UCLA Football Preview: Expect Iowa's Offense to Run the Ball All Night

Meanwhile, the Hawkeye defense is one of the best in the country at stopping the run.

The Hawkeye offense revolves around running back Kaleb Johnson. (Photo Credit: hawkeyesports.com)

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Tonight, the UCLA Bruins will host the Iowa Hawkeyes at the Rose Bowl in what will be UCLA’s final football game of the season against one of their new Big Ten opponents. It’s also the annual Homecoming game for the Bruins and the Bruins will be wearing their Beban-era throwback unis for the game.

It feels kind of fitting that they will wear throwbacks against the Hawkeyes because Iowa has become known for playing a style of football which harkens back to a bygone era of college football.

Of course, that may very well be because Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has been with the Hawkeyes so long that you could argue that he was hired in a bygone era of college football, especially if you’re a Bruin fan. Ferentz’s first season in Iowa was 1999. That was Bob Toledo’s fourth season in Westwood and it was the season after UCLA’s last appearance in the Rose Bowl Game. Think about that for a moment.

That’s before three years before Dan Guerrero arrived in Westwood and the Bruin football coaching carousel of Dorrell, Neuheisel, Mora, and Kelly that Dan created.

Honestly, it would be amazing for the Bruins to have that kind of stability. Of course, that would require A LOT of winning, which Ferentz has done with the Hawkeyes. In fact, he’s had just three losing seasons at Iowa and two of them came during his first two seasons. Since his third season, he’s only had a losing season once and that was in 2012. Can you imagine UCLA having only three losing seasons out of 26? It seems impossible to even fathom.

Defensive coordinator Phil Parker has been with Ferentz as long as Kirk has been at Iowa. He was initially hired as the team’s defensive backs coach in 1999 and he was promoted to defensive coordinator in 2012. He came to Iowa after spending 11 seasons as the defensive backs coach at Toledo.

On the flip side, offensive coordinator Tim Lester is in his first season with Iowa. Lester comes to the Hawkeyes after spending last season as an analyst with the Green Bay Packers. Prior to the Packers, Lester spent six seasons as the head coach at Western Michigan where he compiled a 37-32 record.

Special Teams

Junior Drew Stevens will handle all of the kicking duties for the Hawkeyes. This season, Stevens has made 11 of 14 field goal attempts and his long is 51. So, he’s a pretty good field goal kicker. Additionally, he’s been a perfect 32 of 32 on PAT tries.

Stevens will also kick off for Iowa. So far, he’s kicked off 54 times this year and 36 of those kickoffs have gone for touchbacks. He averages 64.1 yards per kickoff.

Australian freshman Rhys Dakin is the punter for the Hawkeyes. Dakin has punted 45 times this season with 21 of them landing inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. That’s 46.7% of his punts are pinning Iowa’s opponents deep.

Senior receiver Kaden Wetjen is the primary return man for the Hawkeyes. Wetjen has returned almost all of Iowa’s punts and kickoffs this season. He’s returned 20 punts this year with his longest going for an 85-yard touchdown and he’s returned 18 kickoffs with a long of 39 yards. He averages 12.9 yards per punt return and 25.3 yards per kickoff return. That kickoff return stat is important because it means that Iowa can typically start with better field position after a kickoff by having him return a kickoff than they would have by taking a touchback. UCLA would be better off kicking off to junior running back Max White who only averages 23 yards per kickoff return. White has also returned just two kickoffs this year. So, he may be inclined to fair catch a kickoff and put the ball at the 25.

Offense

The Iowa depth chart (yes, we have one this week!) lists 12 offensive positions and explains that the starting 11 will depend on “various formations & personnel groups.” Of course, that goes without saying, but it also explains some of what we’ll see tonight from the Hawkeye offense.

The depth lists three receivers, a tight end, one running back (aka tailback), and a fullback. So, depending on the formation and personnel package, I would expect to see the Hawkeyes lining up in a spread most of the time with one of the receivers coming out when they bring in their fullback.

It also supports one of those coaching cliches that coaches roll out when asked what kind of an offense the team runs and they reply “multiple.” So, look for the Hawkeyes to mix it up depending on the situation.

That said, the Hawkeyes like to run the ball — a lot. Nearly two-thirds of the team’s offensive plays this season have been on the ground while they pass just 37% of the time. That’s good news for the Bruins, who are ranked 11th in the country in rushing defense.

Quarterback

The good news is that Iowa will not start grad transfer Cade McNamara. McNamara suffered a concussion two weeks ago in the Hawkeyes’ win over Northwestern. He missed last week’s game over Wisconsin as well as a result of the injury.

The bad news, however, is that backup QB Brendan Sullivan led Iowa to a big 42-10 win over Wisconsin in McNamara’s place. Though last week was his first start for Iowa, the junior transfer from Northwestern played in 13 games over the past two seasons for the Wildcats. He has also seen action at QB in six of Iowa’s other games this season, primarily in a mop-up role.

Last week, even though Iowa put up 40 points against the Badgers, Sullivan still only threw the ball ten times. He was very accurate last week, completing seven of ten passes he did throw including one for 52 yards, but he only threw for 93 yards. That means that Iowa will likely dink and dunk when they do throw as his other six completions gained just 41 yards.

Some additional bad news about Sullivan is that he is more mobile than McNamara. Sullivan has run the ball 26 times this season for 134 net yards and a touchdown while McNamara has actually lost 31 net yards on the ground.

Running Game

While Sullivan brings a bit of an added dimension to the Hawkeye running attack, junior tailback Kaleb Johnson is Iowa’s workhorse back. Johnson has run the ball 170 times for 1279 net yards. That’s almost half of Iowa’s rushes as a team. He’s averaging 7.5 yards per rush and he’s scored 19 touchdowns. Clearly, the Bruins will need to contain Johnson in order to be able to keep their winning streak alive tonight.

When Johnson doesn’t carry the ball, there is a significant falloff in the average gain the Hawkeyes make on the ground. Backup tailbacks Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson have carried just 52 and 48 times, respectively. Moulton has gained just 260 net yards while Patterson has gained 227 net yards. That means Moulton averages 5.0 yards per carry while Patterson is averaging 4.7 ypc. Moulton has yet to score this year while Patterson has found the end zone on the ground twice. In fact, Patterson and Sullivan are the only two Hawkeyes besides Johnson to score running the ball.

One thing you should not expect, do not expect to see starting fullback Hayden Lange carry the ball much. He has just two carries this season for two yards. So, when he is in, look for him to be almost exclusively a blocking back.

Passing Game

When you pound the ball as much as Iowa does, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Iowa’s top receiver is tight end Luke Lachey. Lachey has made 24 catches for 209 yards this season but he has yet to find the end zone. Now, he may not be available tonight after suffering a quad injury against Northwestern two weeks ago. He isn’t listed on this week’s depth chart, but HawkCentral.com reports that he “has a chance” to return tonight. If he can’t go, expect to see Zach Ortwerth start in his place. Ortwerth has nine catches for 125 yards this year, which is fourth on the team in receiving yards.

Junior receiver Jacob Gill is another Northwestern transfer. So, Sullivan is familiar with him. He is also second on the Hawkeyes in receptions with 21 catches including two touchdowns. Despite that, he isn’t really a deep threat. He’s averaging just 9.4 yards per catch and his longest was a 34-yarder.

Iowa will be out their third-best receiver freshman Reece Vander Zee. He was hurt against Northwestern and is expected to be unavailable tonight.

Iowa’s other two starting receivers have combined for just seven receptions. They are junior Seth Anderson and redshirt freshman Jarriett Buie. Both Anderson and Buie got their first starts last week against Wisconsin.

It shouldn’t be a surprise to see that Johnson has the third-most reception on the Hawkeyes. Look for him to come out of the backfield on pass plays. He has 19 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown.

Defense

Much like the Iowa offense, the Hawkeye defense lists 12 starters which are contingent on the defensive formation and personnel groups.

But the Iowa defense looks more complicated than simply swapping out one guy for an extra DB when they go to a nickel.

That’s because the Hawkeyes list four defensive linemen, four linebackers, but even that doesn’t explain the roles effectively.

The four linemen are listed as two defensive tackles and two defensive ends, but the linebackers are listed as Leo, Cash, a middle linebacker and a weakside linebacker. The Leo linebacker looks to be a hybrid linebacker/defensive end edge rusher while the Cash linebacker appears to be a hybrid linebacker/defensive back.

This gives the Hawkeyes quite a bit of flexibility on defense. They could very well mix and match these quite a bit in order to keep offenses off balance. We could see the Leo replace a defensive end with the Cash linebacker in the game to supplement the secondary on pass coverage, or we could see the Cash linebacker replace a defensive end as well. It really results in a lot of flexibility for the Iowa defense.

The result has been that Iowa has a defense ranked 18th in the nation in rushing defense and 43rd in passing yards. The Hawkeyes are also 18th in total defense.

Let’s check out the defensive personnel for Iowa.

Defensive Line

The Iowa defensive line is full of upperclassmen. Seniors Deontae Craig and Ethan Hurkett will be the starting defensive ends. Hurkett is fifth on the team in tackles with 33 including five TFLs and 2.5 sacks. He also has two quarterback hurries and a pair of forced fumbles. Craig has made 27 tackles including a TFL and a sack. He leads the team in QB hurries with four and a pass breadkup.

Senior Yahya Black and junior Aaron Graves will start at the defensive tackles. Black has made 24 tackles including 4.5 TFLs and a sack while Graves has 23 tackles with six TFLs and a team-leading five sacks. Graves is also tied for the team lead in tackles for loss with reserve defensive end Max Llewellyn.

Linebackers

Middle linebacker Jay Higgins is the leader of the Iowa defense. He leads the Hawkeyes in tackles with 94 including a TFL and a sack. He also is tied for the team lead in both interceptions with three, and he’s tied for second pass breakups with four and in QB hurries with three. Higgins also has two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.

The Will, or weakside, linebacker is grad transfer Nick Jackson. He’s second behind Higgins in tackles with 64 including 3.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. He’s tied with Higgins for second in pass breakups and QB hurries. He’s also intercepted a pass this year.

The starting Leo linebacker will be Kyler Fisher. Despite being a specialized hybrid defensive end/linebacker/edge rusher, Fisher hasn’t sacked a QB yet this season. In fact, he doesn’t even have a QB hurry. So, I’m not sure how effective the Leo position is for Iowa, though he has made 22 tackles inclding 1.5 TFLs.

Over at the Cash linebacker, the starter will be Sebastian Castro. Castro has made 35 tackles including a TFL. He also has an interception, a pass breakup and a forced fumble.

Secondary

In the secondary, Iowa will start a right corner, a left corner, a free safety and a strong safety. The free safety will be grad student Quinn Schulte. He’s third on the team in tackles with 40. Schulte is third on the team in interceptions with two and he has three pass breakups.

The starting strong safety will be Xavier Nwankpa. The junior is sixth on the team in tackles with 30.

Grad student Jermari Harris will start at the left corner while sophomore Deshaun Lee will start on the right side. Lee has made 26 tackles and he has two breakups and an interception. Harris has made 20 tackles including one TFL. He is tied with Higgins for the team lead in interceptions with three and he leads the team in breakups with seven.

Analysis

Offensively, the Hawkeyes will run the ball two-thirds of the time with most of the carries going to Johnson. UCLA will need to find a way to stop him in order to contain the Iowa offense. If the Bruins are able to do that, expect a win tonight.

Defensively, Iowa is very strong on the run, which may not matter since we know the Bruins struggle to run the ball. The key offensively for UCLA will be the Bruins’ ability to continue using the short passing game as a substitute for an effective running attack. If Ethan Garbers can play the way he has the past two games, UCLA will be in a position to win their third straight.

Another key to a Bruin win tonight is getting the lead early. UCLA has jumped out to an early lead three games in a row and that’s helped them to win their last two games. If they can do that again tonight, they will be in a better position than if they are playing from behind.


Go Bruins!!!

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