UCLA Football Preview: Michigan State's Offensive Line Could Be Spartans' Achilles Heel
The Spartans have been forced to fill spots on the offensive line due to multiple injuries.
In looking at the Michigan State offense that UCLA will face tomorrow, it’s remarkable how similar the Spartans are compared to the Bruins. Michigan State is averaging 347.4 total yards per game while the Bruins are averaging 344. The Spartans average 207.4 passing yards per game while UCLA averages 190.8. At 140 rushing yards per game, Michigan State is a little weaker than the Bruins, who average 153.2 rushing yards per game.
The biggest difference between the two offenses is in Scoring Offense. In this category, the Spartans have the clear edge, with an average of 32.8 points per game to UCLA’s 19.8. Of course, a big reason for that difference can be found looking at each team’s Red Zone Offense. The Bruins are ranked first in the nation in Red Zone Offense while Michigan State is ranked fifth. But those rankings are based on each team’s Red Zone scoring percentages and UCLA is a perfect 14-for-14. The Spartans are 20-for-21. So, Michigan State has scored more often in the Red Zone because they’ve had more Red Zone opportunities.
If we dive a little deeper, we see the Spartans have scored 16 Red Zone touchdowns out of those 21 Red Zone possessions. Meanwhile, the Bruins have scored just eight Red Zone touchdowns out of their 14 Red Zone possessions. In other words, Michigan State has scored more Red Zone touchdowns than the Bruins have had Red Zone possessions and UCLA has scored half the number of Red Zone touchdowns that the Spartans have. Yikes!
Put one more way, this means that Michigan State is scoring touchdowns while the Bruins are scoring field goals. That alone is concerning.
Of course, UCLA playcaller Jerry Neuheisel has been at the helm for just one of the Bruins’ five games. Last week, UCLA was a perfect 6-for-6 on Red Zone chances. Five of those six possessions ended with touchdowns while one ended with a field goal. That’s a huge improvement over the first four games of the season when the only way the Bruins were finding the Red Zone was at home on Sunday when they watched that channel on cable or satellite.
The fact of the matter remains that the Bruin defense will need to find a way to limit Michigan State’s Red Zone opportunities tomorrow and they need to hold them to as many field goals as possible when the Spartans do get into the Red Zone.
Let’s look at the Spartans’ offensive personnel.
Quarterback
Michigan State’s starting quarterback is Aidan Chiles. The junior from Long Beach, who was a rival of Nico Iamaleava in high school, transferred from Oregon State when Jonathan Smith became the Spartans’ head coach.
Overall, Chiles has completed 63.2% of his 125 pass attempts with nine touchdowns and three interceptions.
Additionally, Chiles has carried 52 times for 177 net yards with four touchdowns. That makes him the Spartans’ second-best rusher.
While he’s started all five games for Michigan State, backup quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has played in two games. He saw the most action last weekend when Chiles left the game with an apparent injury in the second quarter and he saw some more action late in the game when the Spartans were down big to Nebraska. Last week, Milivojevic was 6-for-7 with one touchdown. Prior to last week, his only two career pass attempts had been intercepted.
Receiver Omari Kelly has also thrown two passes this season, completing one of them.
Rushing Game
Michigan State’s leading rusher is sophomore Mekhi Frazier. This season, Frazier has carried 75 times for 325 net yards with two touchdowns.
Sophomore Brandon Tullis is the other significant Spartan running back. He’s carried 30 times for 132 net yards with two touchdowns. That’s a slightly higher average per carry than Frazier. Tullis has just gotten a fraction of the carries that Frazier has, but the Spartans gain about the same per run, regardless of which back is carrying the ball.
Passing Game
The leading receiver for Michigan State is Omari Kelly. This year, Kelly has caught 22 receptions for 326 yards with one touchdown. His longest reception went for 75 yards.
While Kelly is certainly the deeper threat, sophomore starter Nick Marsh is the bigger touchdown threat. Like Kelly, Marsh has made 22 receptions, but he’s gained only 263 yards. At the same time, Marsh has three touchdowns, to lead the team in receiving touchdowns.
Redshirt junior Chrishon McCray transferred to Michigan State this year after playing two seasons at Kent State. He’s the team’s third receiver, and he’s made eight catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. His 17.75 yards per reception average leads the Spartans.
The Spartans’ two tight ends have both been very important elements of the offense as well. As I noted in the coaching staff preview earlier this week, offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren has started a double tight end set in three of the team’s five games this season. Each of the team’s top two tight ends have started four games this year.
Senior Jack Velling joined the Spartans from Oregon State when Jonathan Smith became head coach. This year, Velling has made 11 receptions for 111 yards with two touchdowns.
On the other hand, redshirt junior Michael Masunas has only played at Michigan State. Despite making just seven receptions this year, his 94 yards is almost as many yards as Velling, giving him a higher average per catch almost 3.5 yards higher than Velling. Like Velling, Masunas has also scored a pair of touchdowns.
Tullis is the only running back with more than nine receiving yards. He’s totaled 40 yards on four receptions. So, don’t expect the Spartans to throw the ball to their backs all that often.
Offensive Line
The injury bug has bitten the Spartan offensive line. Michigan State will be without guard Luka Vincic for the rest of the season and starting left tackle Stanton Ramil is out for a month.
In place of these two linemen, the Spartans have been using a three-man rotation for the two tackles and another three-man rotation for the two guards. That isn’t saying that the guys who play are bad linemen. It just means it will be tougher to keep them fresh over the course of 60 minutes and that could hurt the Spartans’ ability to either run the ball or to protect Chiles.
The starting tackles will likely be Connor Moore and Ashton Lepo. Moore has started every game this year, but he went from right tackle to left tackle last week. Lepo earned his first start of the season last week after being the starting right tackle last year. Redshirt freshman Rustin Young will also see significant time.
The starting guards will probably be redshirt senior transfer Caleb Carter, who joined Michigan State from Western Carolina this year, and redshirt junior Kristian Phillips. Redshirt junior Gavin Broscious will also see playing time at guard.
Redshirt senior Matt Gulbin will be the team’s starting center. The Wake Forest transfer has started every game this season for Michigan State, making center the only spot on the line where the season opening starter has started every game.
Analysis
The Spartans definitely have issues on the offensive line. That’s the good news. The big question is whether that will translate into run stops or quarterback pressure by the Bruins. If it does, that will go a long way towards UCLA’s second win of the season.
On the other hand, if the Bruin defense cannot contain Frazier and Chiles, UCLA could return to its previous form.
If I have to take a guess, I’m going to say that this could be another close game and which way it will go is likely a toss-up.
Go Bruins!!!
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After last weekend's huge upset, I think the outcome of this matchup is hard to predict because we don't know which team will show up for just the 2nd game under the current, interim coaching staff. The Bruins first 4 games were trash, so I'd expect Sparty will use the PSU game to plan accordingly. Playing on the road is always challenging, so hopefully the Bruins will be competitive and worth the watch at 9am Pacific Time on Saturday.
Go Bruins!
Gotta look out for the big letdown.