UCLA Football Preview: Stanford Defense Will Be Missing Key Starters Too
The Cardinal come limping into the Rose Bowl tonight after losing key guys on both sides of the ball.
It also looks like opposing offenses have not thrown the ball as much against Stanford. Opposing QBs have made 199 passing attempts against the Cardinal defense and only completed 58.3% of those passes.
It looks like that might be because offenses are running against Stanford 55% of the time which is a little more frequently than UCLA’s 53% run-pass mix.
Ultimately, the difference may be that UCLA will look to play faster than Stanford is used to. Opponents have only scored 23 touchdowns against the Cardinal coming into tonight’s game and Stanford has been stingy inside the red zone. The Cardinal have allowed just 11 touchdowns on 22 trips to the Red Zone. Meanwhile, UCLA’s offense has scored 26 TDs on 40 attempts. So, the Bruins have gotten into the Red Zone almost twice as often as Stanford’s opponents and they’ve been more successful at getting into the end zone too. That may be attributable to the Bruins high tempo offense.
UCLA has run 492 offensive plays while Stanford’s opponents have run just 451. So, the big question coming into tonight’s game is whether the Cardinal will be able to slow down the Bruin offense, and I don’t think they can.
Even in losing to Oregon last week, UCLA still managed to score 30 points. So, I just don’t see the Cardinal being able to stop the Bruin offensive juggernaut.
Schematically, the Cardinal lists 12 starters defensively. Like the offensive depth chart, the defensive depth chart is a little more traditional with four defensive linemen, three linebackers, and four defensive backs. The 12 starter is the team’s nickel back.
Now, they have started all seven games in their nickel defense, playing a 4-2-5 and replacing one of their linebackers with the nickel back.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinal utilize a defensive scheme like they used against Oregon where they pulled a defensive tackle in favor of a third linebacker while also putting the nickel back on the field. Essentially, it made the defense a 3-3-5 in an attempt to better guard against the pass. But, if they do that, I’d expect Chip Kelly counter by running the ball more.
Let’s look at Stanford’s defensive personnel.
Defensive Line
The Cardinal will likely start four guys on the defensive. Expect Stanford to start junior Tobin Phillips and sophomore Anthony Franklin at the tackles. This duo has started every game this season except the Oregon game where David Shaw pulled Franklin in favor of a third linebacker. Phillips has 18 tackles this season including 3.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks while Franklin has 11 tackles and a TFL.
Injuries have taken a toll on the defensive side of the ball for the Cardinal too. Last week, the Cardinal were without Edge starter David Bailey and second teamer Aaron Armitage, but Cardinal247 reports that at least one of them may be back this week.
If Bailey cannot go, expect to see Aeneas DiCosmo get the start. I’ll have my eye on him because I’ve known his family a long time. I first met his dad Anthony back in 1983 when he was a kid. Anthony played receiver at Boston College and also played professionally for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the NY/NJ Hitmen of the original XFL and the New England Sea Wolves and LA Avengers in Arena Football.
Even if he doesn’t get the start, expect to see DiCosmo get quite a bit of playing time. He started as the team’s third linebacker against Oregon. So, he’s a little versatile. He’s got 18 tackles including 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. The worst thing I can say about this kid is that he played high school ball for North Jersey powerhouse Bergen Catholic (and that’s only because that’s my high school’s big rival).
The other edge will be Stephen Herron. Herron leads the team in sacks with 4.5. He also has 21 tackles including 5.5 TFLs.
Linebackers
Look for Levani Damuni and Jacob Mangum-Farrar to start at linebacker. If DiCosmo is playing the Edge, then Ricky Miezen will be the Cardinal’s third linebacker. But, if they start in a 3-3-5, I expect to see DiCosmo start as the third linebacker based on what Stanford did against Oregon.
Damuni’s 46 tackles leads the team, though just one has been a TFL. Mangum-Farrar is third with 37 and half a tackle for loss. Miezen has a tendency to stop opposing offenses for losses. He leads the Cardinal with 6 TFLs, three of which were sacks. Overall, he’s made 31 tackles this year.
Secondary
Safety Kendall Williamson leads the secondary and is second on the team in tackles with 41. Williamson is one of just three Cardinal players with an interception this season. Damuni and backup linebacker Tristan Sinclair are the others. Williamson also has three pass breakups a QB hurry and a forced fumble.
The other starting safety is listed as senior Jonathan McGill. McGill has made 27 tackles including 3.5 TFLs and a sack. But McGill has been the starting nickelback since the Washington game. Regardless, he will be on the field a lot this evening.
If McGill starts at nickel, then look for Patrick Fields to start at the other safety spot and if McGill starts at safety then expect Fields to be the starting nickel as that was his role prior to Washington, even if the depth chart reads differently. Fields is fourth on the team in tackles with 33 including three TFLs and two sacks to go along with a pass breakup.
Starting corner Ethan Bonner is unlikely to play this week. Expect either Nicolas Toomer or Salim Turner-Muhammad to get the start today. Between those two, I would expect to see Turner-Muhammad to be the starter since he started in place of Bonner against Oregon State. Toomer has just three tackles while Turner-Muhammad has only five. So, either way, it’s a big drop-off from Bonner who has 21 tackles.
Finally, the other cornerback is Kyu Blu Kelly, who played with DTR at Bishop Gorman HS in Las Vegas. Kelly may be the best DB on Stanford’s roster. What makes me say that? Well, aside from leading the team in pass breakups with four, he has no backup listed on the Cardinal depth chart. Despite that, I don’t expect David Shaw to play with ten men if Kelly gets hurt. Look for the guy who isn’t starting for Bonner to move to the other side if Kelly needs a breather or
Analysis
Stanford is an injury-plagued team on both sides of the ball. They will likely be missing key starters on defense in addition to the three key guys they are missing offensively.
While the defense still has plenty of playmakers, I don’t expect the Cardinal defense to be up for the task of stopping the Bruin offensive juggernaut. DTR has played with a chip on his shoulder all season and it will be a bigger chip this week as the team looks to get back on track after the loss to Oregon.
I think we will see that Stanford’s success in the red zone has more to do with playing mostly inferior opponents (Oregon not withstanding) and less to do with being a very good defense.
Look for the Bruins to hang at least 40 points on the scoreboard this evening.”
Go Bruins!!!
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Agreed. In years past I would see this as a classic Kelly boof game, but not this year.