UCLA Football Preview: Bruin Offense Should Explode Against Worst Defense in the FBS
Even though Deion Sanders was a defensive player in college and the NFL, that hasn't translated into defensive success for the Buffaloes.
After UCLA’s easy win over Stanford last weekend, the Cardinal are now ranked 126th in the nation in Total Defense. What does that have to do with this week’s game against the Colorado Buffaloes?
Well, the Buffs are in “elite” company when it comes to their defense…for all the wrong reasons. That’s because Colorado is one of just four teams who are ranked worse than Stanford in Total Defense. In fact, the Buffs are the worst defensive team in the nation. They are also ranked dead last when it comes to passing yards allowed. Colorado is the 124th ranked scoring defense. That’s because they are allowing a whopping 35.86 points per game. They’ve allowed 35 touchdowns this season, which is tied with Stanford and Southern Miss for the most in the nation among teams who have played seven games.
It looks like the Buffalo defense has been giving up a lot of big plays for touchdowns because, believe it or not, Colorado is tied for the 24th best red zone defense in the country. They’ve only allowed opponents to score 74.2% of the 31 times their opponents have made it to the red zone. That’s a total of 23 scores, all but two of which were touchdowns. Conversely, that means that, on 14 of the 35 touchdowns they’ve allowed, the play began outside the 20.
As a means of comparison, UCLA has only allowed opponents into the red zone 16 times, half as much as Colorado, and only allowed 6 touchdowns, one of which was a rushing TD and five of the 11 times opponents have scored against the Bruins were times when UCLA held their opponents to field goals.
In fact, UCLA has held opponents to 52 points in the red zone while Colorado has allowed 132 red zone points.
Colorado will play a 3-3-5 base nickel defense tomorrow. Though, the reality is that it looks like the Buffs’ “outside linebacker” is really a defensive end. Why? Because the Colorado depth chart lists guys at defensive end and at outside linebacker, but the game-by-game starters lists the depth chart’s defensive ends as outside linebackers and the depth chart’s outside linebackers are listed as defensive ends. Let’s look at the Buffs’ defensive personnel.
Defensive Line
For the purposes of looking at the defensive personnel, we are going to go off where guys show up on the depth chart. Graduate transfer Taijh Alston will start at defensive end tomorrow. Alston, who transferred from West Virginia, has 17 tackles including 4.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks along with 2 quarterback hurries and a pass breakup. He has started every game except for the season opener against TCU.
Graduate transfer Shane Cokes will start at one defensive tackle while sophomore Amari McNeill will be the other starting defensive tackle. Cokes has made 14 tackles this season while McNeill has made 15 tackles including 3.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. McNeill also has a quarterback hurry, a pass breakup and a forced fumble.
Linebackers
Since it looks like their defensive ends and outside linebackers may be hybrid positions, let’s look at the Buffs’ outside linebackers first. It gets even more interesting. Sophomore Arden Walker is listed as the starter even though Arkansas grad transfer Jordan Domineck has started five games to Walker’s one. Statistically, Domineck seems to be the guy to be more concerned about. He’s made 27 tackles including 7.5 TFLs and three sacks. He also has three QB hurries, a pass breakup, and a fumble recovery. Walker, on the other hand, has just four tackles, a TFL, a sack, two QB hurries and a fumble recovery. So, Walker has not contributed the way Domineck has and I see no reason that will change tomorrow.
I’m not really expecting the guys listed at the top of the inside linebacker depth chart to get to start tomorrow. That’s because, in both cases, they are competing against other guys who have started games. The depth chart says the Buffs will start a pair of grad transfers as the inside linebackers. That would be LaVonta Bentley and Brandon Gant. But Juwan Mitchel has started four games instead of Bentley and Marvin Ham has done the same for Gant. In fact, Gant has only started one game this season and it wasn’t the Buffaloes’ game against Stanford. Safety Trevor Woods started that game and could potentially get the start again tomorrow.
Woods is tied for the team lead in tackles with 36. Bentley and Mitchell are tied for fourth on the team in tackles with 31 while Gant has made just five tackles this season. Bentley has four TFLs including one sack to go along with four QB hurries and a pass breakup while Mitchell has 2.5 TFLs. Meanwhile, Ham has contributed by making 29 tackles including 1.5 TFLs and a sack along with a pass breakup.
If I had to guess, I’d say that Bentley and Mitchell will probably get the start. I don’t think Woods will start there because I expect the Colorado defense to play the run more than the pass tomorrow based on Chip Kelly’s tendencies.
Secondary
Moving to the secondary, the depth chart says sophomore Travis Hunter and freshman Carter Stoutmire will start, but Stoutmire has only started one game this season — against Arizona State. He didn’t even start against Stanford. So, I don’t think he will start tomorrow. Look for Omarion Cooper to start instead.
Hunter has been limited to four games this season, but he’s started each of the games in which he played. Cooper has started six of the Colorado’s seven games, which is why I expect him to start instead of Stoutmire.
Hunter only has 14 tackles this season because he’s only played in four games. He also has two breakups and an interception. Cooper is third on the teama in tackles with 33 including two TFLs and a sack as well as five breakups. Stoutmire has made 11 tackles including a TFL.
At the safeties, I expect to see Deion’s other son Shilo along with Woods. Rodrick Ward should also see significant playing time. Shilo is tied with Woods for the team lead in tackles. Woods’ stats are slightly more significant than Shilo’s. While they both have a pass breakup and a forced fumble, Woods has two QB hurries and two interceptions to Shilo’s one hurry and one pick. Meanwhile, Ward is ranked sixth on the team in tackles with 29 including a TFL. He also has one breakup.
The one spot in this defense which seems least controversial is Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig, who should start at nickel. He’s started the Buffs’ last six games. Silmon-Craig has 24 tackles including two TFLs and a sack. This is the guy who is probably hoping to see Dante Moore most at quarterback for the Bruins because he leads Colorado in interceptions with three to go along with one breakup.
Analysis
When you have the worst defense in the FBS, you have to try to do something to get better. Clearly, the Buffaloes have resorted to playing different players in order to improve their defense.
It hasn’t mattered.
Colorado is the worst defense in college football. Look for Chip Kelly to remind them of that when the Bruins score incessantly against the Buffs tomorrow. I’ll be shocked if UCLA doesn’t get the sellout crowd the maximum 25% discount on BearWear come Monday and they should even exceed 40 points tomorrow.
Go Bruins!!!
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Thank you for the detailed write up. Agreed this Colorado team coach Saunders inherited is really bad (thank you to former Coach Karl Dorrell for Colorado's dumpster fire). One final tidbit: Colorado is averaging 10 penalty infractions per game (I believe they had 16 penalties in their crummy loss to Stanford). This is all you need to know.