Since you're not willing to write about his actual negatives, I will:
- Finishes runs through contact well but isn't really elusive at all, isn't going to make guys miss at a high rate in the NFL. He takes what he's given which is valuable but he doesn't create much beyond that.
- Good vision and hits the right hole more often than not, but isn't that explosive so when he gets to the second level he's not going to out-run defensive backs, or even most new-age linebackers.
- Solid hands but inconsistent pass protection and isn't an active weapon in the receiving game, doesn't add much there and that's the most important thing for running back prospects nowadays unless you're an elite-elite runner like Jonathan Taylor.
Overall I like Kelley, he's a smart and patient runner, but he's got a pretty low upside because of his lack of explosion and dynamism. I think I compared him to somewhere between Jordan Howard and Lamar Miller, and I think that's what his likely range of outcomes is. Which, for the record, is a huge win. Those are both second contract running backs. He's personally my 8th running back, maybe 9th. Also, as the case is with literally every running back prospect outside of McCaffrey, it depends on the offensive structure he's drafted into. I get this is a UCLA site, but that doesn't mean you can't try to be at least a little objective.
I'll take those "negatives" and spin them though, because they apply to someone whom I compared Josh to on many occasions, Terrell Davis. TD was not a highly regarded pro prospect, being just a 6th round draft pick, and he made the Broncos squad for his special teams play in preseason, and not for his running prowess. He was not so solid that he was ever gonna truck anyone in a hole, and he was no Barry Sanders that would leave the defense whiffing on a tackle, and he was no Thurman Thomas that was as much of a threat to catch the ball as run it. But TD had a skill set that ended up fitting the Broncos perfectly. He was committed to a hole while being patient enough to let it develop, and he'd make one cut and go. If the hole wasn't there, he'd find any small seam and keep his momentum moving forward to ensure he would get a yard or two and get tackled forward for another yard. But if the hole developed, he was already through it and at the level of the linebackers, and he had sufficient speed to turn that 4-5 yard run into 15-20 yds, or if he got a seam into the secondary, it was 40-50. And that's the kind of stuff I saw with Kelley. He didn't dance around in the backfield, he was almost always moving forward at contact so when he was hit he still got an extra yard or two on the play, he committed to a play design and made one cut and was upfield, hole or not, but when that play design hit and opened up he could flash through the hole and outrun LBs and safeties and turn average plays into big big gains. Kelley was no slouch. He did have back to back 1,000 yard seasons for an often anemic offense.
Of course TD turned those relatively modest skills into a starting job, then a 2000 yard season, a league MVP, 2 Super Bowls, a Super Bowl MVP, and a bust in Canton. Efficiency became Hall of Fame. Not saying Josh is doing that too, but a running back doesn't need to be Barry Sanders or Jerome Bettis or Thurman Thomas. He needs to be efficient, smart, patient while committed, and that can make a serviceable running back or better become a solid offensive weapon. I think that's exactly Josh. Oh, and a then having a great offensive line turns that into something spectacular.
Yeah I certainly didn't mean for it to seem like I thought he was bad. If he turns out to be Jordan Howard that's a successful career. But he definitely does have a few things going against him that are likely to hold him back from being a "star". You saw it yesterday - teams don't value running backs unless they are active weapons in the pass game like Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I think Kelley could make a nice career for himself but don't see him ever being that kind of three-down weapon.
But your points are all fair for the most part and he certainly is capable of being better than Jordan Howard and having a great career. I will say though, not to get too wrapped up in his college production - Paul Perkins was a lot better as a college running back and didn't do much of anything in the NFL. They aren't similar runners but both lack that elite explosiveness and athleticism, so I think that's one area that really hinders a running back making the jump to the next level where linebackers are running in the 4.4's now.
Good points, ASDK, esp about the advantage of RBs being receiving threats. There are a whole lot of capable ball carriers both in and out of the NFL. But we can all look at Christian's McCaffrey's new K and see what being a true dual threat means.
Since you're not willing to write about his actual negatives, I will:
- Finishes runs through contact well but isn't really elusive at all, isn't going to make guys miss at a high rate in the NFL. He takes what he's given which is valuable but he doesn't create much beyond that.
- Good vision and hits the right hole more often than not, but isn't that explosive so when he gets to the second level he's not going to out-run defensive backs, or even most new-age linebackers.
- Solid hands but inconsistent pass protection and isn't an active weapon in the receiving game, doesn't add much there and that's the most important thing for running back prospects nowadays unless you're an elite-elite runner like Jonathan Taylor.
Overall I like Kelley, he's a smart and patient runner, but he's got a pretty low upside because of his lack of explosion and dynamism. I think I compared him to somewhere between Jordan Howard and Lamar Miller, and I think that's what his likely range of outcomes is. Which, for the record, is a huge win. Those are both second contract running backs. He's personally my 8th running back, maybe 9th. Also, as the case is with literally every running back prospect outside of McCaffrey, it depends on the offensive structure he's drafted into. I get this is a UCLA site, but that doesn't mean you can't try to be at least a little objective.
I'll take those "negatives" and spin them though, because they apply to someone whom I compared Josh to on many occasions, Terrell Davis. TD was not a highly regarded pro prospect, being just a 6th round draft pick, and he made the Broncos squad for his special teams play in preseason, and not for his running prowess. He was not so solid that he was ever gonna truck anyone in a hole, and he was no Barry Sanders that would leave the defense whiffing on a tackle, and he was no Thurman Thomas that was as much of a threat to catch the ball as run it. But TD had a skill set that ended up fitting the Broncos perfectly. He was committed to a hole while being patient enough to let it develop, and he'd make one cut and go. If the hole wasn't there, he'd find any small seam and keep his momentum moving forward to ensure he would get a yard or two and get tackled forward for another yard. But if the hole developed, he was already through it and at the level of the linebackers, and he had sufficient speed to turn that 4-5 yard run into 15-20 yds, or if he got a seam into the secondary, it was 40-50. And that's the kind of stuff I saw with Kelley. He didn't dance around in the backfield, he was almost always moving forward at contact so when he was hit he still got an extra yard or two on the play, he committed to a play design and made one cut and was upfield, hole or not, but when that play design hit and opened up he could flash through the hole and outrun LBs and safeties and turn average plays into big big gains. Kelley was no slouch. He did have back to back 1,000 yard seasons for an often anemic offense.
Of course TD turned those relatively modest skills into a starting job, then a 2000 yard season, a league MVP, 2 Super Bowls, a Super Bowl MVP, and a bust in Canton. Efficiency became Hall of Fame. Not saying Josh is doing that too, but a running back doesn't need to be Barry Sanders or Jerome Bettis or Thurman Thomas. He needs to be efficient, smart, patient while committed, and that can make a serviceable running back or better become a solid offensive weapon. I think that's exactly Josh. Oh, and a then having a great offensive line turns that into something spectacular.
Yeah I certainly didn't mean for it to seem like I thought he was bad. If he turns out to be Jordan Howard that's a successful career. But he definitely does have a few things going against him that are likely to hold him back from being a "star". You saw it yesterday - teams don't value running backs unless they are active weapons in the pass game like Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I think Kelley could make a nice career for himself but don't see him ever being that kind of three-down weapon.
But your points are all fair for the most part and he certainly is capable of being better than Jordan Howard and having a great career. I will say though, not to get too wrapped up in his college production - Paul Perkins was a lot better as a college running back and didn't do much of anything in the NFL. They aren't similar runners but both lack that elite explosiveness and athleticism, so I think that's one area that really hinders a running back making the jump to the next level where linebackers are running in the 4.4's now.
Good points, ASDK, esp about the advantage of RBs being receiving threats. There are a whole lot of capable ball carriers both in and out of the NFL. But we can all look at Christian's McCaffrey's new K and see what being a true dual threat means.