Pregame Guesses: #18 UCLA Bruins Face Pittsburgh Panthers in the Sun Bowl

Can UCLA's D slow down a short-handed Pitt offense? Can Pitt's tough rushing defense stop UCLA's potent ground game? Who wins the turnover battle?

Stephen Jacobs

Dec 30, 2022

Senior Zach Charbonnet and the UCLA rushing offense will have its work cut out for them today versus the tough Pitt rushing defense. Photo Credit: Ross Turteltaub/uclabruins.com

Good morning, Bruins! Today is gameday and the UCLA Bruin football team (9-3) will clash with the Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) at the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl in beautiful El Paso, Texas. The game will be nationally televised on CBS and will kick off at 11 a.m. Pacific time. UCLA looks to win its tenth game of the season for the first time since the Bruins won the Alamo Bowl in 2014 (which was also the last time UCLA won a bowl game).

It is time for the final Pregame Guesses of 2022. Let’s get to it.

I have fond memories of the city of Pittsburgh. Despite growing up in SoCal, half of my family was from the Steel City and I had many relatives who were either from there or who still lived there. Some went to Pitt. I especially remember visiting the city in the summer of 1979 when I was nine years old, and watching the Pittsburgh Pirates play a series versus the Atlanta Braves on their way to what would be their last World Series Championship. I even saw Hall of Famer Pitcher Phil Niekro ground into a “natural triple” play, with Bill Madlock stepping on third, throwing over to Phil Garner at second, and then over to Willie Stargell to beat the sloooooowwwwww knuckleballer. That 1979 team had a theme song. It is “We Are Family” by Sister Sledge.

A classic disco tune from a bygone era. On to the guesses.

After to transferring to Pitt for the 2022 season and after starting in the Panthers’ twelve games this season, former Trojan quarterback Kedon Slovis ditched his teammates for bowl season and is already off to BYU, showing that Trojan class…

Without Slovis, and without running back Israel Abanikanda, who is getting ready for the NFL Draft after rushing for over 1,400 yards this season with 20 touchdowns (leading the nation), the Panthers might be toothless. It sounds like “the two Nicks,” freshman Nick Patti and senior Nick Yarnell will split time under center. Both players have completed a total of nine passes this season, each with one passing touchdown. Patti did start for the Panthers in the Peach Bowl last season, but broke his collarbone early in the game, and is expected to get the lion’s . . . er, Panther’s . . . share of the work today

On the other side of the Pitt offense, however, is a UCLA defense that is #88 in the country in total defense on the season, and has shown cracks after UCLA defensive coordinator Bill McGovern was forced to step away from the program for personal reasons. The rushing defense actually isn’t that bad but, true to form in the Chip Kelly era, UCLA’s passing yards allowed is #120 out of 131 teams. Neither Nick under center for Pitt is a Caleb Williams or even a Bo Nix, so even a fading (but well-rested) UCLA defense should be able to slow the Pittsburgh offense enough for the UCLA offense to simply outscore the Panthers, right? RIGHT? This is a two parter. Pregame Guess Number One: How many passing yards will the Pitt offense gain? How many passing touchdowns will Pitt quarterbacks throw?

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh matches up well against UCLA’s potent rushing offense. This is where the game will be decided, IMO. The Panthers are #8 in the nation in rushing yards allowed, permitting a stingy 95.5 yards per game on the ground. Obviously, UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet is one of the top rushers in the country, with 1,359 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. He is perfectly complimented by quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who himself has 631 rushing yards and another 11 touchdowns.

The Panthers have not faced a team with as potent a rushing attack as UCLA all season, as the Bruins are #4 in the country in rushing the football and Pitt’s next best opponent is Tennnessee, at #18 in the country. The Vols won that game, but only rushed for 91 yards. Pitts rushing defense against UCLA’s rushers should be fun to watch and could decide the game. PGG number two is a three parter. Pregame Guess Number Two: How many rushing yards will UCLA account for against Pitt’s tough rushing defense? How many rushing yards will Charbonnet gain? How many yards will Thompson Robinson gain on the ground?

UCLA is favored in this game by eight points, in large part because Pitt’s top players are not available. While the Bruins appear to be the better team on paper, especially after Pitt’s departures, the one factor that can level the playing field is turnovers. Both teams are in the middle of the pack in turnover margin, with UCLA at +1 with 17 takeaways and 16 giveaways. The Panthers are -2, with 17 takeaways (the same as UCLA), but with 19 giveaways. Pregame Guess Number Three: Which team (if any, you can pick a tie) wins the turnover battle today?

Who is going to perform and lead his team to victory on the penultimate day of 2022? Bonus Guess: Which player will be named MVP of the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl?

Make your guesses below.

Here’s to wishing you all a Happy and Safe 2023!

Go Bruins!