UCLA Football: RB Joshua Kelley NFL Draft Profile
Former Bruin running back Josh Kelley might just be the steal of this year's draft
(Photo Credit: Greg Turk/UCLA Athletics)
UCLA running back Josh Kelley is a guy whose draft stock is rising. That’s because Kelley had strong showings at both the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein calls Kelley “a coveted Day 3 pick.”
But Bruin fans might argue that Kelley’s stock has been a bull market pick before the transfer from UC Davis ever arrived on campus.
It’s no secret that Kelley almost willed himself onto the Bruin football team when he decided to transfer and, though he suffered a slight setback during the first half of Chip Kelly’s first season in Westwood, Josh’s relentlessly positive attitude and solid work ethic resulted in him eventually finding his way into the starting lineup in a big way and he capped the 2018 season by rushing for 289 yards against Southern Cal, which is the most in the history of the Crosstown Showdown. Kelley finished the 2018 season with almost 1250 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns.
He followed up the 2018 season with an almost identical 2019. To be sure, he didn’t have another 250-yard game like he did against Southern Cal in 2018, but he had almost an identical number of carries with 12 touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards on the season.
The one area where Kelley’s performance dropped off was in receptions. After making 27 receptions for 193 yards in 2018, he only had 11 receptions for 71 yards in 2019. In all likelihood, that can probably be explained by the fact that Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over as the starting quarterback following the departure of Wilton Speight.
Tale of the Tape
Let’s look at Kelley’s physical stats, courtesy of NFL.com.
Height: 5’ 11”
Weight: 212 lbs.
Arms: 31-5/8”
Hands: 9-5/8”
Weaknesses
Gee, trying to write about Josh Kelley’s weaknesses is tough. I guess if I have to pick something I might mention the fact that Kelley did get a little banged up at times during his career at UCLA. At the same time, that shouldn’t be taken as an indication that Kelley is injury-prone. That’s not the case.
After all, he did play in twenty-two of UCLA’s twenty-four games over the past two seasons. But his bruising running style does mean that his body will take a beating over the course of a season.
In fact, as if to show that Kelley doesn’t have many weaknesses, NFL.com’s draft profile on Kelley lists one of his weaknesses as “Doesn't try to make many people miss” while mentioning his “Strong lower body to dismiss upper body tackles” as a strength. That sounds like two sides of the same coin in my book. It’s almost as if they were struggling to find something to list as a weakness Kelley has.
NFL Combine Physical Test Results
Let’s look at Kelley’s results from the NFL Combine, courtesy of NFL.com.
40-Yard Dash: 4.49 Seconds
Bench Press: 23 reps
Vertical Jump: 31.0 Inches
Broad Jump: 121.0 Inches
3-Cone Drill: 6.95 Seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.28 Seconds
Strengths
Josh Kelley is a bruising physical back who doesn’t shy away from making contact with defenders. He uses his lower body strength to keep the pile moving forward. Ultimately, his power and nose for the end zone could turn him into short yardage specialist on the goal line for whatever NFL team ends up drafting him.
While those are his physical strengths, it would be tough to write about Kelley without also talking about another important strength Kelley has which is sure to result in him being drafted sooner than NFL.com’s projection of the fifth round. That strength is his attitude.
Kelley is one of the most relentlessly positive guys you will find. His personality is contagious and I won’t be surprised to see a team grab him on Day 2 of the Draft simply because they don’t want to wait longer and risk missing out on being able to select him. In fact, I’d take it even a step further by saying that Kelley’s attitude positivity and constant smile is an NFL general manager’s dream and it’s what makes me think that teams will not let Kelley fall to the third day of the draft.
Go Bruins!!!
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I'll take those "negatives" and spin them though, because they apply to someone whom I compared Josh to on many occasions, Terrell Davis. TD was not a highly regarded pro prospect, being just a 6th round draft pick, and he made the Broncos squad for his special teams play in preseason, and not for his running prowess. He was not so solid that he was ever gonna truck anyone in a hole, and he was no Barry Sanders that would leave the defense whiffing on a tackle, and he was no Thurman Thomas that was as much of a threat to catch the ball as run it. But TD had a skill set that ended up fitting the Broncos perfectly. He was committed to a hole while being patient enough to let it develop, and he'd make one cut and go. If the hole wasn't there, he'd find any small seam and keep his momentum moving forward to ensure he would get a yard or two and get tackled forward for another yard. But if the hole developed, he was already through it and at the level of the linebackers, and he had sufficient speed to turn that 4-5 yard run into 15-20 yds, or if he got a seam into the secondary, it was 40-50. And that's the kind of stuff I saw with Kelley. He didn't dance around in the backfield, he was almost always moving forward at contact so when he was hit he still got an extra yard or two on the play, he committed to a play design and made one cut and was upfield, hole or not, but when that play design hit and opened up he could flash through the hole and outrun LBs and safeties and turn average plays into big big gains. Kelley was no slouch. He did have back to back 1,000 yard seasons for an often anemic offense.
Of course TD turned those relatively modest skills into a starting job, then a 2000 yard season, a league MVP, 2 Super Bowls, a Super Bowl MVP, and a bust in Canton. Efficiency became Hall of Fame. Not saying Josh is doing that too, but a running back doesn't need to be Barry Sanders or Jerome Bettis or Thurman Thomas. He needs to be efficient, smart, patient while committed, and that can make a serviceable running back or better become a solid offensive weapon. I think that's exactly Josh. Oh, and a then having a great offensive line turns that into something spectacular.
Since you're not willing to write about his actual negatives, I will:
- Finishes runs through contact well but isn't really elusive at all, isn't going to make guys miss at a high rate in the NFL. He takes what he's given which is valuable but he doesn't create much beyond that.
- Good vision and hits the right hole more often than not, but isn't that explosive so when he gets to the second level he's not going to out-run defensive backs, or even most new-age linebackers.
- Solid hands but inconsistent pass protection and isn't an active weapon in the receiving game, doesn't add much there and that's the most important thing for running back prospects nowadays unless you're an elite-elite runner like Jonathan Taylor.
Overall I like Kelley, he's a smart and patient runner, but he's got a pretty low upside because of his lack of explosion and dynamism. I think I compared him to somewhere between Jordan Howard and Lamar Miller, and I think that's what his likely range of outcomes is. Which, for the record, is a huge win. Those are both second contract running backs. He's personally my 8th running back, maybe 9th. Also, as the case is with literally every running back prospect outside of McCaffrey, it depends on the offensive structure he's drafted into. I get this is a UCLA site, but that doesn't mean you can't try to be at least a little objective.