The Eye Test: The Good Times Continue For UCLA Against Michigan State

The bigger question now is whether this if we can take anything meaningful from the past few weeks.

Cole Martin after UCLA’s fake punt. (Photo credit: uclabruins.com)

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I thought this would be a return to the regular Eye Tests, but there’s going to be a theme to each section this week, because there’s this nagging question in the back of my head following UCLA’s 38-13 victory over Michigan State:

Is this the new normal, or is this run of form just a result of happenstance?

There’s a reason I’m asking this question, because on the one hand, I don’t doubt that UCLA of the past few weeks looks completely different from the one that got blown out at home by New Mexico on a Friday night. The eye test speaks to that fact, as do the stats and, well, the fact that they won. But I run into questions of sustainability when I factor in the opponents. Penn State clearly had the talent to beat UCLA, but they have proven to be mentally fragile in a way that reminds me of the Southern Cal team Chip Kelly beat at the end of his time in Westwood. That victory allowed the athletic department to crow about how things were moving in a positive direction, but anyone paying attention could easily point out that the opponent had clearly quit, and given Penn State just fired James Franklin (a new intriguing option on the Hot Board, which will see an update in November), I am hesitant to say UCLA won that game completely of their own volition. Similarly, Michigan State appears to be rudderless and has a fanbase ready to fire their head coach (Jonathan Smith, rapidly falling down the Hot Board as we speak).

So this Eye Test will have the grades for how UCLA performed in the game, but the analysis will be focused on whether I think this is sustainable or not. Call it tempering expectations if you will, but I think it is important that we protect ourselves from a dead cat bounce before anointing the current interim staff as the next big thing.

Offense

Overall: A-

Sustainable: Maybe?

I went on the record during the last Eye Test, talking about how the new offensive system Jerry Neuheisel is running is more conducive to success with the talent UCLA has, and this game did nothing to dissuade me of that belief. If anything, that belief was reinforced by this game because Nico Iamaleava did not have the best game in the world, and the offense was still humming along. This is not to say he wasn’t good - he was - but he did not have to make ridiculous plays at an unsustainable rate like he did against Penn State to fuel this win. In fact, Iamaleava barely ran the ball, as Michigan State was clearly wary of his legs going into this game, and instead calmly picked apart the Spartan secondary with a mix of short to intermediate passes.

Now here’s the part that worries me. The worst defense UCLA will play the rest of the season is Southern Cal, which ranks 45th defensively in SP+. Four of the remaining six rank in the top 20 (Ohio State at 2, Indiana at 5, Nebraska at 18, and Maryland at 20), with Washington sitting just outside that at 26th. Penn State’s defense ranks 21st at this point, which you can point out optimistically, but I would also remind you that UCLA had the element of surprise in that game. After the half, Penn State mostly contained the Bruins, who scored only 15 points compared to 27 in the first half and saw their total yardage almost cut in half.

So the question is: can UCLA keep finding answers offensively in the future? It’s hard to say, but I’m more optimistic here, mostly because I’ve seen the N-Zone before. There are still facets of the offense that have yet to be unlocked, such as more of a deep passing game and a wider assortment of screens to take advantage of various pressures that will be thrown at them. Having Noel Mazzone in the building will help in the teaching of the scheme, and so far, Jerry has a pretty good understanding of what plays to call in which situation, which was always a failing of his mentor. That’s going to be tested in the coming weeks; I think UCLA should be able to move the ball on Maryland, but the degree to which they are able to do so against Indiana will speak more about the long-term prospects of this group.

Defense

Overall: A

Sustainable: Probably not

Michigan State is a bad offense. Aiden Chiles is not a good quarterback. I think that answers what happened here, but you do credit the UCLA defense for making Michigan State look just as bad as they actually are.

That said, this performance is more of an aberration than anything. Penn State, a generally good offensive team that plays conservatively to a fault, was still able to rack up 357 yards of offense despite the best efforts of its coaching staff, and UCLA will be playing several good offenses down the stretch manned by coaches who have a brain. The defense should be able to hold up against Maryland, with an offense that ranks 57th in SP+, but Indiana (12), Ohio State (8), Washington (17), and Southern Cal (1) all loom in the future. Washington, in particular, will be a fascinating game, as Jedd Fisch will likely be using that game as an in-person interview with UCLA brass.

The defense has been doing some good things of late, showing much more aggression and assertiveness than they had in the previous weeks, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that UCLA’s gambling ways are going to bite them in the future. To be honest, I also don’t have a problem with this; given UCLA’s talent level on defense, this team should be trying whatever they can to generate havoc on defense and cause problems for the opposing offense. If they get burned in the process, that’s ultimately fine, because the team is more likely to generate positive plays as well compared to a more conservative style.

Special Teams

Overall: B+

Sustainable: Yes

The grade is getting dinged for Mateen Bhaghani missing a pretty easy kick from 34 yards out, but overall, it’s hard to be too mad with his performance so far this year. Out of everyone on the team, Money Bhags has lived up to his billing, and I can’t see him suddenly hitting a rut. Will Karoll has been solid all year, and the one punt he had blocked was more due to lackadaisical punt blocking than anything he did, so I’d expect that to continue as well. UCLA’s return game is non-existent, and I can’t see that changing. The coverage team has been solid. This was the one facet of the game UCLA has done well at since the start of the season, so it’s also the one I am the most positive about.

Coaching

Overall: A

Sustainable: Probably, but it might not matter much

I think there is an open question of what sustainable for the coaching staff means in the context of this exercise.

If you’re talking about the team continuing to look like it knows what it’s doing and playing with more confidence, sure, I think that’s sustainable. Tim Skipper has shown himself to be a much better teacher than Deshaun Foster (same with Jerry Neuheisel compared to Tino Sunseri), and that has led to a team that is playing with confidence because they are confident in the things they’re being taught to do. Let’s use special teams as an example. UCLA has executed two trick punts in two weeks, and it goes beyond calling the play at the right moment; both punts were executed brilliantly by a team that was clearly coached on how to make the play work. Penalties are also down (except for Courtland Ford, but he’s also a former Trojan, so that’s just a learned behavior at this point), which is always a good sign.

I think you can also expect Skipper and his staff will continue to follow the analytics when making their decisions, which I appreciate. UCLA has typically made smart decisions on whether to go for a conversion or not, and has picked smart times to be aggressive on special teams. Foster had started to trend in a more positive direction on this front, but Skipper has been clear on that focus from the start, and much like with how they approach teaching the concepts to the team, this mindset of being aggressive has resonated with the players and led to improved play.

On the flip side, I don’t know how much more Skipper will be able to get away with. Maryland is in a similar situation to Michigan State with their coaching staff, and Penn State just fired its coach, so the good times will likely roll for another week in this regard. But next week, UCLA faces Curt Cignetti, one of the best coaches in the game today. They follow it up with Matt Rhule, who is gettable but is a great program builder on his own. Then you get Ryan Day, Jedd Fisch, and Lincoln Riley to close out the year. The level of competition from a coaching standpoint is shooting way up, and I think it is an open question not only whether Skipper can maintain this aggressive and smart coaching style against that run of opponents, but whether that group will put up with it. In particular, I think Indiana will be a rude awakening for so many involved with UCLA, as that coaching staff is one of the most prepared ones in the country. In fact, I would not count on seeing Martin Jarmond anywhere in Bloomington that weekend, frontrunner that he is.

Trend

Trending: Up

Sustainable: Hard not to

Here’s the thing about the rest of the season for UCLA: there is nothing Skipper and company can do that would make things worse on the field than they were under Foster. All this coaching staff has to do is put out a base level of competency during games and UCLA fans would be happy to get through the season. Most of them are waiting for the offseason anyway to find out what UCLA is going to do with their head coaching vacancy, so you just need to look like you know what you’re doing and it’ll be fine.

Which gets me back to the original problem here. UCLA threw away two years with Martin Jarmond’s nonsensical decision to hire Deshaun Foster as head coach. The season is already lost, so even if this is a dead cat bounce, you can at least enjoy the ride.

Final Composite

Offense grade: A- (3.7)

Defense grade: A (4.0)

Special Teams grade: B+ (3.3)

Coaching grade: A (4.0)

Trending: Up

Final grade for Michigan State Spartans: A (3.84)

And here is how the grades have looked this season:

Utah Utes: D- (0.6)

UNLV Rebels: D- (0.6)

New Mexico Lobos: F (0.0)

Northwestern Wildcats: F (0.0)

Penn State Nittany Lions: A- (3.54)

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Maryland is a winnable game, which is not something I would have said a month ago. It’s not just that UCLA has improved considerably in the past few weeks; you can set your watch to the consistency in which the goliath that is September Maryland shrinks back into a pumpkin once October hits. This is not to say Maryland will be a pushover - far from it - but that I don’t think you’re going to get much conclusive data with a win here.

Then again, we’re all stuck on the ride this year anyway. Might as well try and enjoy it.

Go Bruins!

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