UCLA Football Preview: Bruins Should Roll Over Weakened Pitt Defense
With five guys opting out or unable to play for Pitt, UCLA's offense should have a big game if the Bruins do have all their guys playing.
So, we know that the offensive personnel of the Pitt Panthers will be significantly different than it was a month ago, due primarily to the departure of Kedon Slovis for BYU and Israel Abanikanda’s opt-out to prepare for the NFL Draft.
While that may be significant, it’s nothing compared to Pitt’s changes on the defensive side of the ball where the Panthers will be missing five guys. That’s because edge rusher Deslin Alexandre, linebacker SirVocea Dennis and safety Brandon Hill have all opted out to focus on the draft. Defensive end John Morgan III has left the program and transferred to Arkansas. Finally, All-American defensive tackle Calijah Kancey will be unable to play due to injury.
The Panthers may also be missing senior defensive end Habakkuk Baldonado who missed Pitt’s game against Miami with an injury, even though he is listed as one of the team’s starting defensive ends on the Panther Sun Bowl depth chart.
Speaking of the depth chart, the Panther base defense looks to be a hybrid 4-3 defense. Look for Pitt to line up four guys on the line with three linebackers, but it’s at linebacker that the scheme gets more complicated. Rather than using a standard Sam (strong), Mike (middle) and Will (weak) assortment, the Panthers call the two outside guys Star and Money. In this scheme, look for the Money linebacker to be the guy who is the nickel back (or the dime, the dollar, etc.). It was Nick Saban who coined the term Money because it’s a hybrid linebacker/DB.
In this scheme, the Star is the Sam linebacker. Note that’s different from the Star linebacker we saw earlier in the season from South Alabama, which was the hybrid linebacker/DB. Though, this position could also be another hybrid role against a pass attack.
Let’s look at the Panthers’ defensive personnel who will be available for the game.
Defensive Line
The Pitt defensive line will be anchored by seniors David Green and Devin Danielson, who will be the Panthers’ starting defensive tackles. The good news is that these two guys haven’t really done a whole lot all season long. In fact, they had been platooning at one of the tackles, but they will both start due to the injury to Calijah Kancey. Between Green and Danielson, they’ve only combined for 34 tackles along with 5.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. Considering how well the Bruin offensive line has played all season, I expect these two guys to get manhandled for most of the game.
There will be a new starter at one of the defensive ends as well. With Deslin Alexandre opting out and John Morgan transferring to Arkansas, Dayon Hayes will get the start. Hayes only has 14 tackles for the season, but he can put pressure on the quarterback. Hayes has sacked opposing QBs three times, meaning that more than 20% of his tackles were sacks.
While the Panther depth chart does list Habakkuk Baldonado as the other starting defensive end, it seems that he may not be able to play because of an injury. If he cannot play, expect senior Chris Maloney to get the start. Baldonado would be the best tackler on the line for Pitt if he can play, considering that he has 25 tackles this season. Maloney, on the other hand, only has five tackles this season. So, he would represent a huge drop off in defensive production for the Panther defense.
Linebackers
Two of the Pitt linebackers will be playing new positions as well. With SirVocea Dennis opting out of the game, Shayne Simon will shift from the Money linebacker spot to the Mike linebacker position. In turn, that will also result in Tylar Wiltz moving from being the backup Star linebacker over to the starting Money spot.
The loss of Dennis cannot be understated. He was the Panthers’ defensive leader. His 94 tackles were the best on the team. He was also second on the team in sacks with seven.
By comparison, Simon has just 40 tackles and two sacks. To be sure, Wiltz may prove to as good or even slightly better than Simon because he has 45 tackles to go with a sack, but the drop off from Dennis to Simon is significant.
Star linebacker Bangally Kamara will play the same position he’s played all season where his 44 tackles is good for fifth on the team.
Secondary
The strength of the Panther defense tomorrow will likely be the cornerbacks. Marquis Williams is a senior who will start again at one corner while junior M.J. Devonshire will be the starter again at the other corner. The two guys have combined for 55 tackles this season and they are tied with each other for second on the team in interceptions with two each.
Starting free safety Erick Hallett II is third on the team in tackles with 47 and he leads the team in interceptions with three. Freshman Javon McIntyre will replace Brandon Hill, who has opted out of the game. This leaves another big hole that Pitt needs to fill as Hill was second on the team in tackles with 67. McIntyre has only made 10 tackles this season.
Analysis
Chip Kelly has a tendency to keep running plays until the opponent proves they can stop it. What happens if they don’t or can’t? Well, the Bruins score, of course. I don’t know if this Pitt defense will be able to stop one of the most prolific offenses in the country. I think the Panthers have lost too much talent and I fully expect the full-strength Bruins to steamroll the weakened Pitt defense.
The only way the Panthers stand a chance is if DTR and Charbonnet have actually opted out of the game and don’t play. I wouldn’t put it past Chip to have let the media think that UCLA will be at full strength and, then, have certain guys become “unavailable” when it comes time for the postgame press conference.
But if Kelly’s been telling the truth and none of the Bruins have opted out, this is going to be one of UCLA’s biggest wins of the season.
Go Bruins!!!
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