Since you're not willing to write about his actual negatives, I will:
- Finishes runs through contact well but isn't really elusive at all, isn't going to make guys miss at a high rate in the NFL. He takes what he's given which is valuable but he doesn't create much beyond that.
- Good vision and hits the right hole more often than not, but isn't that explosive so when he gets to the second level he's not going to out-run defensive backs, or even most new-age linebackers.
- Solid hands but inconsistent pass protection and isn't an active weapon in the receiving game, doesn't add much there and that's the most important thing for running back prospects nowadays unless you're an elite-elite runner like Jonathan Taylor.
Overall I like Kelley, he's a smart and patient runner, but he's got a pretty low upside because of his lack of explosion and dynamism. I think I compared him to somewhere between Jordan Howard and Lamar Miller, and I think that's what his likely range of outcomes is. Which, for the record, is a huge win. Those are both second contract running backs. He's personally my 8th running back, maybe 9th. Also, as the case is with literally every running back prospect outside of McCaffrey, it depends on the offensive structure he's drafted into. I get this is a UCLA site, but that doesn't mean you can't try to be at least a little objective.
I'll take those "negatives" and spin them though, because they apply to someone whom I compared Josh to on many occasions, Terrell Davis. TD was not a highly regarded pro prospect, being just a 6th round draft pick, and he made the Broncos squad for his special teams play in preseason, and not for his running prowess. He was not so solid that he was ever gonna truck anyone in a hole, and he was no Barry Sanders that would leave the defense whiffing on a tackle, and he was no Thurman Thomas that was as much of a threat to catch the ball as run it. But TD had a skill set that ended up fitting the Broncos perfectly. He was committed to a hole while being patient enough to let it develop, and he'd make one cut and go. If the hole wasn't there, he'd find any small seam and keep his momentum moving forward to ensure he would get a yard or two and get tackled forward for another yard. But if the hole developed, he was already through it and at the level of the linebackers, and he had sufficient speed to turn that 4-5 yard run into 15-20 yds, or if he got a seam into the secondary, it was 40-50. And that's the kind of stuff I saw with Kelley. He didn't dance around in the backfield, he was almost always moving forward at contact so when he was hit he still got an extra yard or two on the play, he committed to a play design and made one cut and was upfield, hole or not, but when that play design hit and opened up he could flash through the hole and outrun LBs and safeties and turn average plays into big big gains. Kelley was no slouch. He did have back to back 1,000 yard seasons for an often anemic offense.
Of course TD turned those relatively modest skills into a starting job, then a 2000 yard season, a league MVP, 2 Super Bowls, a Super Bowl MVP, and a bust in Canton. Efficiency became Hall of Fame. Not saying Josh is doing that too, but a running back doesn't need to be Barry Sanders or Jerome Bettis or Thurman Thomas. He needs to be efficient, smart, patient while committed, and that can make a serviceable running back or better become a solid offensive weapon. I think that's exactly Josh. Oh, and a then having a great offensive line turns that into something spectacular.
Since you're not willing to write about his actual negatives, I will:
- Finishes runs through contact well but isn't really elusive at all, isn't going to make guys miss at a high rate in the NFL. He takes what he's given which is valuable but he doesn't create much beyond that.
- Good vision and hits the right hole more often than not, but isn't that explosive so when he gets to the second level he's not going to out-run defensive backs, or even most new-age linebackers.
- Solid hands but inconsistent pass protection and isn't an active weapon in the receiving game, doesn't add much there and that's the most important thing for running back prospects nowadays unless you're an elite-elite runner like Jonathan Taylor.
Overall I like Kelley, he's a smart and patient runner, but he's got a pretty low upside because of his lack of explosion and dynamism. I think I compared him to somewhere between Jordan Howard and Lamar Miller, and I think that's what his likely range of outcomes is. Which, for the record, is a huge win. Those are both second contract running backs. He's personally my 8th running back, maybe 9th. Also, as the case is with literally every running back prospect outside of McCaffrey, it depends on the offensive structure he's drafted into. I get this is a UCLA site, but that doesn't mean you can't try to be at least a little objective.
I'll take those "negatives" and spin them though, because they apply to someone whom I compared Josh to on many occasions, Terrell Davis. TD was not a highly regarded pro prospect, being just a 6th round draft pick, and he made the Broncos squad for his special teams play in preseason, and not for his running prowess. He was not so solid that he was ever gonna truck anyone in a hole, and he was no Barry Sanders that would leave the defense whiffing on a tackle, and he was no Thurman Thomas that was as much of a threat to catch the ball as run it. But TD had a skill set that ended up fitting the Broncos perfectly. He was committed to a hole while being patient enough to let it develop, and he'd make one cut and go. If the hole wasn't there, he'd find any small seam and keep his momentum moving forward to ensure he would get a yard or two and get tackled forward for another yard. But if the hole developed, he was already through it and at the level of the linebackers, and he had sufficient speed to turn that 4-5 yard run into 15-20 yds, or if he got a seam into the secondary, it was 40-50. And that's the kind of stuff I saw with Kelley. He didn't dance around in the backfield, he was almost always moving forward at contact so when he was hit he still got an extra yard or two on the play, he committed to a play design and made one cut and was upfield, hole or not, but when that play design hit and opened up he could flash through the hole and outrun LBs and safeties and turn average plays into big big gains. Kelley was no slouch. He did have back to back 1,000 yard seasons for an often anemic offense.
Of course TD turned those relatively modest skills into a starting job, then a 2000 yard season, a league MVP, 2 Super Bowls, a Super Bowl MVP, and a bust in Canton. Efficiency became Hall of Fame. Not saying Josh is doing that too, but a running back doesn't need to be Barry Sanders or Jerome Bettis or Thurman Thomas. He needs to be efficient, smart, patient while committed, and that can make a serviceable running back or better become a solid offensive weapon. I think that's exactly Josh. Oh, and a then having a great offensive line turns that into something spectacular.