UCLA Football Preview: Can the Bruin Defense Stop a Good Southern Cal Offense?
Which Bruin defense will show up on Saturday? The one that surprised everyone against Washington or the one which looked terrible against Arizona?
After finding a few spots where there may be reason for optimism regarding this week’s game, I’m concerned about how the Southern Cal offense will match up against a Bruin defense which still seems to be missing its defensive coordinator, especially after last weekend’s game against the Arizona Wildcats.
Last week, I expressed concern about the Bruin defense facing what I called a “pass-happy” Arizona offense.
The tiny bit of good news is that Southern Cal doesn’t appear to be quite as pass-happy as the Wildcats, but that may or may not change after Lincoln Riley watched the tape of last week’s game. The Wildcats’ tendency going into the game was to throw the ball about 58% of the time. Interestingly, Arizona only threw the ball on 44% of their plays last week and they ran it 36% of the time.
Southern Cal’s tendency heading into Saturday’s game is to throw the ball about 51.4% of the time. They have thrown the ball just 20 times more than they have run the ball.
Both UCLA and Southern Cal appear to be two of the most productive teams in the Pac-12 with UCLA having gained a total of 5041 yards this season to Southern Cal’s 4994 yards.
There are two stats which do stick out, though, with respect to the Trojan offense. The first one is touchdowns because, after all, the goal of the game is to put the ball into the endzone as often as possible. Southern Cal has scored 56 touchdowns this season while the Bruins have scored 51 times. It’s not a huge difference, but historically, these rivalry games tend to be shootouts.
The other one which should trouble the UCLA Faithful is third down conversion percentage. While UCLA has converted on 64 of 123 (52.03%) third downs, Southern Cal has converted on 66 of 119 (55.46%) third downs.
I almost mentioned a third stat — fourth down conversions — as a concerning stat but Lincoln Riley and the Trojans just don’t go for it as often as UCLA does. That might actually be another cause for concern for another reason.
Southern Cal is 9 for 13 (69.23%) on fourth down conversions and the Bruins are 12 for 21 (57.14%). That indicates a little more of a risk being taken on fourth down by Chip Kelly while Lincoln Riley appears to be a little more confident when he goes for it on fourth down. Of course, this could work against the Trojans as well if Riley is more cautious about going for it and they find themselves in a hole.
Let’s look at Southern Cal’s offensive personnel.
Quarterback
Oklahoma transfer quarterback Caleb Williams leads the Southern Cal offense. While he has completed 218 of 342 pass attempts (63.74%), he has amassed 25% more yardage than UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has. If that’s not enough, he’s thrown for 55% more touchdowns that DTR too. Williams’ receivers have found the end zone 31 times to just 20 for the Bruin receivers.
The bottom line is that Williams may not have to throw as much as Arizona tends to but that doesn’t mean he isn’t potentially deadly. His 31 touchdowns prove that he can pick apart opposing defenses through the air.
Running Game
Southern Cal’s featured running back has been former Oregon Duck Travis Dye. For the most part, Dye is the Trojan running attack similar to the way Charbonnet is the Bruin rushing attack. Dye has more rushing yards than the next three Trojans combined just like Charbonnet has more rushing yards than the next three Bruins combined.
The good news here is that Dye, who is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and who has run for 884 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, is injured and will miss the game.
Enter Austin Jones. Jones will be the running back who is most likely to fill in for Dye. Jones, a transfer from Stanford, has carried just 52 times for 335 yards and three touchdowns.
Williams will run the ball quite a bit as well. He averages about the same number of carries per game as DTR. He just gains fewer yards than him. But both quarterbacks have been effective at punching the ball into the end zone on the ground. DTR has scored seven times while Williams has six. So, look out for Williams running the ball near the goal line.
Passing Game
Southern Cal will look to beat the Bruins with their transfer receivers. They have three receivers who are averaging more than 50 yards per game while UCLA has just Jake Bobo over that mark.
Jordan Addison, a transfer from Pitt, has been Williams’ favorite target. Last year with the Panthers, he won the 2021 Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver. Addison’s best game of the season this year came against Stanford when he had 172 yards and two touchdowns. His longest reception of the year went for 75 yards and also came against the Cardinal.
Tahj Washington, a transfer from Memphis, is the other Trojan with more than 500 receiving yards. His biggest game of the year came against Arizona when he amassed 118 receiving yards and two touchdowns. His longest reception of the season came against Colorado when he pulled in a 61-yard reception.
Mario Williams, a transfer from Oklahoma, is just seven yards short of 500 receiving yards for the season. His biggest game this year came against Utah when he pulled in 145 receiving yards including a 65-yarder, his longest. Against Washington State, he scored two touchdowns, his most in a game as a Trojan.
Analysis
I think all of our readers will agree that the UCLA offense this season has been the best it’s been under Chip Kelly, with the possible exception of last week’s game against the Wildcats.
That said, Southern Cal’s offense, or at least the passing game, has been slightly better overall. The Trojans have scored more often than the Bruins. That should give any Bruin a cause for concern, especially the way the UCLA defense has played over the past several weeks.
The bottom line here is that the defense needs to play as inspired a game as it did against Washington and look nothing like the guys who were wearing the blue and gold on defense last weekend against Arizona. Hopefully, the result looks more like Washington and less like what happened the last time Chip Kelly faced Lincoln Riley.
Go Bruins!!! Beat $c!!!
Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to reflect the fact that Tony Dye was injured and will not play on Saturday.
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Great analysis with only one positive take-away (and I use the word "positive" reluctantly), Travis Dye will be on the sidelines. It will come down to the defenses.
Isn't Dye out for year