UCLA Football Preview: Ashton Jeanty Will Be Boise State's Workhorse Tomorrow
Jeanty was the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year and he has been named to five All-America teams.
Tomorrow’s game should be a very good matchup. That’s because there is absolutely no doubt that Boise State offense is definitely a run-heavy offense. In fact, the Broncos have run the ball 59.8% of the time.
In fact, that might make Boise State the most run-heavy offense UCLA has played all season.
Of course, the good news is that the Bruins still have the stingiest run defense in the country. Sure, former defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn won’t be there to call the defense but six of UCLA’s front seven will be the same guys who have made up the top rushing defense in the nation.
In fact, the Broncos are so run-heavy that UCLA should win tomorrow’s game as long as they can hold them to a minimal amount of rushing on the ground.
Boise State has scored 32 rushing touchdowns to just 20 passing touchdowns for the season. The Broncos are also averaging 214.7 rushing yards per game and just 229.31 passing yards per game. So, they are very effective at moving the football on the ground.
I think it’s important to offer a few points of comparison. UCLA’s offense has averaged 191.1 rushing yards per game and 229.08 passing yards per game. The Broncos even run the ball more than the Bruins do. UCLA only runs 56.2% of the time. So, Boise State gains almost as many passing yards as the Bruins and more rushing yards.
With that said, let’s look at the Broncos’ offensive personnel.
Quarterback
Because Boise State is such a run-first offense, I was tempted to look at their stable of runners first, but I opted to discuss their quarterback first to be consistent with every other opposing offense preview I’ve written this season.
Ironically, Boise State’s quarterback situation might actually be worse than UCLA’s.
Taylen Green was the team’s starter for the first eight games of the year, but he was replaced by redshirt freshman Maddux Madsen for the Fresno State game, but Madsen suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the New Mexico game. As a result, Green had his starting job back for the final three games of the regular season.
Then, on December 4, Green entered the Transfer Portal and decided to head to Arkansas. As a result, the Broncos will be without their top two quarterbacks tomorrow.
Instead, Boise State will start either redshirt sophomore Colt Fulton or true freshman CJ Tiller. Neither quarterback has thrown the ball all season. So, look for UCLA to put a lot of pressure on whomever ends up playing quarterback for the Broncos tomorrow.
Now, one thing to watch out for is Boise State’s tendency to have their quarterback take off with the ball. Between Green and Madsen, Bronco quarterbacks have run the ball 110 times this season. If you combine them, that’s good for third on the team and just seven fewer rushes than second-string running back George Holani had.
So, the Bruins will need to contain Boise State’s quarterback which is something they have been very effective at doing all season long.
Rushing Game
Having established the importance of the rushing attack to Boise State’s offense, let’s take a look at the Bronco running backs.
The awards have been pouring in for Broncos’ starting running back Ashton Jeanty. Not only was Jeanty named the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year this season, he has earned All-America honors from the Action Network, Associated Press, CBS Sports, CFN and USA Today. He is also one of five finalists for the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award, which is presented to the top offensive player in Division I football who also demonstrate the enduring characteristics that define Earl Campbell: integrity, performance, teamwork, sportsmanship, drive, community, and tenacity; specifically, tenacity to persist and determination to overcome adversity and injury in pursuit of reaching goals.
This season, Jeanty has gained 1262 net rushing yards on 203 carries for an average of 6.2 yards per carry. He’s also averaged 114.73 yards per game and he has scored 14 touchdowns. That’s almost half of the Broncos’ rushing touchdowns.
The Broncos also have two other backs who will carry the ball when Jeanty isn’t in the game. The first one is redshirt senior George Holani. Holani is not as good as Jeanty. This season, he has rushed 117 times for 643 yards and five touchdowns. That gives him an average of 5.2 ypc, which isn’t bad by itself. But, obviously, it’s a big drop-off from Jeanty.
The other back we should see tomorrow is Jambres Dubar. This season, Dubar has carried 62 times for 342 yards. That’s an average of 5.4 ypc. He’s also scored two touchdowns on the ground.
Passing Game
It would be easier to discuss who the favorite receivers are if Boise State’s starting quarterback had thrown a pass during the regular season. The fact that neither potential starter has done so does make it tougher to predict which receivers are likely to see the ball thrown their way, but I’ll try anyway.
It would also be easier if Boise State’s top receiver hadn’t entered the Transfer Portal like Taylen Green. As a result, Eric McAlister won’t be available. He’ll be transferring to TCU. McAlister had 47 receptions this season for 873 yards and five touchdowns, and that was in just nine games. It will certainly be difficult for the Broncos to make up for that loss tomorrow.
Boise State’s next best receiver isn’t a receiver at all. It’s Jeanty, who had 39 receptions for 552 yards and five receiving touchdowns in addition to everything he did on the ground.
Look for receivers Billy Bowens to be the guy most likely to step up and fill the void left by McAlister’s departure. Bowens has caught 25 passes this season for 360 yards and just one touchdown. Stefan Cobbs, who has made 23 catches for 241 yards and a touchdown, is out for the season with an injury.
Two other receivers to look out for are Austin Bolt and Prince Strachan. Strachan has nine receptions for 237 yards and two touchdowns while Bolt has six passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns. That’s an average of 29.17 yards per catch by Bolt which leads the team. That makes him the Broncos biggest deep threat. I’d expect Boise State to use him to test the Bruins’ depleted secondary.
The Broncos’ two tight ends have also figured prominently in their passing game. Redshirt sophomore Matt Lauter has made nine catches for 157 yards and three touchdowns. It’s interesting to note that, since the coaching change, he’s made five catches. All of his touchdowns have also come since the coaching change.
Riley Smith is the Broncos’ other tight end. This year, Smith has ten receptions for 118 yards with one touchdown. So, it looks like Lauter has been the better receiving tight end of the two.
Analysis
Welcome to world of college football in 2023!
The opening of the Transfer Portal has significantly impacted both teams in this game tomorrow.
Ultimately, I expect offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan to stick with what’s worked for the Broncos and that’s by predominantly running the football.
Jeanty is a five-time All-American this season. Boise State will definitely look to get the ball into his hands either on the ground or through the air.
As long as UCLA can shut down Jeanty on the ground, the Bruins should prevail.
Go Bruins!!!
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Just picked up a nice 4 star transfer receiver from ND.
https://www.on3.com/teams/notre-dame-fighting-irish/news/notre-dame-football-wide-receiver-rico-flores-jr-commits-ucla-bruins-fighting-irish/
Never sure who is going to show with Kelly’s Bruins.