Last week, Wisconsin thought they had a plan to stop the Bruin offense. They opted to play a more traditional 3-4 defense most of the game rather than using a nickel lineup. It added a seventh man to their defensive front and helped them limit the effectiveness of UCLA’s rushing attack.
At the same time, Bruin offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy took what the Badger defense was giving him and had Ty Dieffenbach go to the air more than UCLA had in any other game this season.
Tomorrow, the Bruins face a Michigan State defense which has started a nickel defense against every team except for Nebraska. Against the Huskers, they substituted another linebacker for the nickelback. It didn’t really work for them.
Nebraska still ran the ball 41 times for 157 yards against them while they only threw it 27 times for 212 yards.
Realistically, I fully expect the Spartan defense to put a seventh man upfront because if they don’t, the Bruins will just run all over their defense like they have with most of their other opponents.
Let’s look at Michigan State’s defensive personnel.
Defensive Line
Redshirt senior Ben Roberts and redshirt junior Eli Coenen will be Michigan State’s starting defensive tackles. Roberts is fifth on the team in tackles with 26 including five TFLs, which leads the Spartans, and two sacks. He has also hurried opposing quarterbacks twice. Coenen has made 16 tackles including 4.5 TFLs and a team-leading 3.5 sacks. He has hurried opposing quarterback four times, which ties him for the team lead, and he has broken up two passes. Additionally, he has blocked one kick.
At defensive end, two guys have split the starts. Sixth year defender Isaac Smith has started four games this year while redshirt senior Keahnist Thompson has started three, but they have both played in all seven of Michigan State’s games. So, it seems like these guys are a true platoon, rather than someone stepping in due to injury. Thompson has the better stats of the two. He’s made 15 tackles including 2.5 TFLs and a sack. Additionally, he has three quarterback hurries. Smith has made ten tackles including a TFL and a sack. He’s hurried the quarterback twice.
On the other side, Kenny Soares, Jr. will get the start. Soares has made 22 tackles including three TFLs and a sack. He has hurried the QB four times, broken up two passes and intercepted one more.
Linebackers
This is an area where injuries have forced Michigan State to change up the starting lineup. Jordan Hall who has started four games this season is listed as out for tomorrow’s game. The Spartans will likely start Dion Crawford in his place. While Crawford has only played in six games this season, he is still second on the team in tackles with 41 including 1.5 TFLs. He has also broken up two passes and hurried the quarterback once.
Starting linebacker Brady Pretzlaff is listed as questionable for tomorrow. He’s only played in five of the Spartans’ games this year. In those games, he’s made 25 tackles. If he is unable to play, look for Cam Stodghill to start in his place. Stodghill is fourth on the team in tackles with 28 including 1.5 TFLs, and he’s also broken up three passes.
If they opt to start seven up front, I would normally expect to see Caleb Wheatland on the field, but he, too, is listed as questionable. Wheatland has made 19 tackles including half a TFL. He also has one pass breakup and one QB hurry. If he is unable to play, the Spartans may be forced into playing a nickel defense all game, though they could play Dimari Malone, Adam Shaw, or DeJae White with Malone being the most likely option based on the fact that he’s made seven tackles while White and Malone have just one each.
Secondary
The starting safeties will be redshirt junior Devin Vaught and redshirt senior Nikai Martinez. Vaught leads the team in tackles with 46 including a TFL. He is the only Spartan other than Soares to have intercepted a pass this year. Martinez is third on the team with 30 tackles including a TFL. He has broken up two passes, hurried the QB once and forced a fumble.
It will be next man up at the corners since both of Michigan State’s starting corners will be unavailable due to injury. So, instead of seeing Tre Bell and Charles Brantley, expect to see redshirt senior NiJhay Burt and true freshman Jeremiah Favorite as the starters. These corners have only played in three games each. As a result of that limited playing time, Burt has made just nine tackles and Favorite has made seven.
Whenever the Spartans opt for a nickel defense, look for senior Michael Richard to be on the field. Richard has made 18 tackles this season including two TFLs, and he has broken up a pass and hurried the quarterback once.
Analysis
It looks like the injuries have really piled up on both sides of the ball for the Spartans. So much so, that it could, ultimately, force the defensive alignment that they play. They are particularly depleted at linebacker, to the point that Pat Fitzgerald and defensive coordinator Joe Rossi may decide to stay in a nickel defense all game rather than throwing one of their lesser-used linebackers out there. I expect them to play the eleven guys they feel will give them the best chance at winning.
While I was a little concerned that their last two games had been decided by a combined total of four points, after seeing how many key guys will be or could be missing, I’m back to thinking that the Bruins should roll over the Spartans tomorrow. This game may not be quite as ugly as the Maryland game was, but it could be pretty close.
Go Bruins!!!
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No worry, folks. I saw how my Wisconsin badgers handily beat the Spartans in my college reunion week at Madison. We had the game won after the first quarter. UCLA last Saturday handled Wisconsin impressively. The bruins' win streak should continue, in my view.