UCLA Football Preview: Fresno State Matches Up Well With the Bruins On Paper
Both offensively and defensively, these teams seem similar statistically.
Fresno State has a decent passing offense but a terrible running attack. The Bulldogs are ranked 43rd in the nation in passing offense but 122nd in the country in rushing offense. That said, they are slightly better than the Bruins in both. Comparitively, UCLA is ranked 53rd in passing offense and 129th in rushing.
At the same time, Fresno State is ranked 52nd in passing yards allowed and 62nd in rushing defense. UCLA is tied for 7th in rushing defense and ranked 110th in passing defense.
Of course, the difference is that the Bruins have played a much tougher schedule than the Bulldogs. Regardless of that, it should make for an interesting matchup this afternoon that is not a gimme by any stretch of the imagination.
The teams have played just one common opponent, Hawai’i, though Fresno State hosted the Rainbow Warriors while the Bruins traveled to Honolulu. That would be like comparing UCLA’s win on the road against Rutgers to Southern Cal’s win over the Scarlet Knights at home. While the Bruins and the Trojans played the same opponent, UCLA traveled to New Jersey while Rutgers came to LA to play Southern Cal. The travel makes a difference.
The other thing which makes a difference is when they played. UCLA opened the season against the Rainbow Warriors. While the Bruins eked out a win, the Bruins were not the same team they are now. Sure, they’ve lost their last two games to Washington and Southern Cal, but UCLA is definitely a better team than the one which visited Hawai’i at the start of the season aside from bad punting and poor in-game coaching decisions.
Overall, Fresno State tends to throw the ball just a little more than they run, 51% to 49%.
Let’s look at the Bulldogs’ offensive personnel.
Quarterback
Junior Mikey Keene will start at quarterback for Fresno State. While he isn’t one of those unbelievable Power Four quarterbacks who has put together an incredible season leading his team into the Top 25, Keene is a decent QB.
He’s completed 70.6% of his passes this season while throwing 17 touchdown passes to just 11 interceptions. That’s a slightly higher completion rate than Ethan Garbers with two more touchdowns, but, statistically, their numbers are pretty close to each.
Keene is not a particularly mobile quarterback. In fact, he’s lost 186 net yards rushing on 44 carries. But look out for sophomore quarterback Joshua Wood near the goal line. Wood has scored five rushing touchdowns this year on just 26 carries and his longest run was just 12 yards. So, it isn’t like he was sent in often beyond the red zone and broken off a big run.
Rushing Attack
The Bulldogs’ starting running back is senior Elijah Gilliam. While Gilliam accounts for nearly 35% of the Fresno State offense, he doesn’t come across as a particularly effective workhorse back. He averages just 3.9 yards per carry, gaining 465 net yards on 120 carries with eight touchdowns. Interestingly, his numbers are eerily similar to TJ Harden’s except for the fact that Gilliam has scored a lot more touchdowns this year than Harden has.
Bryson Donelson may be the Bulldogs’ more effective back, even though he carries about half as much as Gilliam. Donelson averages 6.1 yards per carry. He’s netted 336 yards on just 56 and scored two touchdowns.
Passing Game
Keene’s favorite target is clearly Mac Dalena. The senior not only has the most receptions, he also has the most receiving yards. He’s made 51 receptions for 900 yards with eight touchdowns. That’s almost twice as many yards as Keene’s next two favorite receivers. Dalena is clearly the guy the Bruins will need to stop this afternoon.
While Jalen Moss and Raylen Sharp have combined for more catches and more yards than Dalena, neither one is averages nearly as many yards per catch as Dalena. Moss has made 44 catches for 549 yards with four touchdowns while Sharp has made 47 catches for 488 yards and two touchdowns. This tandem appear to be Keene’s targets for shorter passes.
Keene will also mix it up with plenty of passes to Gilliam coming out of the backfield. The back has made 27 receptions for 181 yards with 71 of them coming on just one play.
Don’t expect Keene to throw much to his tight ends. His starting tight ends Jake Boust and Kamron Beachem have combined for just 12 catches all season and only one touchdown.
Defense
Turning to the defense, Fresno State will run a 4-2-5 nickel base defense. How important are the nickel backs in the Bulldog defense? They’re important enough that they have their own position coach, separate from the defensive backs coach. That says a lot about the importance of the position to DC Kevin Coyle’s defense.
Defensive Line
Senior Kavika Baumgartner and junior Gavriel Lightfoot will start today at the tackles. Lightfoot has contributed more than Baumgartner, making 33 tackles including 1.5 TFL and a pass breakup to the senior’s 20 tackles including half a TFL and a breakup.
Senior Devo Bridges will start at one of the defensive ends. He’s fourth on the team in tackles with 43 including 5.5 TFLs and a sack. He’s also had six QB hurries.
The other starting defensive end may not be known till game time. While the depth chart lists either Korey Foreman or Jahzon Jacks, Sione Noa got the start last week against Colorado State. Foreman has made just 14 tackles including four TFLs and three sacks along with two breakups, three QB hurries and three forced fumbles. Jacks has 16 tackles including half a TFL to go with a fumble recovery. Noa has made 15 tackles including 1.5 TFLs along with three QB hurries.
Linebackers
The starting linebackers should be seniors Tuasivi Nomura and Malachi Langley, though Langley is listed as an OR along with junior Phoenix Jackson, even though Langley has started every game this season.
Nomura leads the Bulldogs in tackles with 90 including six TFLs. He also has three breakups, two hurries and a fumble recovery. Langley is right behind him wit 71 tackles with four TFLs and three sacks. He also has six QB hurries and two forced fumbles. Jackson is sixth on the team in tackles with 40 including 5.5 TFLs and three sacks. He has also intercepted two passes, broken up two more, had five QB hurries and forced one fumble.
Secondary
Not surprisingly, the Bulldog secondary is filled with playmakers. Seniors Kosi Agina and Dean Clark will be the starting safeties. Clark is third on the team in tackles with 48 including 1.5 TFLs and a sack. He has also intercepted one pass, broken up three more and had two QB hurries. Agina is tied for seventh in tackles with 39 including two TFLs. He’s also broken up two passes and forced a fumble.
While Agina is listed as the starter, sophomore Jayden Davis has started the last four games with three of them in place of Agina and one in place of Clark. Davis is tied for fourth on the team in tackles including one TFL. He also has a fumble recovery.
Senior Cam Lockridge will start at one corner while junior Al’zillion Hamilton will start at the other. Lockridge is tied with Agina in tackles and he has two TFLs. Lockridge is the Bulldogs’ lockdown corner. He leads the team in interceptions with five and he also has seven breakups. So, Ethan Garbers will want to look out for him. Lockridge also has one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
At the same time, Hamilton is no slouch. He’s made 38 tackles including three TFLs and a sack. While he’s made two interceptions, he’s outstanding at breaking up passes. His twelve breakups is the best on the team. Hamilton also has a QB hurry and a forced fumble.
While Hamilton is listed as the starter, Julian Neal has started the last two games. He hasn’t put up the same stats as Hamilton, but he’s done alright, making 30 tackles with four TFLs and a sack, picking off two passes, and breaking up six more.
As far as the nickel back goes, it seems to be a toss up as to whether it will be junior Jakari Embry or redshirt freshman RL Miller. Embry has started three of the last five games while Miller started the other two.
Embry has made 30 tackles this season including 2.5 TFLs. He also has one breakup, one QB hurry and a fumble recovery. Meanwhile, Miller has made just 13 tackles this season with a TFL and a QB hurry.
So, it seems that Embry has contributed more than Miller this year.
Analysis
On paper, Fresno State should be an easy win for the Bruins. They are a 6-5 Mountain West team which struggled at home to beat Hawai’i and lost there to Washington State.
But the Bulldogs have a reason to play well today. They’ve won the last four games against UCLA and their head coach is trying to convince the Fresno State administration that he deserves to stay in charge of the program. A win over the Bruins would go a long way towards doing that.
On paper, these teams seem to be pretty similar statistically, though the Bruins have played a much tougher schedule than the Bulldogs.
UCLA needs a win today to send the team into the offseason feeling better than after last week’s loss to Southern Cal. A win today really won’t change DeShaun Foster’s pitch to recruits. It will still be: “We need you to improve the program.”
But a loss today certainly won’t help Bruin fans feel good about the direction the team is headed under the rookie head coach.
Go Bruins!!!
Thanks again for supporting The Mighty Bruin. Your paid subscriptions make this site possible. Questions, comments, story ideas, angry missives and more can be sent to to @TheMightyBruin on Twitter.
Fresno State travels well. Their stadium was the most attended this season in the non power conferences. Look for more red than blue today.