SMQB: UCLA's Chip Kelly Is the "Happiest Man in the World"

Bringing some rationality to the Chip Kelly debate.

In his postgame press conference, Chip Kelly proclaimed that he’s “the happiest man in the world.” (Photo Credit: uclabruins.com)

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“So, now what?”

That’s the obvious question UCLA football fans should be asking after yesterday’s dominating win by the Bruins over crosstown rival Southern Cal.

Clearly, a record of 34-33, or even 35-33 if UCLA beats UC Berkeley as expected next weekend, after six years at the helm is still unacceptable, and there is no indication of things getting much better under Chip Kelly.

But there were numerous reports which came out yesterday contradicting the Bruin Report Online story which made it sound like the UCLA Athletic Department was on the verge of cutting ties with the Bruins coach.

Kelly even discussed the rumor in his post-game press conference yesterday. He said:

Not an issue for me. I've never been governed by the fear of what other people say and the lessons that this game has taught me, and I love this game, is that there's going to be highs and there's going to be lows and you got to lean into the lows and you got to embrace them and then you just got to go to work, but the rest of the stuff is just that. That's never bothered me. Josh [Rebholz] came over the other day and said, “Hey, there's a report about this….” and Martin told me, “It was inaccurate and inappropriate.” I said, “All right, let's go back to work.” I don't pay attention to that stuff. I don't read that stuff. I've never seen that stuff. I talk about being the most prepared and the least distracted. Then, why would I let something distract me? And, then, if that's the case then, I'm a fool because I'm not doing what I tell our players to do. So, it didn't bother this team one day and you could see by the performance today, it didn't bother the team. It didn't bother them. I never talked to the team about it. I never talked to our coaches about it. We're just fortunate. We're all blessed that we get to play this sport, and every day that we get to coach it, I'm the happiest man in the world.

The video from Chip’s postgame press conference is courtesy of UCLA Athletics on YouTube.

So, what exactly does yesterday’s dominating win mean for the future of Chip Kelly at UCLA?

Well, for starters, it looks like Tracy Pierson’s sources for his report on Bruin Report Online were wrong. Again. It’s not the first time. It won’t be the last time.

Martin Jarmond would not have made such an unequivocal statement to the respected Fox reporter Bruce Feldman if he were planning on firing Kelly. He wouldn’t have made such an unequivocal statement if he hadn’t made up his mind yet either.

If either of those were true, he would have resorted to Dan Guerrero’s old standby statement about evaluating the direction of the program when the season had concluded.

Is it possible that Jarmond could change his mind in the near future? Certainly. Could “inaccurate and inappropriate” be the new “vote of confidence” where some executive gives his coach public support only to come back with another decision soon thereafter? Absolutely.

But, as of this morning, it certainly seems likely that Chip Kelly will be UCLA’s head coach when the team opens its 2024 season against Hawai’i next year.

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That brings me back to my previous thoughts about Kelly’s contract, making firing him this year prohibitively expensive.

Because no one had previously published Kelly’s most recent contract extension, a few weeks ago, I submitted a public records request to UCLA requesting a copy of Kelly’s contract extension.

I received a copy of Kelly’s 2022 and 2023 contract extensions and there were a few interesting things I learned once I read it.

The first thing is that stood out is that Kelly has a new agent. When Kelly was hired, his agent was David Dunn. Dunn is the agent behind Athletes First. But Kelly is now represented by Ed Marynowitz of CAA Sports.

The other big difference has to do with Paragraph 12. Paragraph 12 is titled “Termination by the University Without Cause.” Kelly’s original contract contained a $9M buyout in the event that UCLA fired him “without cause.” The buyout requirement in the original contract stood at that $9M level until it went away on January 15, 2022. That made it difficult for cash-strapped UCLA to fire Kelly before that date.

Now, Kelly’s 2022 and 2023 contract extensions changed the way the buyout was dealt with. The 2022 extension kept the buyout at $9M up until that original January 15, 2022 date. But, after that date, the buyout was:

70% of each of the following amounts (if not previously paid): (a) the total remaining base salary described in the attached Contract Addendum in Section 2(A) titled “Compensation – Base Salary” (through December 15, 2023 only), plus (b) the total remaining talent fee described in the attached Contract Addendum, in Section 2(B) titled “Compensation – Talent Fee” (through December 15, 2023 only), plus (c) theretention bonuses described in the attached Contract Addendum, in Section 2(E) titled “Compensation – Retention Bonus” (through December 15, 2023 only)….

Kelly’s base salary in the 2022 extension remained $300,000. His talent fee was $4.3M through December 15, 2022, after which it increased to $4.5M per year through December 15, 2025. His retention bonus were set at $1M each year. So, under the 2022 extension the buyout would have disappeared entirely on December 15th.

The 2023 extension changes the key date from December 15, 2023 to December 15, 2025 and it removed the inclusion of Kelly’s retention bonus from the buyout.

That means that, today, Kelly would be owed 70% of $600,000 in base salary (for 2024 and 2025), 70% of his $5.8M talent fee for 2024 and 70% of his $5.9M talent fee for 2025. That totals out to 70% of $12.3M which is $8.6M.

“But, when does the buyout decrease?” you ask.

The buyout decreases slightly each and every payday because Kelly would be owed 70% of what remains unpaid at the time he is fired. So, totally hypothetically, if Kelly were to be fired without cause on June 15, 2024, he would have been paid half of his 2024 base salary and talent fee, meaning he’d be owed 70% of the following:

• $150,000 remaining base salary for 2024.

• $300,000 base salary for 2025

• $2.9M remaining talent fee for 2024.

• $5.9M talent fee for 2025.

So, in this hypothetical, his buyout would be down to $6.475M total because he would have been paid half of his base salary and half of his talent fee for the contract year which begins on December 16, 2023.

As a result, his buyout this time next year would be $4.34M (plus 70% of what he hadn’t been paid yet for 2024).

There is one final item worth noting from his contract extensions. They both require Kelly to pay a buyout if he leaves prior to a certain date in the contract.

Since the most recent extension is really the only one which matters, let’s focus on that. It requires Kelly to pay $3M “[i]f Coach terminates the Contract at any time on or before the final game of the 2023 season (including, if applicable the conference championship game).”

Since it doesn’t include an applicable bowl game, after this Saturday’s game against UC Berkely, Kelly is required to pay $1.5M “[i]f Coach terminates the Contract at any time after the final game of the 2023 season(including, if applicable the conference championship game) but on or before the final game of the 2025 season (including, if applicable the conference championship game).”

So, if Kelly were to quit this week before Saturday’s game against UC Berkeley, he would have to buyout the rest of his contract for $3M, and after Saturday’s game, Kelly can leave at a cost of $1.5M.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is, quite frankly, the bottom line.

I’ve argued, for quite a while that an $8.6M buyout is just more than UCLA can afford.

The UCLA Athletic Department maybe a little better off than it was a few years ago, but too many Bruin fans have this crazy idea that the department is suddenly flush with cash because the school is moving to the Big Ten next year.

Well, for starters, UCLA doesn’t actually join the Big Ten until August 1, 2024. While all the legal paperwork like TV contracts and conference affiliation agreements have been signed, it doesn’t mean the athletic department has received a penny of Big Ten money yet.

That money will not start to flow until the school actually begins play in the Big Ten conference next fall. And, of course, there’s still Dan Guerrero’s $100M low-interest loan, aka financial hole, he left Jarmond to pay off.

So, while sunnier financial days may be ahead, they don’t start for another nine months.

And that’s why Chip Kelly will continue to be the “happiest man in the world,” at least until this time next year when another season of unmet expectations should be met with a pink slip.

We now return you to Facebook to continue roasting all your Trojan friends and family members over yesterday’s big win.


Go Bruins!

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