Nevada’s offense definitely prefers to run the ball first. Overall, the Wolf Pack have run it 56.8% of the time while they have thrown it just 43.1% of the time. That makes sense to an extent. In each of the three games Nevada has won, they have won all of them by at least 15 points. So, it’s logical that the offense would look to run the ball to eat up as much clock as possible late in those games.
At the same time, the Wolf Pack has tended to throw the ball a lot more in each of their four losses. In fact, they have thrown it 50.79% of the time in their four losses and run it just 49.21% of the time in those games.
Comparatively, Nevada has run it 66.34% of the time in their wins and thrown it just 33.66% of the time in those games.
So, unlike Michigan State which seemed to want to stubbornly continue to run the ball when behind, the Wolf Pack adjusts appropriately once they start to trail.
As a result, if the Bruins can score early and often, it will undoubtedly force Nevada off their preferred game plan by making it necessary to start throwing the ball more in order to try to catch up.
Quarterback
That would make Nevada’s quarterback more important and Nevada’s probable starting quarterback is familiar with playing in the Rose Bowl. That’s because former Bruin Luke Duncan is expected to start for the Wolf Pack.
To be sure, Duncan is normally third on the Nevada depth chart, but injuries to starter Carter Jones and backup AJ Bianco mean that Duncan is the probable starting quarterback.
Duncan got his first start of the season last week against San Jose State and he played a good game. Overall, he went 18 for 29 for 178 yards with two touchdowns. He also had two rush attempts which netted -10 yards. So, he did not run the ball effectively at all, which matches the playing time he got with UCLA last season when he did run the ball once.
So, the Wolf Pack offense loses a degree of flexibility with Duncan that they normally have with Carter or Bianco.
Running Game
In ideal circumstances, the Wolf Pack would prefer to rely on their top two running backs for most of their offense. Without Carter or Bianco, the running game does lose the added dimension those guys bring as mobile quarterbacks.
Sophomore Dominic Kelly has gotten the bulk of the carries this season. Kelly has carried 111 times for 582 net yards and five touchdowns. That’s an average of 5.2 yards per carry, and his longest run of the season was 72 yards.
Nevada’s other running back is junior Herschel Turner, Jr. This season, Turner has carried 71 times for 480 net yards and four touchdowns. He earned the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week three weeks ago for his performance against UTEP. In that game, he carried 19 times for 192 yards including a 72-yard touchdown.
Passing Game
Junior transfer Gary Givens III joined the Wolf Pack this season after playing last season at Northern Illinois last year and at Valparaiso the year before that. His 305 receiving yards leads the team. He has made 19 receptions this season and scored one touchdown.
While Givens leads in receiving yards, redshirt senior Damien Morgan leads in receptions with 31. At the same time, Morgan only has 179 receiving yards. That’s an average of just 5.77 yards per catch. He hasn’t scored yet this year.
While senior Donnie Cheers is Nevada’s third starting receiver, he has only made seven receptions this season for 126 yards and one touchdown. His longest reception was a 50-yarder. Cheers’ backup is senior Marshaun Brown. Brown’s 13 receptions are almost twice as many as Cheers. He has 148 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
While junior tight end Carter Eck is listed as the starter, he hasn’t caught a pass yet this year despite playing in all of Nevada’s games. That makes it looks like he is used as a blocking tight end only. Meanwhile, Trace Estes is listed as the backup tight end. Estes has caught five passes for 90 yards and a touchdown.
Both running backs have played roles in the passing game. Kelley has 14 receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown while Turner has eight receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Offensive Line
LT 55 Jack Foster 6-6 293 5Y
75 Jose Balver-Mendoza 6-5 288 Jr. (3)
LG 76 Zach Cochnauer 6-5 325 5Y
59 Jacob Norcross 6-2 293 Jr. (3)
C 58 Ethan Lowell 6-3 276 Jr. (3) 59 Jacob Norcross 6-2 293 Jr. (3)
RG 72 Ethan Newman 6-3 303 Sr. (4)
73 Tyler Miller 6-2 314 Jr. (3)
RT 66 Henry Sellards 6-4 300 Jr. (3)
76 Zach Cochnauer 6-5 325 5Y
Nevada’s offensive line is full of upperclassmen. On the left side, redshirt senior Jack Foster will start at tackle while redshirt senior Zach Cochnauer will be the starting guard if he is healthy enough to play. Last week, Cochnauer was replaced by junior Jacob Norcross because a foot injury sidelined Cochnauer.
Junior Ethan Lowell will start at center. Lowell got his first start two weeks ago against North Dakota State, when he displaced Norcross as the starting center.
Moving to the right side, junior Henry Sellers will start at right tackle and he will be joined by senior guard Ethan Newman.
Despite the fact that the Wolf Pack offensive line is filled with upperclassmen, they have given up 17 sacks this season. So, that combined with Duncan’s inability to run may help the Bruins find success rushing the passer.
Analysis
The best defense is a good offense. If UCLA can build a multiple touchdown lead early, it should change Nevada’s offensive playcalling. After holding both of their last two opponents under 100 yards passing, the Bruin secondary could have a field day.
Overall, given how UCLA’s defense has been playing, I fully expect them to shut down the Wolf Pack offense, regardless of whether Nevada goes to the ground or to the air.
Go Bruins!!!
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