SMQB: Would a 5-4 Pac-12 Record for UCLA Football Be Considered "Elite"?
Finishing this season with a 5-4 conference record may be the best case scenario for this year's Bruins. But the bigger question might be: Do Bruin fans care?
Let’s start off today with the news which shouldn’t be unexpected.
UCLA has dropped out of both polls following last night’s Disaster in the Desert. The only real saving grace is that, with Southern Cal losing too, both LA teams are now out of the Top 25 polls.
A week ago, UCLA packed more than 70,000 fans into the Rose Bowl for a homecoming game against one of the biggest stories on college football this season. Last night, the team experienced an oh-so-typical letdown on the road against a motivated opponent.
With three games left in the Pac-12 era of UCLA football, how might the Bruins wrap up this season? Well, UCLA still has to play Arizona State and UC Berkeley. These are the two worst teams in the conference. So, they should be able to win those games, especially considering that both of those games are at home. In between, the Bruins visit the Coliseum to face their crosstown rivals whose defense will be under new management, as the Trojans announced earlier today that Alex Grinch is out as the team’s defensive coordinator following yesterday’s loss to Washington. That would seem to improve the likelihood that Southern Cal will win the annual rivalry game, especially considering the dumpster fire Chip Kelly called an offense last night.
So, realistically, a final Pac-12 record of 5-4 is likely for this year’s team. With a little luck, it could become 6-3, but last night’s game doesn’t give me much confidence in that.
Could the Bruins finish losing two of their final three regular season games? All bets are off after last night. And I think there is a better chance that we see the team lose all three remaining games than the chances we see them win all three games, but winning two and losing one seems like the probable result.
If this were still the Karl Dorrell era, the Rick Neuheisel era or even the Jim Mora era, I would be mad as hell after last night’s loss. In fact, I’d probably be calling for Chip Kelly’s job today.
But we’re not in any of those eras any more because each of those coaches was fired for poor performance.
Yet despite last night’s results, I’m sitting here not really caring what happens at the end of this season.
To be sure, after last night, Kelly’s record at UCLA is back to just a game over .500 at 33-32. That’s worse than both Mora and Dorrell but better than Neuheisel.
Realistically, it’s always better to let some time pass before reaching a conclusion as to just how good, or how bad, of a job someone did. Karl Dorrell’s record at UCLA looks a whole lot better than it did at the time, but history will not ever really judge the Dorrell era any better. That’s probably because the problems were bigger than wins and losses.
In fact, Dorrell’s biggest problem was really his lack of recruiting. It was such a big problem, in fact, that Dorrell’s lack of recruiting is probably what, ultimately, cost his successor Rick Neuheisel his job.
Neuheisel went 4-8 in two of his first three seasons at the helm and just as his recruits were on the verge of showing improvement, he was shown the door. A case could be made that Rick might not have lost his job if he had opted to start Brett Hundley as a true freshman instead of redshirting him back in 2011.
In fact, the success Jim Mora experienced during his first three seasons was likely attributable to Neuheisel re-stocking the talent cupboard with much better recruiting than the Bruins had during the Dorrell era.
The Mora era saw good recruiting, but lackluster on-field results.
That brings us to the Chip Kelly era. Both his recruiting and on-field results are mediocre after 5 3/4 seasons.
Realistically, eight wins in the regular season likely buys him at least one more season. In fact, even a six-win season, which he already has probably has gotten him that.
But it seems pretty clear at this point that Kelly is not the correct person to lead the Bruins into the Big Ten as there is no indication of things ever reaching the level of success that Kelly had at Oregon.
That said, it certainly looks like Kelly’s success at Oregon may have been due, in large part, to the team’s successful recruiting under Mike Belotti, much in the same way that Jim Mora’s early success was due to the successful recruiting under Rick Neuheisel. It may also have been that Oregon was recruiting well because they were playing so well that top talent wanted to go to Eugene.
In contrast, Kelly’s results at UCLA have done nothing to increase the quality of high school recruits knocking on the Bruins’ door.
As much as it pains me to say this, Kelly’s future at UCLA will likely come down to a matter of timing. Kelly’s most recent contract extension added a buyout back into it. According to Ben Bolch of the LA Times, the buyout is “$8.5 million if he’s dismissed before December 2023 and $4.27 million if he is terminated before December 2024. That amount drops to zero in December 2025.”
But the devil is in the details, and there is no indication anywhere as to whether that means “before December 1, 2023” or “before December 31, 2023.” If it turns out that the buyout drops on December 1, 2023, then parting ways with Kelly could happen sooner rather than later, even if dismissal before the conclusion of the 2024 season isn’t all that realistic.
Whenever the Kelly era does finally end, it certainly seems like one of the most forgettable coaching tenures of recent UCLA football history.
After all, Kelly is fond of saying, “You are what your record says you are.” And, right now, Kelly’s record at UCLA says he’s a mediocre coach who isn’t getting the job done.
Before anyone goes off and starts calling me a “Chip hater,” remember that the opposite of love isn’t hate. In order to hate, you have to actually care. The opposite of love is apathy and, given the attendance trends under Kelly, it sure seems like a lot of Bruin love has become a lot of Bruin apathy. And, that may be the most depressing thing of all.
Go Bruins.
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I made some comments on this in the game thread. I’m really over Chip. He doesn’t have any passion for winning and I think it drives his behavior in other areas. He doesn’t recruit, and the portal can’t fix gaping holes in personnel. Yes, there are a few quality transfers each year, but I don’t think anyone has brought in the majority of a winning team this way. Colorado tried this year and they still need heaps of players. SUC tried and improved but they’re not a top tier team. I honestly think Chip is just happy drawing up plays, and experimenting with whoever is on the team at the time. He was asked last week about personnel and said he didn’t check or care which specific player was in the game when he calls the plays. It’s something that us fans keep pointing out - that he’s wasting talent and not designing the offence to work with the strengths and weaknesses of the players. I thought UCLA should have fired him after year 2, before the recruiting issue poisons the well for the next coach, but here we are. I don’t wish the Bruins a losing season, but feel like we’ll see the end of him at the end of a bad 2024.
One last point - there was a fan posting that Moore was definitely going to transfer. I don’t really know what will happen with him, but he looked broken mentally (and then physically) in this game. If I were someone in his circle, I’d tell him to look for a team with a good, young, and deep line, and a system designed for a pocket passer. Transfer, take a redshirt year, get your head and body right, and then you’ve set yourself up for success. It’s probably a year or 2 more in school than you planned, but you might still go in the top of the draft. Moore can throw an amazing ball, but Chip is unwilling or unable to provide a scheme that works with his skill set.
One more last point :). We came into this year deep at QB. 5 QBs saw action in 1 game. But we might exit this year with several injured QBs, and no direction at this position for the future.
So, USC just fired their defensive coordinator. But UCLA keeps Chip Kelly, our "offensive genius" LOL. That figures. You find all sorts of examples of teams unloading coaches who do not perform and are held accountable, except for UCLA of course. They hang on to these losers for an elongated period of time in the hope that these failures somehow deliver on what was originally promised and of course to drive more alumni and season ticket holders away. Face it UCLA, you have a losing football program and it's the fault of the current head coach. He needs to go now. Yes, I know all the contract BS and the cost, but it is costing UCLA more by keeping this anchor of a head coach. Unload him now!