Kelly has ever had to work with. The receiver group, as I’ve said, is the best it has ever been under Kelly, which should open all kinds of things up in the passing game. At quarterback, Kelly has great options between a talented, experienced backup who could flourish with the increased talent around him and a gifted freshman who could feasibly be more talented than the quarterback who just left and is currently lighting up the NFL preseason. Even at running back, losing a singular talent like Charbonnet hurts, but I’m reasonably certain that Harden and Steele can combine to form a reasonable approximation of Charbonnet’s ability.

As usual, there is one spot that could hurt the Bruins this year, and that’s at offensive line. Specifically, the depth at offensive line. I think UCLA’s starting group can perform at a level similar or better than what we saw last year, but should any of them get injured (especially the presumed left tackle starter Khadere Kounta) then things could get really bad in a hurry. UCLA does dodge some of the better defensive lines in the conference this year, but the depth here still does not provide much in the way of confidence should they be required to contribute.

Defense

This is the more interesting group to me, not because there’s a huge change in personnel (there isn’t one) but rather the changes in the coaching staff. UCLA has their third (technically fourth) defensive coordinator in three years, with D’Anton Lynn arriving from the NFL to take over the defense (and also Kodi Whitfield taking over as cornerbacks coach, continuing a trend of making me wonder why Brian Norwood is still on this coaching staff). Lynn does not have any experience as a coordinator but has been getting rave reviews in practice for his approach in teaching the team, and the new hires have created a much-needed youth infusion in the coaching staff on this side of the ball that better mirrors what we’ve seen on the offensive side, where we’ve had young coaches like Jerry Neuheisel, Ryan Gunderson, Jeff Faris, and DeShaun Foster that have helped galvanize the play and recruiting of that side of the ball.

Lynn is going to need to make an impact quickly, however, as UCLA’s positional depth and players are almost the same as last year. The defensive line is exactly the same, with potential conference DPOY Laiatu Latu manning an edge spot, Jay Toia and a (fingers-crossed) healthy Gary Smith clogging up the middle, and the Murphy twins maybe providing solid play on the other side. The linebacker room should benefit from the return of Ale Kaho and the incoming transfer of UC Berkeley linebacker Oluwafemi Oladejo. The secondary is a bit of a mixed bag, as they lost their most consistent player in Stephen Blaylock but should benefit from the departure of human campfire Azizi Hearn, and there’s a bunch of intriguing talent in this group.

A lot of the expectations for the defense is that the floor will be better just because the group has more experience. I’m not sure how much I subscribe to that theory, in part because I do believe talent level is more indicative of productivity rather than experience, but I also don’t think there’s a way for this defense to be worse than last year. They only lost one true impact player, and have replacements available. With Lynn having a defensive backs background, I’d expect this defense to be much better against the pass than they have been, which should stabilize things on this side of the ball. Frankly, if UCLA can get even adequate play from the defense, they could make a lot of noise.

Season Breakdown

All right, now for the moment you’ve all been waiting for. Season prediction time!

Game One: September 2 vs Coastal Carolina

I think a lot of UCLA fans are sleeping on this game just due to the name, but the Chanticleers are a solid Sun Belt team that has won at least nine games each of the past three seasons, including an undefeated regular season in 2020. Grayson McCall, their star quarterback, withdrew from the transfer portal for one more run with the team, which means they’ll be a threat on offense. That said, I can understand why someone would be quick to overlook this game. For one, Jamey Chadwell is no longer the head coach here, and while I think Tim Beck is an adequate replacement who will at least keep the Chanticleers at a solid floor, it is undeniable that the Bruins are dodging a bullet by not having to defend Chadwell’s version of the triple-option in week 1. Plus, the Coastal Carolina defense was not very good last year, and I don’t think it will improve enough this year. So my thoughts are that UCLA should win this one but it will be closer than expected. The defense may struggle for a bit against the kind of chaos quarterback that has traditionally given them fits, and if the offense struggles for most of the game then that’s a huge red flag. (1-0)

Game Two: September 9 at San Diego State

On the flip side of Coastal Carolina, I don’t think San Diego State is as good as most prognosticators, primarily because they have not had much in the way of an offense the past few years. Brady Hoke built that team to be defense first, second, and third, and that’s exactly what they are to a fault. It’s an interesting zig in a conference that has offensive brilliance from Boise State, Air Force, and Fresno State, and it gives the Aztecs a higher floor than average, but the ceiling is lower as a result. They did make a change at offensive coordinator this offseason, but I’m still not sold on this team. Maybe playing at home helps them, but I’m doubtful. (2-0)

Game Three: September 16 vs North Carolina Central

You will come to this game and enjoy another excellent HBCU band. You’ll also probably enjoy UCLA winning comfortably. (3-0)

Game Four: September 23 at Utah

I came into this game expecting a loss, but the more I look at it, the more I can talk myself into UCLA sneaking a win. It probably helps that the Bruins have a defacto bye week the week prior, so they should be relatively healthy going into this game, and while Utah is doing similar, their non-conference schedule is a step up in difficulty thanks to playing Florida at home and traveling to Baylor. The status of Cam Rising is also up in the air, as the Utes have been mum about whether he will be available to start the season opener, and if he is playing what shape will he be in (the Utes have been a much worse team whenever Rising is out). Plus, the Bruins catch Utah early in the schedule when the Utes traditionally are not yet at full death-machine capacity (this same thing happened last year, which is how I can best describe the beatdown in the Rose Bowl that occurred). And yet…the game is still up in Salt Lake City, which means the Bruins are going to be dealing with an extremely hostile crowd in altitude. Ethan Garbers actually started the last time the Bruins played at Utah and looked fine, so maybe this isn’t that big of an ask, but still I have the Bruins losing for now. (3-1)

Bye Week

Not the best spot for Improvement Week, but the Bruins could probably use the extra rest here after traveling to Utah.

Game Five: October 7 vs Washington State

I will always have a soft spot in my heart for the Cougs, and Cam Ward is a perfect chaos quarterback for that program in so many ways. Wazzu also catches the Bruins after a bye, which has always been a weird game for UCLA under Chip Kelly for whatever reason. Still, the Bruins are at home and have more talent, so I’d say they should win this one. (4-1)

Game Six: October 14 at Oregon State

Oh, I have zero confidence in UCLA winning this game. Oregon State is my dark horse pick in the conference, as their defense may be the best in the conference and they may have solved their quarterbacking issues by bringing in DJ Uiagalelei from Clemson. The Beavs did not need a ton of help here - they came back to beat Oregon last year thanks to a superlative late defensive effort and 19 straight run plays - but having a consistent passing threat should make this team very good. Plus this game in Corvallis and yeah, the Bruins can maybe make things close but it’s hard to pick them to win this one. (4-2)

Game Seven: October 21 at Stanford

Stanford is going to be bad. Like, bad bad. Like, competing with Colorado to be the worst team in the conference bad (and oh my god those two teams play the week before SICKOS GAME OF THE YEAR RIGHT THERE). They lost a ton of guys to the portal, and it’s a bit hard for Stanford to restock that way thanks to academic requirements. The Cardinal are undermanned at a lot of positions and breaking in new systems thanks to their new coaching staff. Easy win for the Bruins. (5-2)

Game Eight: October 28 vs Colorado

This is just an exceptionally soft part of the schedule, with the Bruins essentially getting two bye weeks in a row against the two worst teams in the conference. It is nice that Bruin fans will get to see Coach Prime in person before everyone goes their merry way, but that’s about the only thing interesting about this game. (6-2)

Game Nine: November 4 at Arizona

Oh this should be an interesting game. Just like last year, UCLA should have the talent advantage while Arizona will come in with a chip on their shoulders. Unlike last year, I think UCLA will also play with more of an edge after getting pushed around the way they did. This game could come down to whether D’Anton Lynn is as advertised, or at the very least is able to stop UCLA from looking terrible against the various chaos quarterbacks of the conference. (7-2)

Game Ten: November 11 vs Arizona State

I like Kenny Dillingham. I like what he’s done since taking over at Arizona State, and I like the boldness of naming Jaden Rashada the starting quarterback when he has more experienced options available. I also like the fact that UCLA won’t have to deal with Arizona State on the football field after this game. But the Sun Devils overall are rebuilding, so UCLA should win this one handily. I say should because this series has had a tendency of going to the visiting team in recent seasons. (8-2)

Game Eleven: November 18 at Southern Cal

Crosstown Rivalry, anything can happen, but let’s be honest about something: this game is going to come down to which team can figure something out defensively. I’ve seen enough from Alex Grinch over the years to believe that won’t happen regardless of the talent the Trojans bring in, while the jury is currently out on Lynn in this regard. The Bruins had no answers for Caleb Williams and the Southern Cal offense last year, and if Lynn can just generate a few stops, that might be all the Bruins need to win this one. As-is, I don’t know if I can call that happening at the moment. (8-3)

Game Twelve: November 25 vs UC Berkeley

Take the emotions from the Arizona game last year and crank them up. This is nominally a rivalry game, and on top of that Berkeley finds itself on the outside of everything realignment-related, in large part because they suck and have always sucked and will continue to suck no matter how much money they get. I do wish this game could continue going forward, if only because this is currently the second-longest never-interrupted rivalry game in college football. But this could be the last meeting for a bit, so there’s some extra firepower here. But I’m bearish on Berkeley; I don’t think Jake Spavital fixes their anemic offense overnight, especially when their best receiver is now lining up for the Bruins, and the defense has been getting worse by degrees. Justin Wilcox should have taken the Oregon job when he had the chance. (9-3)

A 9-3 record probably leaves the Bruins out of the Pac-12 Title Game, but there’s enough wiggle room in there that they could flip a game or two and get in. I also think the pecking order in the conference is going to be brutal this year, so the Bruins could be looking at a trip to Las Vegas or SoFi Stadium for their bowl game.

That’s your 2023 UCLA Football Preview!

Go Bruins!

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