Certainly "unknown", but certainly better than previous years. We've seen Chip Kelly for several years and have watched the team have better win percentages on the back "half" of the season.
2022 - 5 wins, 0 Losses (100%)
2021 - 3 wins 2 Losses (60%) 5 and 2 for the remainder (71%)
2020 - 3 wins, 2 Losses, but this is a Nonesense year.. Covid. (0-2 for the remainder)
2019 - 1 win, 4 losses (20%), (3-4 for the remainder, 43%))
2018 - 0 wins, 5 losses (0%) (3-4 for the remainder, 43%)
It's very unlikely that UCLA is 100% in the back half of 2022, but if they do what they did last year (71%), 10-2 starts to look really good for a regular season. It was 1998 the last time the Bruins had 10 wins without counting the bowl game. (2013,2014 9-3 during regular season, 2005 9-2, 1998 10-1)
Biggest difference this year's Kelly teams versus the first 4 years is that we do not have an abjectly terrible defense. I'd believe somewhere in the range of 40th in the country. That's a marked improvement from the Azzinaro schemes. I was pleasantly surprised in the UW game that UCLA could at times get pressure with a 3-man rush. I expect the defense to be a bit of a roller coaster again this year, but trending better.
The offense is good (actually really good) and that IS what you expect with a Chip Kelly, run-first offense. I know there were a ton of passes, but a good number were almost laterals and then let the receiver make the defender miss in space. It is tons of fun to watch UCLA carve up a defense.
So, where is the trepidation ? Previous season let down. Yep! The last 18 minutes of Friday's game? Maybe. General distrust in UCLA athletics? Oh, absolutely
UCLA dominated the Huskies, but was the last 18 minutes a factor of UCLA losing focus or was it just "that's the way you win that type of game" (go conservative on offense, hold the ball, and make them take a long time to score)? UW in the last half NEVER POSSESSED the ball being down 1 score. But it felt like we were playing with fire. As fan I would have rather seen us in "eating clock" mode to have started in the 4th quarter, instead of the 3rd.
So, now we get Utah. A significant test for this team. The test is "do you get cocky, pull a Mazzone after getting ranked, and become egg-laying?" or do "you feel like you still have something to prove. " A close fight with Utah, and the Bruins remain ranked (even in a loss). Conjure up a win and the hype train will be in full locomotive mode. In my view, Utah is the better team. Have had consistency over years. But, it won't take a miracle for the Bruins to win. Vegas is at 4.5 in the Ute's favor. Even Vegas is unsure.
For Saturday, I want UCLA to be in the game. The entire game with a chance to win. If the coaches and the team show up, fully engaged, workin' their guts out, there's a good chance we finish Saturday with the win. For me, this game is "let's see what you are really made of"
It’s the best case scenario, having your two best players the qb and the rb. I’m sticking to my guns, with this schedule 10-2 minimum, but should be 11-1 with the lone loss at Autzen.
Never mind the whole Sisyphean task (see DD, I'm reading) of trying to kick the ball with Lucy holding, Charlie Brown's runup is way too long. What a blockhead. Even if his holder didn't pull the ball, there's no way he's getting that kick up and over the line or beating the edge rushers. Come on, Charlie Brown...Align with the center post, two steps back, one over, see the snap, go!
You’re overlooking that this year’s Bruins seem far more poised and experienced. The South Alabama game would have been a loss last year. Their defensive schemes seem far better. My primary concern is the lack of depth and talent on the defensive front. The secondaries suck. We’ve known it for some time and they were still pretty bad against Washington. That will not be addressed overnight. For this team, it will come down to whether the front 7 can get the right kind of pressure to make opposing QBs uncomfortable and force opposing o-lines to make mistakes.
Such an apt comparison Dimitri. I’m not convinced about this team, I think Lucy will pull the ball away. The Washington game was great and the team played well, but I think it’s LSU all over. Beat an over-ranked team, articles saying ‘Kelly has his mojo back’, and then the bottom falls out. We’ll see how they do against Utah, but (as I also thought against Washington) I just hope they don’t get embarrassed. I’m not sold on the Defense, yet. It does seem they benefited from not showing their scheme too much before the last game, but last year it didn’t take long for opponents to work out how to attack it. The Offense looks really good, but will rely on the pass protection holding up like it did on Friday. Everyone thinks we’re a run based offense, but I think it’s actually the passing game that is most important. It’s protect DTR in the pocket, so he makes good decisions in the pass game, which then opens up the run and puts the D on their heels. With a nice passing pocket, DTR is soooo much better than under pressure- even the way the pocket breaks down gives him the chance to feel the pressure and use his legs.
I do have to say, that even with a 10-2 season or better, I still don’t see Kelly as the right coach for the future. The problem is that he’s the best paid Offensive Coordinator in the game, rather than a Head Coach. There’s no accountability with the Defense, and he seems totally uninterested in recruiting. Maybe he’ll pull a rabbit out of the transfer portal, but where will the team be in 12 months time? We’re so thin already on both lines, I don’t really sense there’s a QB or RB to take over, and I can’t think of any big name prospects coming to Westwood. One of the reasons the Rose Bowl is so empty is this problem. With Mora, we always had a Myles Jack or Josh Rosen coming through to generate buzz and put bums on seats in the Rose Bowl. You can certainly argue that DTRs hurdles and Charbonnets yards after contact are worth the price of admission, but some 5* hype would be nice. Maybe I’m suffering from battered Bruin syndrome with my outlook, but then again Lucy can’t be trusted.
Washington played poorly in the first half. They found themselves in the second half. That long drive to run the clock out to end the game is why we won. If we had been stopped I believe Washington would have scored. Thank you DTR!!! The big test for me is Utah. If we beat them, we are for real.
Thanks Dmitri! As always, a fun read. My thoughts:
* Chip definitely played with half a play book in the first 4 games. UDub was surprised on both offense and defense, especially the first half. No doubt Utah will scout us well. And Cam Rising is a more mature QB, so I expect a tight game throughout.
* The first half was amazing. So fun to dominate like that.
* DTR is ridiculously intense. I'm not sure if he has the makings for the NFL -- needs more bulk to play QB, but maybe WR? But if that fails, he'd be an amazing officer in the USMC.
* Going conservative at the end was gut wrenching. If you can execute, it's the smart play, but Lucy's pulled that ball away so often, it's actually risky to play conservative. Glad we were able to pull it out.
*. Saturday's game will be a blast. Will be at First Draft in Denver with the locals.
Certainly "unknown", but certainly better than previous years. We've seen Chip Kelly for several years and have watched the team have better win percentages on the back "half" of the season.
2022 - 5 wins, 0 Losses (100%)
2021 - 3 wins 2 Losses (60%) 5 and 2 for the remainder (71%)
2020 - 3 wins, 2 Losses, but this is a Nonesense year.. Covid. (0-2 for the remainder)
2019 - 1 win, 4 losses (20%), (3-4 for the remainder, 43%))
2018 - 0 wins, 5 losses (0%) (3-4 for the remainder, 43%)
It's very unlikely that UCLA is 100% in the back half of 2022, but if they do what they did last year (71%), 10-2 starts to look really good for a regular season. It was 1998 the last time the Bruins had 10 wins without counting the bowl game. (2013,2014 9-3 during regular season, 2005 9-2, 1998 10-1)
Biggest difference this year's Kelly teams versus the first 4 years is that we do not have an abjectly terrible defense. I'd believe somewhere in the range of 40th in the country. That's a marked improvement from the Azzinaro schemes. I was pleasantly surprised in the UW game that UCLA could at times get pressure with a 3-man rush. I expect the defense to be a bit of a roller coaster again this year, but trending better.
The offense is good (actually really good) and that IS what you expect with a Chip Kelly, run-first offense. I know there were a ton of passes, but a good number were almost laterals and then let the receiver make the defender miss in space. It is tons of fun to watch UCLA carve up a defense.
So, where is the trepidation ? Previous season let down. Yep! The last 18 minutes of Friday's game? Maybe. General distrust in UCLA athletics? Oh, absolutely
UCLA dominated the Huskies, but was the last 18 minutes a factor of UCLA losing focus or was it just "that's the way you win that type of game" (go conservative on offense, hold the ball, and make them take a long time to score)? UW in the last half NEVER POSSESSED the ball being down 1 score. But it felt like we were playing with fire. As fan I would have rather seen us in "eating clock" mode to have started in the 4th quarter, instead of the 3rd.
So, now we get Utah. A significant test for this team. The test is "do you get cocky, pull a Mazzone after getting ranked, and become egg-laying?" or do "you feel like you still have something to prove. " A close fight with Utah, and the Bruins remain ranked (even in a loss). Conjure up a win and the hype train will be in full locomotive mode. In my view, Utah is the better team. Have had consistency over years. But, it won't take a miracle for the Bruins to win. Vegas is at 4.5 in the Ute's favor. Even Vegas is unsure.
For Saturday, I want UCLA to be in the game. The entire game with a chance to win. If the coaches and the team show up, fully engaged, workin' their guts out, there's a good chance we finish Saturday with the win. For me, this game is "let's see what you are really made of"
Go Bruins!
I hope you will be lying in the grass. You have to lay something there. The verb lay requires a direct object. GO, BRUINS!!
Yep, we're UCLA fans. We expect the worst. Go Bruins!
I too looked at the rankings, TAMU and FSU are out. There's some good garbage down in the dump!
Eventually, Charlie Brown did get to kick the ball!
It’s the best case scenario, having your two best players the qb and the rb. I’m sticking to my guns, with this schedule 10-2 minimum, but should be 11-1 with the lone loss at Autzen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4-wJ3zmlXQ
Thank you for the great post. Really well written. Is this team a Lucy head fake or for real? More on that after facing Utah.
Never mind the whole Sisyphean task (see DD, I'm reading) of trying to kick the ball with Lucy holding, Charlie Brown's runup is way too long. What a blockhead. Even if his holder didn't pull the ball, there's no way he's getting that kick up and over the line or beating the edge rushers. Come on, Charlie Brown...Align with the center post, two steps back, one over, see the snap, go!
You’re overlooking that this year’s Bruins seem far more poised and experienced. The South Alabama game would have been a loss last year. Their defensive schemes seem far better. My primary concern is the lack of depth and talent on the defensive front. The secondaries suck. We’ve known it for some time and they were still pretty bad against Washington. That will not be addressed overnight. For this team, it will come down to whether the front 7 can get the right kind of pressure to make opposing QBs uncomfortable and force opposing o-lines to make mistakes.
Such an apt comparison Dimitri. I’m not convinced about this team, I think Lucy will pull the ball away. The Washington game was great and the team played well, but I think it’s LSU all over. Beat an over-ranked team, articles saying ‘Kelly has his mojo back’, and then the bottom falls out. We’ll see how they do against Utah, but (as I also thought against Washington) I just hope they don’t get embarrassed. I’m not sold on the Defense, yet. It does seem they benefited from not showing their scheme too much before the last game, but last year it didn’t take long for opponents to work out how to attack it. The Offense looks really good, but will rely on the pass protection holding up like it did on Friday. Everyone thinks we’re a run based offense, but I think it’s actually the passing game that is most important. It’s protect DTR in the pocket, so he makes good decisions in the pass game, which then opens up the run and puts the D on their heels. With a nice passing pocket, DTR is soooo much better than under pressure- even the way the pocket breaks down gives him the chance to feel the pressure and use his legs.
I do have to say, that even with a 10-2 season or better, I still don’t see Kelly as the right coach for the future. The problem is that he’s the best paid Offensive Coordinator in the game, rather than a Head Coach. There’s no accountability with the Defense, and he seems totally uninterested in recruiting. Maybe he’ll pull a rabbit out of the transfer portal, but where will the team be in 12 months time? We’re so thin already on both lines, I don’t really sense there’s a QB or RB to take over, and I can’t think of any big name prospects coming to Westwood. One of the reasons the Rose Bowl is so empty is this problem. With Mora, we always had a Myles Jack or Josh Rosen coming through to generate buzz and put bums on seats in the Rose Bowl. You can certainly argue that DTRs hurdles and Charbonnets yards after contact are worth the price of admission, but some 5* hype would be nice. Maybe I’m suffering from battered Bruin syndrome with my outlook, but then again Lucy can’t be trusted.
Washington played poorly in the first half. They found themselves in the second half. That long drive to run the clock out to end the game is why we won. If we had been stopped I believe Washington would have scored. Thank you DTR!!! The big test for me is Utah. If we beat them, we are for real.
Thanks Dmitri! As always, a fun read. My thoughts:
* Chip definitely played with half a play book in the first 4 games. UDub was surprised on both offense and defense, especially the first half. No doubt Utah will scout us well. And Cam Rising is a more mature QB, so I expect a tight game throughout.
* The first half was amazing. So fun to dominate like that.
* DTR is ridiculously intense. I'm not sure if he has the makings for the NFL -- needs more bulk to play QB, but maybe WR? But if that fails, he'd be an amazing officer in the USMC.
* Going conservative at the end was gut wrenching. If you can execute, it's the smart play, but Lucy's pulled that ball away so often, it's actually risky to play conservative. Glad we were able to pull it out.
*. Saturday's game will be a blast. Will be at First Draft in Denver with the locals.