UCLA Football Preview: Bowling Green's Offensive Production Looks to Be Lacking
UCLA Football Preview: Bowling Green's Offensive Production Looks to Be Lacking
The Falcons aren't quite "pass happy," but they will probably throw more than they run this week.
On Saturday, UCLA football hosts the Bowling Green Falcons to start the 2022 season. Of course, the Bruins’ biggest question mark all year last season was the play, or lack thereof, by the UCLA defense. But Jerry Azzinaro is gone and he’s been replaced by Bill McGovern. Will it make a difference? Looking at the depth chart, it’s not clear.
The Bruin defense will certainly look different on Saturday as nine of the starters from last season are no longer in the program. In fact, UCLA returns only two starters on defense, linebacker Bo Calvert and defensive back Stephan Blaylock. Can the Bruins lose that much experience and play better? Only time will tell.
Thankfully, UCLA opens the season with three home games against three weak opponents. The Bruins are favored to win this week by 24.5 points. In order to cover that big of a point spread, either the defense will need to step up or UCLA will have to generate an inordinate amount of offense.
Hopefully, the defense steps up and DTR and company generate a heavy scoring attack.
Let’s take a look at the Bowling Green offense that the Bruin defense will need to stop.
Offensively, the Falcons had a propensity to throw about 52% of the time. Now, that doesn’t quite qualify as Bowling Green as a “pass happy” offensive. Given their 4-8 season record, it might not even be indicative of a preference to throw the ball first. Instead, it could be the result of the Falcons playing from behind most of the year. But whether it was the result of a preference to throw first and run second or of playing from behind, it doesn’t change the fact that UCLA fans show be expecting Bowling Green to throw quite a bit on Saturday.
Quarterback
Last season, Matt McDonald started all 12 games for the Falcons. It’s safe to say that McDonald enters this week with a disdain for the Bruins even though he’s never played against them. After all, the Mission Viejo product is the son of a former Trojan quarterback Paul McDonald and the brother of former Trojan QB Michael McDonald.
He threw the ball 35 times or more in seven of the Falcons’ twelve games last year. I expect that he may need to put the ball in the air more than 40 times this weekend.
Despite the fact that McDonald puts the ball in the air so much, the saving grace is that he only threw for 12 touchdowns last season. By comparison, Dorian Thompson-Robinson found the end zone 21 times last season on more than 100 fewer pass attempts and on 60 fewer completions. So, McDonald doesn’t appear to be a very prolific passer.
Running Game
If there is a huge question mark in the Bowling Green offensive backfield, it’s because the team has lost Terion Stewart, the Falcons’ leading rusher from a year ago, who is still with the team but taking a year off to focus on his studies.
It looks like Scot Loeffler is going to start the season with a stable of backs and then he will hope that someone steps up to replace Stewart. As it stands, only Nick Mosley gained more than 300 yards last season.
Fellow sophomores Jamal Johnson, Ta’ron Keith and Jaison Patterson make up the rest of the Falcon running back committee. Personally, I think Loeffler will turn most to Ta’ron Keith, but that’s just a guess at this point.
Passing Game
The good news for the Bowling Green passing game is that everyone who caught a pass for a touchdown is back for another season. The bad news is that, with the exception of Tyrone Broden who had 5 TDs, no other Falcon caught more than two TDs all season last year.
I don’t know why more guys didn’t score on pass plays for Bowling Green last season, but it seems like they should have had more TDs based on the the number of pass attempts and completions McDonald had last year.
Junior receiver Austin Osborne was McDonald’s favorite target last season, catching 64 passes for 546 yards and two touchdowns. With 41 catches, starting tight end Christian Sims was McDonald’s second favorite target. Broden had the third most reception with 36 catches and most touchdowns with five. McDonald’s fourth favorite target was Ta’ron Keith who had 26 catches for 244 yards and one touchdown last season.
Analysis
Despite having an offensive-minded head coach in Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green can hardly be called an offensive juggernaut. Matt McDonald and company will be looking to build on last season and they may be better than expected, especially against a defense that is filled with new Bruins.
The bottom line here, though, is that there is a reason UCLA is nearly a 25-point favorite heading into Saturday. And, the lack of production from the Falcon offense has a lot to do with that.
Go Bruins!!!
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