UCLA Football Preview: Bruins Close Out Regular Season Against UC Berkeley
UC Berkeley features a tough run defense that could force the Bruins to throw more this afternoon.
With this being a short week and a very busy one due to Thanksgiving, I’m going to combine our usual three preview articles all into one.
Let’s get right to it.
Last week’s victory over Stanford will keep UC Berkeley from finishing in last place in the conference standings. At best, the Golden Bears will finish the season with a 5-7 record, but if the Bruins win, Berkeley will finish 4-8 which would be the worst finish of the Justin Wilcox era.
In fact, Wilcox is likely feeling the heat. After beating Arizona in September, the Golden Bears lost six straight games before finally winning last week’s game against Stanford. But before winning that game, Wilcox fired both his offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and offensive line coach Angus McClure. Whether that will save Wilcox’s job remains to be seen.
In the meantime, it looks like Geep Chryst, the team’s tight ends coach and former offensive coordinator for the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers, will be calling the offensive plays.
But changing coordinators mid-season generally doesn’t accomplish as much as an offseason change because the new coordinator isn’t about to overall the offensive system. At best, you may see a team’s play selection change with someone new calling the plays. So, don’t expect the UC Berkeley offense to be a lot better than they’ve been all season.
Look for a relatively balanced run-pass mix from Chryst, who is also the brother of Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst. Last week against Stanford, the Bears ran 22 times and threw 23 times. I expect another balanced attack, at least until the Bears are trailing by enough points that they have to throw more to try to catch up.
Peter Sirmon remains UC Berkeley’s defensive coordinator. This is his third season running the defense for Wilcox. Defensively, the Bears have had played well against the run, averaging just 131.2 yards per game. At the same time, they’ve been easier to attack through the air, giving up an average of 287.73 yards. They’ve also allowed 22 touchdowns through the air compared to just 16 on the ground.
So, their defense seems to match up well against the Bruins offense which is better on the ground and more prone to mistakes in the passing game. Interestingly, the Bears look like they play a more traditional 3-4 base defense, going to the nickel in passing siutations.
Let’s look at UC Berkeley’s personnel.
Offense
Quarterback
The Bears’ starting quarterback is Jack Plummer. While he hails from Arizona, he is no relation to former ASU quarterback Jake Plummer. He transferred to Berkeley this season after spending his first four seasons at Purdue.
Plummer has completed 61.87% of his passes this season for the Bears and he is averaging 254.64 yards per game through the air.
In an era of college football where quarterbacks tend to be more mobile, Plummer is not. To be sure, he has gained 136 yards on the ground, but that is offset by the 264 yards he’s lost on the ground, making him the first quarterback UCLA has faced this season who has a net loss of yards on the ground. In fact, Plummer has run for a net positive yards only once this season and that was in Week Three against Notre Dame. I expect the Bruins to pin back their ears and go after Plummer today with a strong pass rush.
Running Game
For UC Berkeley, the running game pretty much begins and ends with Jaydn Ott. Ott has run the ball more than the rest of the guys on the Bears combined. He’s also responsible for 77% of UC Berkeley’s rushing yards for the season.
So, if the Bruin defense can stop Ott, it will go a long way towards winning today’s game.
DeCarlos Brooks is the only UC Berkeley running back to score a touchdown other than Ott. He’s run the ball 100 times less than Ott while still gaining 241 yards. While he will certain be used to give Ott a break, don’t expect him to do much damage today.
Passing Game
The Bears have two guys who have been Plummer’s favorite targets. The first is Jeremiah Hunter and the other is Michael Sturdivant. Hunter leads the team in receiving yards with 812 and his average of 15.62 per catch is the highest on the team among receivers with more than one catch. On the other hand, Sturdivant has found the end zone twice as much any other Berkeley receiver. He has six touchdowns while Hunter, Mavin Anderson and Monroe Young all have three each. Sturdivant also has the most catches on the team with 60.
One of the more interesting matchups in the passing game today may come when backup tight end Kaleki Latu enters the game. He is the younger brother of Bruins linebacker Laiatu Latu. So, it could be brother vs. brother in pass coverage.
Defense
Defensive Line
Junior Ricky Correia will start at the nose and be flanked by junior Ethan Saunders and freshman Nate Burrell. Saunders is fifth on the team in tackles with 33 while Correia is eigth with 30.
Linebackers
The leader of the Golden Bear defense is inside linebacker Jackson Sirmon, who happens to be the son of the team’s defensive coordinator. The younger Sirmon leads the team in tackles with 91 including 5.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. The other starting inside linebacker is Oluwafemi Oladejo. Oladejo is second on the team with 74 tackles including 4 TFLs and a sack.
Myles Jernigan will start at one of the outside linebacker positions. He has started the last six games for the Bears. In those games, he has 27 tackles including three TFLs which were all sacks. Xavier Carlton will get the start on the other side. He is seventh on the team in tackles with 31 including five TFLs. He also leads the team in sacks with four. Carlton took over as a starter when former Bruin Odua Isibor suffered an injury earlier this year. Isibor will still see time but he hasn’t started since returning.
Secondary
Redshirt junior Craig Woodson will be one of the starting safeties. Woodson is fourth on the Bears in tackles with 67 including three TFLs. He also has three pass breakups, two interceptions and a forced fumble.
The other safety will be Daniel Scott. The redshirt senior is third on the team in tackles with 69 including 1.5 TFLs. Scott leads the team with three interceptions and also has three pass breakups, two QB hurries, and a forced fumble.
The starting corners will be Jeremiah Earby and Isaiah Young. Earby has made an impact in his freshman season. He leads the team in breakups with 10 and in fumble recoveries with two. He’s also ninth on the team in tackles with 28. Young has tallied 26 tackles this season along with two interceptions.
Redshirt junior Miles Williams is the team’s starting nickel.
Special Teams
Redshirt senior Dario Longhetto will be the Bears’ kicker this afternoon. Longhetto has made 11 of 17 field goal tries this season. Like most college kickers, Longhetto is most accurate from shorter ranges. He’s made all three of his attempts of less than 30 yards and five of six between 30 and 39 yards. He’s only three for eight from 40 yards or more. He’s made 27 of 28 PAT attempts this season.
Freshman Michael Luckhurst handles most of the kickoffs for the Bears. He’s the son of former Atlanta Falcons kicker Mick Luckhurst and he’s averaging 63 yards per kickoff and half of his 38 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks. Longhetto has kicked off 13 times this season with an average of 63.5 yards per kickoff, but he hasn’t kicked off since the Bears played Notre Dame.
Jeremiah Hunter is the Bears’ primary punt returner. Hunter is averaging 10.35 yards per punt with a long of 22. Kickoff returns have been split between freshman running back Ashton Hayes and receiver Mavin Anderson. Neither has been dangerous to this point. Hayes’ longest return went for 31 yards and Anderson’s was just 23 yards. So, don’t look for big returns from the Berkeley return teams.
Analysis
This game shouldn’t be in doubt, but the same was said for the Arizona game. If the Bruins come out flat after losing a tough game to Southern Cal last week, UCLA could have another let-down.
But I’m expecting the Bruins to have a chip on their collective shoulders coming in to this game. I think the Bruin offense will have one of their best games of the year offensively, even though Berkeley’s defense matches up well against UCLA.
The Bruins are favored by 10 points today and they should easily cover the spread.
Go Bruins!!!
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