Michigan State’s offense leans very heavily on the running. The Spartans have run the ball 56.1% of the time this season and thrown it just 43.9% of the time. That number seems almost bizarre when you consider the scoring margins in MSU’s losses to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Wisconsin.
For instance, against Wisconsin, the Spartans trailed by two touchdowns at halftime, 17-3. In the second half, the Badgers added a touchdown in each of the two final quarters. Despite that, Michigan State’s offense ran the ball 45 times in the game to just 32 pass attempts.
At the very least, the offensive playcalling is suspect. Down 24-3, MSU’s first drive of the fourth quarter began with four straight runs. That drive began on their own 19-yard line, but they didn’t throw consecutive passes until they crossed midfield. You would think that, when your team is down three scores, you might just have a little more urgency to move the ball downfield in the final quarter of the game, but the Spartans didn’t have that urgency to do that.
Their offense strategy did seem to shift a little against Illinois. In that game, they threw the ball 27 times and ran it 27 times. So, they were perfectly balanced in this game. To a degree, the strategy paid off for them. After trailing 20-7 at half, Michigan State outscored the Illini 24-11 in the second half to force overtime. Then, in overtime, Illinois got the ball first, scored and opted to kick the extra point. When the Spartans got the ball, they also scored. Rather than kicking the extra point and sending the game into a second overtime, Fitzgerald went for the win with a two-point conversion which failed and MSU lost the game as a result.
Last week against Northwestern, the Spartans actually threw the ball 30 times while they only ran it 27 times. The weird thing here is that they actually were leading for most of this game. They took a 7-3 lead with about two minutes to go in the first quarter and led 14-10 at the half. With 11:48 to go, MSU was up 21-13. The Wildcats ties the game with just under seven and a half minutes to go, but didn’t take a lead until there were just two seconds left.
But again, the playcalling in the fourth quarter was puzzling. After Northwestern turned the ball over on downs at their own 28 (you’ve got to love Chip!), the Spartans should have scored somewhat easily. On the ensuing drive, they ran the ball five times before attempting a 33-yard field goal which was blocked. They didn’t take a single shot at the end zone. Frankly, it’s inexplicable and should rightfully be driving Spartan fans nuts.
Let’s look at Michigan State’s offensive personnel.
Quarterback
When the Bruins played the Spartans last season, Alessio Milivojevic entered the game when Aidan Chiles got hurt. Milivojevic finished the game going 8-for-18 for 100 yards with a touchdown.
After Chiles entered the portal and transferred to Northwestern, Milivojevic earned the starting job for the Spartans. He has decent stats this season when he does throw the ball. He’s completed 65.41% of his passes, going 121-of-185 with seven touchdowns and three interceptions and he is averaging 180.4 passing yards per game.
Milivojevic isn’t really a runner. While he has gained 107 rushing yards, he has also lost 121, giving him -14 net yards on the ground, though he does have one rushing touchdown.
While we should expect to see Milivojevic start tomorrow, he was listed on yesterday’s Michigan State availability report as questionable. Cam Fancher probably would have been the choice to play, but Fancher is listed as being out for tomorrow’s game. So, that’s highly unlikely at this point.
That would force Fitzgerald to turn to either sixth year QB Carson Gulker or true freshman Kayd Coffman. Gulker has only thrown one pass this season while Coffman hasn’t thrown one. Gulker has run the ball three times for nine yards and Coffman has lost one yard on three carries. Neither one seems like a great option. You could make a case to start either one and not necessarily be wrong.
Running Game
The possibility that the Spartans could be without Milivojevic might force Michigan State to go back to relying more on the run if the coaching staff doesn’t trust Gulker or Coffman to air it out.
The bad news for MSU is that their running game isn’t exactly lighting it up. Part of that is because they lost starting running back Cam Edwards for the remainder of the season to a knee injury in the Nebraska game.
Since then, they have relied on Jaziun Patterson to be their primary running back. Last week against the Wildcats, Patterson carried 15 times for 72 yards. Milivojevic had the second-most rushing yards with 29 on seven carries. No other Spartan gained more than six yards rushing.
And, therein, lies the problem.
Just like Milivojevic, Patterson is listed on the MSU availability report as questionable. Will he be able to play? That’s a question I don’t know the answer to. If he is able to play, he will get the overwhelming numbers of carries. If he can’t, who will be the Spartans’ running back?
The only running backs besides Edwards and Patterson with at least ten carries are sophomore transfer Marvis Parrish and junior Brandon Tullis. Parrish has carried 33 times this season for 96 net yards. That’s an average of just 2.9 yards per carry and it’s why Tullis may be the better option.
Tullis has carried just ten times for 49 yards, which averages 4.9 yards per carry. So, he’s clearly been made the most of the handful of carries he has received.
Passing Game
The good news for Michigan State’s offense, if there is any, is that their starting wide receivers and tight ends are healthy. It just doesn’t present an answer to all the other questions surrounding the Spartan offense.
It also doesn’t say much that the team’s leading receiver is tight end Jayden Savoury. He leads the team with 27 receptions for 261 yards.
That’s not to say that the Spartans’ starting receivers don’t get the ball. All three of the starting receivers each have 19 or more receptions this season. They just haven’t caught as many passes as Savoury.
Among the receivers, Rodney Bullard, Jr. leads in receiving yards with 253. He’s made 21 receptions, averaging 12.0 yards per reception, and he scored on one of those receptions.
Redshirt senior Chrishon McCray is just one reception behind Savoury with 26 catches. He’s averaging 9.5 yards per reception for 247 receiving yards and he has scored one touchdown.
Redshirt junior Frederick Moore is in his first season with the Spartans after transferring from Michigan during the offseason. He leads Spartan receivers in touchdowns with two despite his 19 receptions being the fewest catches among the starting receivers. He’s gained 207 yards and is averaging 10.9 yards per reception.
Offensive Line
It looks like the coaching staff tried to completely rebuild the offensive line. As Bruin fans have seen, a productive offensive line makes the world of difference for a team. Unfortunately, it looks as though the guys the Spartans brought in have not been able to help open up the holes for the Spartan running backs.
Redshirt senior Ben Murawski is the usual starter at left tackle, but he is listed oas questionable for tomorrow. If he cannot play, look for redshirt sophomore Rakeem Johnson to get the start like he did last week against Northwestern. If Murawski can play, then Johnson will start at right tackle. Redshirt junior Conner Moore will be at left guard next to either Murawski or Johnson.
Redshirt senior center Trent Fraley is in his first season with MSU after playing two seasons each at Marshall and North Dakota State.
Sixth year right guard Nick Sharpe played four seasons at Wake Forest before playing at South Carolina last year. If Johnson is needed at left tackle, then look for Robert Wright, Jr. to start on the right side. Wright joined Michigan State after playing at Georgia Southern last season.
Analysis
The only thing that can be assumed is that the Michigan State offense is a hot mess, mostly due to injuries. The team’s starting quarterback may not be available and his backup is out. The starting running back on a run-heavy team is out for the season and his replacement is questionable for tomorrow.
If both Milivojevic and Patterson are unavailable, I just don’t see any way the Spartans are going to be able to produce much offense against UCLA’s tough defense.
Of course, things will be much better for Michigan State if both of them can play, but even then, the team’s playcalling has been kind of suspect because they haven’t thrown the ball when behind like you would suspect. If the Bruins can get an early lead, the Spartans may just roll over and keep running the ball rather than going to the air. If that happens, this game won’t be as close as MSU’s last two games.
Go Bruins!!!
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