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Nov 28, 2022
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mgibby's avatar

61st? Holy shit. What terrible recruiting.

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Evan's avatar

in fairness, Chip does take advantage of the transfer portal so he purposely leaves scholarships available. The recruiting ranking services reward quantity in addition to quality. Most of our quality comes from the portal. Not ideal, but it's the reality, and he does a pretty good job taking advantage of it even if we'd prefer to lock in blue chip talent for 4 years. You can bet that our starting QB, possibly RB, and probably a WR will come from the portal.

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BigB88's avatar

I'm not sure what you are looking at, but Kelly has done literally nothing in the portal. I guess you are just measuring how many players he loses vs how many players he gains? That I will admit, he gains more than he loses because more players have a better chance to play at UCLA vs ride a bench at a better football school. That's the only reason he gets more players, but most of the players are 2* and 3* and washed out at their other schools. In other words, they weren't good enough at their old schools.

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Evan's avatar

Jake Bobo is nothing? Zach Charbonnet is nothing? The Murphy twins are nothing? Sykes? Brown? Latu? Yeah, lots of 2 stars in that group. Literally what are you talking about? Chip pulled in the 6th ranked transfer class in 2022. The only teams that were ranked higher are USC, Ole Miss, LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama. Seriously, where do you get your info?

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BigB88's avatar

You tell me their accomplishments then. I don't see any, 6th place in the Pac-12 isn't an accomplishment. So yes, they are NOTHNG.

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Evan's avatar

lol, you got hit with facts and so now you pivot to the team's record. Here's their accomplishments though:

Jake Bobo: 54 receptions, 789 yards, 7 TD, possible NFL draft pick

Zach Charbonnet: 1359 rush yards, 321 receiving yards 14 rush TDs

Laiatu Latu: 9.5 sacks

PWN3D!

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gbruin's avatar

PWN3D? What are you, Evan, 12? Come on. I've seen you bristle pretty hard when presented with numbers yourself, so relax. Let's all just have conversations here. No one is winning. No one is losing.

I agree with your point that Kelly has brought in some good players through the transfer portal, Zach being the highlight of that group and one who contributed greatly to our offensive success this year. I will also point out that Kelly's anemic recruiting and talent acquisition (portal or not) on the defensive side was THE biggest reason that this team finished in the middle of the Pac instead of having one more game this Friday. When faced with explosive offenses, our defense was severely lacking speed and high end talent and game changers. And that's entirely on Kelly.

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bruinballer's avatar

surely you see Zach as a draft pick as well, Evan. He's a fourth year senior, so unless he has some kind of covid-year deal like DTR, certainly he's gonna play in the bigs

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gbruin's avatar

Out recruited by Colorado? Many of their current recruits committed under Karl Dorrell. Good god...

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Lisa Horne's avatar

The Rose Bowl will pick Washington to play Ohio State IF USC wins out.

Oregon will play in Holiday Bowl

Oregon State to Las Vegas Bowl or Sun Bowl

UCLA to Sun Bowl, if Beavers go to Las Vegas Bowl

Utah to Alamo Bowl v Texas (this one is too easy if Utes lose in P12CC)

Wazzu to LA bowl v Boise State

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

Is the Sun > Las Vegas in the Bowl hierarchy?

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gbruin's avatar

After the Rose Bowl, which maybe we'll play in again some year, the order is...

Alamo

Holiday

Las Vegas

Sun

LA Bowl

First Responder/others

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

Thanks g.

Kimmel Bowl must be somewhere waaaay down there.

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gbruin's avatar

Oops, sorry, the the Kimmel Bowl and the LA Bowl are the same. I didn't clarify that enough.

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gbruin's avatar

Why wouldn't Utah get the Rose Bowl, Lisa? They would be the conference 2nd place team if *$c wins and goes to the CFP (please, no...please, no). Why the attraction for the Alamo Bowl for Utah?

I would guess that UCLA would be more attractive to the LV Bowl that Oregon State due to proximity and DTR coming home. Granted, UCLA's fan base is comatose right now, but it's still better than OSU's, isn't it?

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Lisa Horne's avatar

Washington is 10-2 overall. Utah is 9-3 overall. Yes, Utah is second place when it comes to conference tie-breakers in determining who plays in the Pac-12 championship BUT... Washington has the better record.

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gbruin's avatar

Ah, got it. Many thanks!

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Evan's avatar

Rose Bowl would pick Utah. It has no obligation to look at records or tie breakers. They get first choice so they would obviously go with the Pac 12 runner up.

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Lisa Horne's avatar

I disagree. If Utah loses in the Pac-12 Championship to USC, the Utes will have had 4 losses. There is NO way the Rose Bowl committee picks a 4-loss Utah over a 2- loss Washington.

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Evan's avatar

you are just looking at numbers. Utah will be the conference runner up -- i.e. #2 -- and they are not going to be penalized for their 4th loss coming in the added championship game (in which UW would get SMOKED by USC) against a CFP team. The Rose Bowl is supposed to be the Pac 12 champion vs. the Big 12 champion....no way in hell they are going to water down the game by letting a third place team sneak in. They are already going to be pissed off enough if OSU and Michigan both go to the playoff (although that would almost guarantee the Pac 12 champion going to the Rose Bowl).

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Dimitri Dorlis's avatar

Washington is technically tied for second place, Utah just gets the placement in the conference championship game due to tiebreaker rules.

And the Rose Bowl would absolutely take Washington for that slot. No repeat from the year prior and Washington is a more traditional power compared to Utah. Them versus Ohio State or Penn State is a big money match for the Rose Bowl and ABC.

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Clio 98's avatar

Not to mention, Washington is currently #9 making it a "Top 10 Matchup" as opposed to Utah who is currently #12 and would likely drop at least a bit lower if they lost to $outhern Cal in that scenario...

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Lisa Horne's avatar

But that's how the RB Committee selects their teams. The highest-ranked team. A bowl committee member told me that. The only time they consider other factors is if there is a cluster of teams together w/ same record etc. Then they would consider who played most recently in their bowl, who already had head-to-head, etc.

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BigB88's avatar

I would agree a 4-loss team would be a hard choice for the Rose Bowl, but just like Ohio St and Michigan, it depends on how Utah does against USC. If they lose a very close game or OT game to SC (which is possible), the Rose Bowl still may select them. If they are blown out, then I'd go with Washington.

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Lisa Horne's avatar

As far as OSU v UCLA in the LV Bowl.... which fan base, based on attendance figures, would executives on a Bowl committee think would bring more fans? Oregon State or UCLA? I don't have TY's attendance figures yet.

LY's attendance was 71% for OSU, 50% for UCLA. This year UCLA's looks worse and OSU's looks better. If you're on a bowl committee, those empty Rose Bowl stadium shots may play a part in the decision.

Also, a committee is not going to base a decision on a player's family/friends being there. This is a financial decision. Not a good-feels decision.

Here's another (Yahoo!) analysis:

OREGON STATE

Oregon State’s nonconference results are better than UCLA’s, but UCLA beat Utah and Washington, and OSU went 0-2 against those teams.

UCLA

UCLA lost to Oregon, which offsets UCLA beating Washington and Oregon losing to the Huskies. Both teams beat Utah.

The ultimate difference: UCLA lost at home to Arizona.

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Evan's avatar

I would think that they would look at how we travel a lot more than our Rose Bowl attendance. I live in LA and frankly I'm a lot more likely to go to an away game than to a game at the Rose Bowl. I agree that the Bowl not basing this on DTR. He's not a Heisman contender. He's just a pretty good QB who might be a late round pick.

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BigB88's avatar

DTR is an average QB and will not be drafted. He is not, nor has he ever been NFL caliber (that's why he's a 5th year senior). If he does get drafted, he will go the way of Josh Rosen. As far as UCLA's "bowl chances", who cares, it's a low-level bowl, which, if matched with anyone decent, they will lose.

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Steve's avatar

I disagree on your assessment of DTR. He’s better than average. I think he’s got a shot at someone taking a flyer in the 6th round or so. But his dreary position does not really matter. Draft or no draft I think he’s in an NFL camp and probably put on a practice squad.

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BigB88's avatar

Not sure how you disagreed and then said he would end up on a practice squad somewhere just like Josh Rosen. So, I guess you disagreed and then agreed?

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gbruin's avatar

I guess, also, UCLA is ranked ahead of Oregon State in the latest CFP rankings, but we are a spot behind them in the AP Poll (nice consistency, guys), so I suppose it'll come down to the whims of the LV Bowl Committee and what they are feeling next weekend.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

Joe, thanks for your analysis and your thorough pregame breakdowns through the season.

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gbruin's avatar

Seconded, and to Dimitri, too. Thanks you guys for all the awesome content for every game this season.

Can either of you recruit and/or coach a defense?

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gbruin's avatar

When all is said and done, the Bruins finished 5th in the conference this season. Fifth. Behind Utah, whom we beat. Behind Washington, whom we beat. After the easiest non conference schedule in probably ever. After getting an absurd 8 home games in a 12 game schedule. With a 5th year playmaking QB and a generational running back. After controlling our own path to the conference championship game and a Rose Bowl berth just over a week ago. Fifth. Essentially, right in the middle of the Pac.

Anyone who thinks this season was a success needs to look beyond the 9 wins, look at the reality of the season and what was there for the taking, and then read Coach's definition of success.

Is that good enough, Bruins?

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fruithi's avatar

Perfect.

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Runfastandwin's avatar

100% awful.

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Bruin4ever's avatar

Doesn't it just seem like mediocrity is simply good enough and OK for this head coach? No fire, no enthusiasm, no drive for greatness--wish the Bruins had a spirited head coach like South Carolina's Shane Beamer. UCLA's players should still be proud of achieving 8 wins last season and 9 wins this season, but it's the current coaching staff that hasn't elevated the program like their crosstown rival. U$C is currently ranked #4 and now in playoff contention (not sure that will hold up, though) in just their first year under Riley. Meanwhile, UCLA is left to wait and wonder where and who they play next. Maybe it will be more appropriate that they end up traveling nowhere to play in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl and settle for SoFi's crappy tailgating. In any case, just play hard and win the game. Go Bruins!

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Runfastandwin's avatar

Wasserman needs to step up with 200M or so and get us Harbaugh.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

I feel your desire to get a top coach for Bruins football, but if you're serious, the likelihood of that target is of Brad Stevens proportions.

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Runfastandwin's avatar

I dunno, 200 million buys a lot...

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Evan's avatar

LMFAO why in the hell would Harbaugh come here for any amount of money. Whatever amount UCLA has to lure a coach, Michigan has just as much or more. If Chip leaves or is fired, we are looking at the likes of Tom Herman or Scott Frost as our best case scenario.

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Steve's avatar

Agreed

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mgibby's avatar

Chip Kelly is a failure since leaving Oregon.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

Gib, I don't mean to speak for you, but I think that you and I were the only people on this site and in all of Bruinland who did not favor Chipster's hire, where success is his riding the coattails of Bellotti and Vick.

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E2148's avatar

Chip is actually a very smart offensive guy. His problem is what Bruin Gold posted below — recruiting.

For the life of me I can’t understand how a guy who prides developing players doesn’t get that recruiting top end talent would make his job infinitely easier.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

His aversion to recruiting was a known commodity from the outset, which should have immediately eliminated him from consideration.

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Evan's avatar

in the transfer portal era, i think we need to stop looking at recruiting rankings. To be sure, Chip's recruiting sucks. But 61 is misleading if he plucks multiple starters out of the transfer portal (Clemson's starting QB is rumored to be considering UCLA).

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Clio 98's avatar

DJU?! I know he was strong at Bosco but his "performance" at Clemson makes DTR look like Drew Brees!

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BigB88's avatar

Seriously. You think someone who is 60th + in recruiting is going to do anything of substance in the portal? You think UCLA will have more NIL money than other competing schools? No, if Kelly can't recruit Freshman who usually don' know what they are getting into, he won't be recruiting sophomores or juniors who know exactly who Kelly is and exactly what they are getting into. It doesn't matter if you are recruiting out of high school or "recruiting" players in the portal, it's still recruiting. In fact, I'd argue that "recruiting" in the portal will be more difficult because the kids have grown in intelligence and can see a losing program much clearer than that out of high school.

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Runfastandwin's avatar

I was hard against it. Retreads never work out.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

I suppose the Powers That Be figured that after retreads Slick Rick and Jimbo, the third time's the charm. (OK, that was mean and uncalled for. I'll probably delete.)

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Evan's avatar

I'm not defending the Chip hire, but in fairness to the administration, what are the choices when hiring a football coach at UCLA? It's either an experienced coach without a job (i.e. retread) or an unproven "up and comer." The unproven up and comers fail just as often as the retreads. We don't have the money or prestige to hire away a great coach from another Power 5. So it's one of those two. We could have gone after guys like Tom Herman and Scott Frost at one point, but they did not exactly pan out at the schools that won those sweepstakes. The bottom line is it is very tough, especially at UCLA, to get it right when hiring a football coach.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

It's a tough, mostly thankless business, alright.

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BigB88's avatar

"I'm not defending the Chip hire" Sure.

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Evan's avatar

some sites, i think ESPN have us listed 6th. I'm pretty sure we have the tie breaker against OSU but i don't care enough to find out. The fact that we went from having an outside shot at the CFP to 5th or 6th place in 2 weeks is sickening.

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BigB88's avatar

In my view it was only 6 wins. I don't count the first three. I can forgive the Oregon and SC losses as those were decent teams, but the Arizona loss was unforgivable. Kelly should have been given his walking papers after that game. Wonder what the tie-break would have been like if UCLA had of beaten Arizona? Interesting, at least they would have been in the mix, but that would have been too much for Kelly. I was actually shocked they beat Cal, but with 27 seniors that was probably the only reason they did beat Cal. It certainly wasn't because of the coaches.

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Evan's avatar

you don't count the first 3 wins? Um, ok. Are we now taking away wins if it is an inferior opponent? How ridiculously unhinged. And it's funny, people like you just look at the name of the school and assume they suck. The facts are as follows: two of our three non conference opponents are going to bowl games. Just like 2 of USC's 3 non conference opponents. If you look at Michigan's schedule, our non conference schedule was significantly less weak.

Fact is we played some good teams during our non conference schedule. Superior to several of the teams in our own conference. Frankly, the South Alabama win was more impressive than the Colorado or Stanford wins. South Alabama was actually 2 plays away from being undefeated and a conference championship game win away from pretending they belonged in the CFP. So i'd just suggest that you do a little research before you make ridiculous comments about our non conference schedule not counting.

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BigB88's avatar

South Alabama in the CFP!! Even "pretending". Talk about "unhinged". You Chipster apologists are getting more desperate by the day.

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Evan's avatar

I don't know if this is directed at me, cause I cannot stand Chip. But yes, if South Alabama were 13-0 you can bet they would be pretending they belong in the CFP, just like UCF in 2013. At least you concede that our non-conference schedule was not as weak as you originally made it out to be.

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Runfastandwin's avatar

I like the Las Vegas Bowl personally.

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gbruin's avatar

I think DTR would play in the LV Bowl, but I'm not sure if he'd play elsewhere, so selfishly I'd hope for that one.

Besides, what happens in Vega$ stays in Vega$, and maybe Chip happens there, so...

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Evan's avatar

exactly. I'm not sure I would even watch the game if Garbers is the QB. It's pretty sad that 9 months or so from kickoff we won't have our starting QB for next year on the roster.

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

I was gonna speak my piece, but will retweet this instead.

Michael Hanna

@MichaelMHanna

Nov 26

Chip's capstone season is going to be a 5th- or 6th-place Pac-12 finish. Please tell me more about what a winner he is and how we've turned some sort of mythical corner on some gold-laden path to glory.

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Runfastandwin's avatar

Sounds about right.

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gbruin's avatar

I went to find that just to retweet it too.

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BigB88's avatar

Well, look at the bright side, next year they are more than likely dropping to 11th or 12th, so be thankful for 5th or 6th.

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Evan's avatar

I almost want us to play in the LA Bowl just so we see what attendance is like and how much tailgating there sucks

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Steve's avatar

Which of our seniors have the option of coming back for a covid year like DTR. Charbs does but he’s obviously gonna get taken around the third round so he gone. Is Kam Brow coming back? Allen? Murphy twins?

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Evan's avatar

Just picked up a nice transfer DL from Penn. Jake Heimlicher. 9 sacks this season. Saw one article say he had "one of the top defensive seasons in the entire FCS." Also seeing A LOT of legit QBs enter the portal. Lots of former 4 stars and guys that have started with success at Power 5 schools. Plenty of dual threats that would fit in Chip's offense. There's so many that it would almost be hard not to swoop up a good one.

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E2148's avatar

Awesome. Was excited to see that Heimlicher commitment come through. Lord knows we could use the help on the line…

I would like to see what our recruits like Martyn are made of though. Bringing in transfers also doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in recruits wanting to commit to us.

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Evan's avatar

i tend to disagree about the impact of transfer recruiting on high school recruiting. The transfer portal is now a part of the game for better or worse. All I'm saying is that it's accurate to focus on our recruiting ranking without factoring in what we do in the transfer portal. It's just not. Many of the best programs excel at and rely upon it. Just look at USC. If you look at the top 10 transfer portal rankings from 2022, it's mostly big time programs....and UCLA. Per 274 sports, in order its USC, Ole Miss, LSU, OU, UT, Bama, Nebraska, UCLA, South Carolina, Arkansas, FSU, Miami, TCU.

I'm not sure why HS recruits would be swayed one way or another by this because the transfer portal exists at every school. If they want to go to a school where there's limited possibility of a transfer showing up and taking their job, they can go to a lower tier school. If anything, they should be comforted by the fact that if they don't win a job or fall down the depth chart they can immediately transfer.

I'm in no way defending chip's recruiting of high school players. I wish he would excel at that too. But way too many people here are discounting what appears to be his strategy of focusing on the portal. There's at least a rational basis for it, even if it is an inferior strategy.

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Clio 98's avatar

For that matter, look at the Trinity League and other high/national-level high school programs - seems like a majority of their QBs and many of the major contributors/5*s are themselves transfers from one HS program to another - Mater Dei and Bosco are built on transfers and it cascades down to the rest of the major publics and privates that tend to qualify for the Open Division here in CA for example - recruits know the score and the portal isn't so different from their HS experience...

I also agree that I'd love to have seen Martyn get some run this season FWIW

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Evan's avatar

They just want to play. I remember when we had Matt Moore and Drew Olsen in the same class. Drew won the job so Moore smartly transferred after year 2. But he had to languish at a JC before moving on to OSU. Both ended up in the NFL.

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Clio 98's avatar

That said, the truly elite programs excel at both HS recruiting and the Portal - these days, its got to be both not either/or...

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SEAUCLAn's avatar

A one year 2* mercenary from the portal is not a sustainable, program building strategy.

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Steve's avatar

Huh

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Evan's avatar

to my knowledge, there are no star rankings for transfers. If you are talking about how many stars the recruiting services assigned him 4 years ago, then it is totally and completely irrelevant to this conversation. Like literally I cannot think of something less relevant to his value to the 2023 UCLA bruins than what rivals.com or 247 sports though of him 4 years and 40 pounds ago.

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BigB88's avatar

"Like literally I cannot think" You can stop there.

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Evan's avatar

no response from you I guess. pw3nd again.

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Steve's avatar

He’s not a 2 star

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Steve's avatar

Looks like Utah in Rose Bowl

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Steve's avatar

Barr Mira transfer portal

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