The Big 2023-2024 UCLA Men's Basketball Season Preview
It's a rebuilding year, but there's plenty of talent for Coach Cronin to work with.
It feels like just yesterday I was running down all the changes taking place on the UCLA roster, and yet here we are, on the doorstep of another season of UCLA men’s basketball. Time sure flies when you’re pulling your hair out watching the UCLA offense.
We’re going to quickly go through all the new faces, new challenges, and give a general outline of how we think the season will go here, so buckle up, ease in, and let’s get to it.
A Reminder of Who’s Gone
Jaime Jaquez
Amari Bailey
Jaylen Clark
David Singleton
Tyger Campbell
Abramo Canka
Mac Etienne
Who’s Back
There are only a few names back from last year’s squad, and only one of them was a major contributor (apologies to Kenneth Nwuba). Those names are:
Adem Bona
Dylan Andrews
Will McClendon
Kenneth Nwuba
It’s an interesting, young group returning, to be sure. Bona comes back as the team’s clear best player, the reigning Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, and member of the 1st team All-Defense. Bona spent the offseason recovering from shoulder surgery, but he also used this time to improve his offensive game, adding a more consistent midrange jumper (including becoming more consistent at shooting the Thomas Welsh Memorial Baseline 10-foot Jumper) that will make him even more of a threat. Bona was held out of the exhibition against Cal State Dominguez Hills, but he is reportedly good to go for the season opener.
Dylan Andrews is the name from this list that will be asked to step up in a big way. The rising sophomore will be stepping into the point guard spot that has been occupied by Tyger Campbell for the entirety of the Mick Cronin era, which is a tall ask for any player. Andrews does seem capable of handling that job in a different style than Campbell, possessing more athleticism than the departed guard while being a bit more reckless with the ball, but reports have been glowing about his ability to run the offense in practices. He too sat out the exhibition against Cal State Dominguez Hills but it was for precautionary reasons and he should be good to go for the season opener.
Will McClendon is a fascinating case on this team. Thanks to all the departures he’s one of the few veterans on the team, and he plays scrappy defense on the wings which should get him playing time, but his shooting has never translated in a game setting, and he did not get off on the right foot during the exhibition. McClendon may be nearing “prove it” status considering the quality of the players being brought in.
Finally, Kenneth Nwuba is very much here for culture. With Bona and the incoming Aday Mara (more on him in a bit), there probably will not be many minutes left over for Nwuba, but he’s a steady bench presence and will really help drive home the culture that Mick Cronin is trying to instill in his young team.
Incoming Players (Domestic)
Lazar Stefanovic (transfer)
Sebastian Mack
Devin Williams
Brandon Williams
When Lazar Stefanovic first committed, I felt it was an interesting take for Cronin and that Stefanovic would simply play the role of a steady veteran. But the more I’ve seen of him this offseason, the more I’m convinced he’s going to be one of the main offensive forces for this team. Stefanovic was probably underutilized in Utah (surprising, I know) but he has shown an ability to score in a variety of ways this offseason and has the quickest shot release on the team. He’s clearly going to start this season, and will probably have the biggest green light on the team this season.
Sebastian Mack is the other player on this list who will see a lot of playing time and with good reason. The freshman from Las Vegas was a sparkplug scorer in high school, but reports from practice also had Mack working a lot at the 1. That work showed itself during the exhibition, where Mack showed off a fantastic ability to generate shots both for himself and his teammates. At this point, I would slot him into the backup point role, and there’s a good chance he also takes the starting shooting guard spot alongside Andrews.
Devin Williams and Brandon Williams, the two incoming posts, will probably redshirt this season but don’t sleep on Devin Williams possibly finding minutes late in the season if his development is progressing. He has a huge upside and the coaching staff is obviously high on him.
Incoming Players (International)
Ilane Fibleuil
Jan Vide
Aday Mara
Berke Buyuktuncel
Let’s start with Fibleuil and Vide first, since they’ve technically been with the team longer. Regarding Jan Vide, he’s a solid ballhandler and playmaker who isn’t going to turn the ball over, though he lacks some of the top-end athleticism and shooting that you’d like to see. Still, he’s the kind of tough, smart player that Mick Cronin covets, and should see plenty of minutes backing up both guard spots.
Ilane Fibleuil has drawn comparisons to Jaylen Clark, and it’s easy to see why. He’s a rangy, long body that already looks like a plus defender and rebounder, but his offensive game is sorely lacking at the moment, with a shot that really needs some work and a handle that can be a bit sloppy. He’s going to get some playing time this year because his defense is too good to keep on the sidelines for an entire game, but I would not expect him to be a huge offensive contributor outside of putbacks on offensive rebounds.
Finally, let’s talk about the last two names. In the last update that I did, the rumors were finally out in the open and we were able to talk about the possibility of Aday Mara and Berke Buyuktuncel suiting up for the Bruins this year. Since then, both players signed with UCLA, though they were not able to join the team for August scrimmages because they were playing at the FIBA World Cup. The latest bit of news was that both players had not yet been cleared by the NCAA, which makes sense since they’ve both been playing internationally this entire time. Well, on Friday it was announced that Mara was cleared by the NCAA and is officially eligible to play, while Buyuktuncel is likely to be cleared before the season opener as well. Which means we get to talk about them!
The interesting thing about these two is that, unlike everyone else we’ve talked about so far, we haven’t really gotten to see Mara and Buyuktuncel in a college environment yet, so we’re stuck with hypotheticals as to how they would fit in. With Mara, you can see how he’d fit in really easily - he’s 7’3” with excellent vision and passing ability, has a good ability to finish at the rim, and is an underrated defender that can deter drives with his size - but there’s a question of how he would fit next to Bona, who is too talented to play a lesser role. Buyuktuncel is in an even weirder spot, where he is nominally slotted into the starting four spot, but the best way I can describe his game at the moment is a great Jaime Jaquez impression. He’s got solid size, is a willing rebounder, good shooter in the midrange, and is exceptionally crafty with the ball. But there’s a question of how his game would translate at the college level; he had a really good showing at the FIBA World Cup but that’s also under the more open FIBA rules.
Team Preview
This is going to be a wild team to follow, and I’m so excited to be there in person for a bunch of games.
I’d liken this team back to the one from Cronin’s first season. There’s a lot of talent, but a lot of it is new to the college game and each other. There are going to be plenty of lapses on defense, and moments where the offense doesn’t click. There will be more turnovers, there will be more fouls, and there will be more shots of Cronin yelling on the sidelines. The veteran Cronin players on this team are mostly sophomores. UCLA fans who have enjoyed the past few years are going to have to readjust their viewpoint to allow for growing pains.
The big question, from a strategic standpoint, is how Cronin mixes and matches the pieces on this team because different lineups will lead to different strategies. You have to start at center, where Cronin has a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate in Adem Bona and a poor man’s Nicola Jokic in Aday Mara. UCLA has typically run sets with one true post and four wings and guards on the outside. This led to a lot of isolation plays and not much usage of the interior players, but Bona and Mara are too good not to touch the ball, so at the very least, I think we’ll see them get utilized more on offense. I would expect to see Mara get the ball at the top of the key a lot similar to how Denver uses Jokic as sort of an offensive fulcrum, while Bona will likely get the ball more in space where he can threaten his new outside shot.
The more intriguing option, however, is to play both Bona and Mara at the same time. Offensively there would be some issues with spacing but between Mara’s passing capability and Bona’s new ability to stretch the floor, you can see the underpinnings of a tough offense to defend. Defensively it is much easier to see the two playing together, with Bona’s athleticism allowing him to guard up at the four while Mara stays closer to the basket to take advantage of his length, but that would also require some adjustments as this setup would drag Bona, a preternatural shot blocker, away from the rim.
Iso play in particular seems like it will be a thing of the past for this team, as there does not seem to be any exceptional one-on-one players in the mold of Jaime Jaquez, Tyger Campbell, or Johnny Juzang. That’s probably not a bad thing and puts UCLA more in line with other modern offenses, but it will be an adjustment for Cronin to have some better-developed offensive sets. Compounding this problem is the question of shooters: specifically, does UCLA have enough consistent ones? There have been plenty of reports of guys being consistent shooters in practice, but as we’ve seen plenty of in the past, that changes when the whistle blows, and UCLA is going to need a few of these guys to step up and hit some shots within the flow of the offense. UCLA brought in a lot of European players this offseason, but the offense may look a bit more European in flow and style just to adapt to all of its players.
Expectations
People who have read me know that I tend to not make season predictions when it comes to basketball. There are just too many games and too many variables for me to feel comfortable on that front. That said, I do tend to outline some basic expectations for how the team will look and perform this season, along with some best-case expectations.
The problem this year is so much is unknown. We have no idea what this team even looks like on the court since four supposedly major contributors were out for various reasons. And with how new everyone is, it makes putting together expectations difficult. So with that in mind, here are some general expectations for the basketball season:
UCLA should enter the nonconference slate above .500. I think they will lose more than a few games here while they get their legs under them, but by the end of the noncon, I think they can be competitive and take games from future conference-mates Ohio State and Maryland.
UCLA will end up with a top-75 offense and defense per KenPom. This would end up being well below what they’ve put together in previous years, but given how the early season could go, finishing in this range would be a major accomplishment.
Top Four finish in the Pac-12. Even given the massive turnover, there aren’t a lot of teams in the conference that really scare me. Southern Cal has the most talent but tends to find a way to screw that up, Arizona is similar to UCLA in that they’re integrating a lot of new pieces this year, Oregon has been on a downward spiral for a few years now, and Colorado has to prove they can rise up to that top level. The Bruins should have enough pure talent to snag a top-four slot by the end of the year.
Make the Tournament, win a game. Lower baseline expectations, but UCLA should be good enough to grab a higher seed and thus win their first-round game. Past that is a different question.
But those are the easy expectations. Let’s get buck wild with a few crazy ones:
UCLA goes 2-1 in the Maui Invitational. I don’t know if early-season UCLA gets past Marquette, but a loss likely gives them a game against Chaminade, and then they’d likely face either Gonzaga or Syracuse (but probably Gonzaga). Neither of those teams scares me at the moment, so let’s say UCLA takes 5th place in an absolutely loaded Maui Invitational.
UCLA will be top 20 in offense per KenPom. I think the defense will come along a bit slower but will get to a top-50 level, but the offense really has the potential to just run over teams. I’m going to say they get to that elite level.
Top two in the Pac-12. I think the Pac-12 schedule is pretty forgiving, especially missing the Rocky Mountain Road Trip and only having to play a bad Utah team on the road. They have to play Oregon, Arizona, and Southern Cal twice, but I think that gives them a chance to keep pace and ultimately take a top spot in the conference.
Another Sweet 16 berth. As I’ve said many times, the NCAA Tournament is a crap shoot, so if you get to the Sweet 16, you give yourself a chance, and that’s all you can really ask for.
This should be a fascinating year for the Bruins, and I’m excited to go on this ride with everyone else.
Go Bruins!
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Go Bruins! It looks to be an exciting year!
What about #43, Russel Stong???? He's gone but never forgotten! :-)