On the surface, the Illinois offense looks very well balanced. After all, the Illini have thrown the ball once more than they run the ball. However, a deeper analysis reveals a big difference in Illinois’ play selection between the games they have won and the games they have lost.
In the games the Fighting Illini have won, Illinois has run the ball 52.51% of the time, and they have passed it just 47.49%. On the other hand, they run the ball just 45.32% of the time and they pass it 54.68% of the time in games they have lost.
In fact, the only win where Illinois has thrown the ball much more than they ran it was last week’s game against Nebraska. That game was tied 7-7 at the half and the Illini threw the ball more in the second half and were never really able to turn to the run to drain the clock.
Let’s look at the offensive personnel for the Illini.
Quarterback
The starting quarterback for Illinois will be fifth-year Katin Houser. Tonight’s game will be a homecoming for Houser who grew up in Anaheim and graduated from St. John Bosco, where he was a four-star recruit. Houser began his collegiate career at Michigan State. After two seasons, he transferred to East Carolina where he played two more before joining the Illini this year.
This season, he is 162-of-252 for 1955 yards. That’s a 64.29% completion percentage. He has thrown for 16 touchdowns and been intercepted five times. He is averaging 244.40 yards per game and his longest pass of the season gained 58 yards.
Houser suffered a broken hand against Michigan State and was originally projected to miss four to six weeks, but he underwent surgery with Cedars-Sinai hand specialist Dr. Steven Shin and was able to return against Maryland just three weeks later.
Houser adds another dimension to the game by being able to run the ball. He has run the ball 37 times for 128 net yards and two touchdowns. That’s an average of 3.5 yards per carry. So, while he isn’t the Illini’s top rusher, he will give the Bruin defense something else to be concerned about.
Running Game
In addition to Houser, Illinois has a stable of four running backs who have run for more than 100 yards this season. Fifth-year running back Aidan Laughery will be the Illini’s starting back. Laughery has carried 100 times this year for 615 net yards and two touchdowns. His longest run this year went for 77 yards. He has carried twice as much as Ca’lil Valentine, the Illini’s second-best running back.
While Valentine has gained more yards than anyone but Laughery, he’s only played in five games this season because he suffered a season-ending injury against Purdue and will not play tonight.
Valentine’s injury, along with an injury to Javari Barnett, means that fifth-year back Jordan Anderson will be Illinois’ RB2 for tonight’s game. Anderson has 45 carries for 199 net yards and two touchdowns this season. His longest run of the season was a 33-yarder.
With those two injuries, Illinois may have to rely on Houser or tonight’s backup quarterback Carson Boyd, due to an injury to QB2 Michael Clayton II, to run the ball more. Alternatively, they may try to incorporate former quarterback-turned-receiver Jershaun Newton into the running game despite the fact that Newton has just one carry for one yard this season.
It might also force the Illini to plan on throwing the ball more tonight.
Passing Game
For all but two games this year, Illinois has started a lineup featuring three receivers and a tight end. Those three receivers have been Hudson Clement, Colin Dixon, and Brayden Trimble. The Illini opted to insert tight end Kaden Feagin in place of Trimble.
By far, Dixon has been Houser’s favorite target, catching 68 passes for 910 yards and 12 touchdowns. No other Illinois receiver has caught more than three touchdowns and Dixon’s 68 receptions is more than Clement and Trimble combined.
Clement has 37 receptions for 540 yards and a touchdown while Trimble has 22 receptions for 198 yards and a touchdown.
While Christian Abney has started every game at tight end and Feagin has only started two, Abney is more of a blocker while Feagin is the more proficient receiver of the two. Feagin has made ten receptions for 83 yards while Abney has six receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown.
The Illini’s fourth receiver is Ty Robinson, and based on his stats, it’s a bit of a surprise that he hasn’t started a game yet. Robinson has 13 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns. That’s an average of 13.3 yards per catch which is just behind Dixon and is the third-best average on the team. If that’s not enough, he is second on the team behind Dixon with three touchdown receptions.
The Illini don’t throw to their backs much. Laughery has 12 receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown, which is just 1.33 receptions per game.
Offensive Line
While it seems to have taken a while to find the right balance on the offensive line, it looks like they may have finally found it. Illinois has started the same five guys in each of their last four games, which happens to coincide with their current four-game winning streak.
At the same time, they may not be able to start the same line tonight because starting center Jake Renfro is listed as questionable on the Illinois availability report. It isn’t clear who might play center in his place if he can’t go, but I’d expect to see either Maika Matelau or Brandon Henderson slide over from left or right guard. It’s also possible that freshman Champ Smith could get the start. Smith started at right guard against Southern Illinois and Ohio State earlier this season.
What does seem clear is that Nathan Knapik and Brandon Hansen should start at left and right tackle, respectively. It is possible that Christian Martin could start at either tackle spot since he started Illinois’ first five games at left tackle. If he does, it could free up Hansen to start at center since he played three games as the starting left guard before moving to right tackle. If Martin does start on the left side, Knapik could go back to right tackle where he started the team’s first five games.
Of course, offensive coordinator Barry Lunney, Jr. and offensive line coach Bart Miller could opt to start a guy from the bench who can do a better job at center and not reshuffle any other part of the offensive line.
Analysis
The Illini offense has been depleted by injuries, especially at running back. That, combined with the possible loss of Renfro as the starting center, may make it more difficult for Illinois to run the ball. I fully expect the UCLA defensive front to shut down the run like they have all season.
They would certainly prefer to run the ball first, but they may have to throw the ball more to keep the ball moving.
At the same time, the pass offense seems to be pretty one-dimensional due to the focus on throwing the ball to Dixon so often. So, look for the Bruin defense to focus on him.
While Illinois has played well over the past month, as long as the UCLA defense continues to stay focused and play the way it has all season, the Bruins should win this game.
Go Bruins!!!
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