UCLA Basketball Heat Check: Pre-NCAA Tournament Edition
Emptying out the notebook before the tournament games start.
The winter and early spring are always a busy time for me, with a lot of school activities and basketball coinciding to leave me with very little time to write about UCLA basketball outside of the various postgame articles. But with the NCAA Tournament coming up and both UCLA teams gearing up for their respective tournament runs, this is as good an opportunity as any to “empty the notebook”, so to speak, and talk about both teams and their performance up to this point.
I’m going to be talking about both teams in this column, starting with the women’s team since they finished their regular season and tournament run first.
UCLA Women’s Basketball
The victory over Southern Cal in the Big Ten Tournament championship game was a bit of a cathartic moment for a team that had hit something of a rut in the past month, especially against their bitter rivals. There was a lot to like from this game, with the Bruins showing the fight that they had lacked in their first two meetings this season while storming back from a 10-point halftime deficit, completely outplaying the Trojans in the second half. The Bruins got timely contributions from bench players Timea Gardiner and Janiah Barker, an excellent defensive performance from Gabriela Jaquez, and efficiently executed on their gameplan of attacking the interior of the Trojan defense. It was an excellent performance that helped secure a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Yet in watching that game, I could not divorce what I was seeing on the court to what had occurred the previous two games, and how UCLA’s victory was not a schematic victory but rather a program victory. Let me explain.
I mentioned back at the beginning of January that Coach Cori Close had seemingly found a solution to her tactical limitations by simply collecting as much talent as possible to throw at opponents. This strategy paid off throughout the season, as the Bruins were able to play a variety of lineups and survive games without various players without suffering a loss, which allowed them to weather the grind of the Big Ten travel schedule. Southern Cal, possessing the best player in women’s college basketball and a good supporting cast, was able to take advantage of UCLA’s poor tactical acumen in a way that few teams in the country can, and that led to those two regular season losses.
It was that depth that carried UCLA going into the third meeting between the two programs. Both teams played games in three straight days, and where UCLA was able to flex their depth in a win over Nebraska and an absolute laugher against a good Ohio State team, Southern Cal was forced into knock-down, drag-out fights with Indiana and Michigan. Against the Hoosiers, Juju Watkins was forced into 39 minutes of hard minutes, and had to play 37 more against Michigan while running mate Kiki Iriafen was forced into 38. Compare that to UCLA, who only had one player cross the 30-minute threshold against Ohio State, and that was Londynn Jones at 31. Lauren Betts topped out at 24 minutes, while Kiki Rice and Gabriela Jaquez played 18 each. UCLA’s starting unit put away Ohio State early while the bench was able to soak up minutes without giving the game away in the second half, letting the starters get much-needed rest going into the Southern Cal matchup on the third day.
The results of the previous two days played out as you would expect in that second half. Southern Cal had built a halftime lead over the Bruins by sticking to the same gameplan that had won them the first two matchups, but in the second half their legs finally gave out and their shots did not drop with any sort of consistency. Watkins still ended up with 29 points, but it was on a wildly-inefficient 9-28 shooting performance, and she was much less effective in the second half. Same for the rest of the Trojans, who were showing the effects of three straight days of hard basketball games while the Bruins with their fresh legs were able to take advantage.
Now, do I expect this same game to play out should the two teams meet in the NCAA Tournament? Not particularly; for one, the Trojans will likely have some kind of break between games heading into that matchup, which should give them fresher legs late in the game. UCLA found some things that worked, specifically having Jaquez act as the primary defender on Watkins, but that victory did not instill confidence in me that Coach Close can manage a high-level strategic situation.
But it did prove that UCLA’s depth should be more than enough to carry it to the Final Four, and getting a victory even with those circumstances could give UCLA a mental advantage going forward. That may just be enough.
Now for some other thoughts:
First things first: Lauren Betts, Kiki Rice, and any player worth their salt on this team will be here next season. Betts already announced that back in the beginning of February, but there’s a reason for that: thanks to the new WNBA collective bargaining agreement, anyone with eligibility remaining is incentivized to stick around one more season until 2026, when the WNBA will have a new collective bargaining agreement in place that should see significant pay bumps up for all players. It feels weird to look to next year’s roster when this year isn’t even close to over, but between the arrival/return of Charlisse Leger-Walker (who transferred to UCLA from Washington State this past offseason but is redshirting while recovering from an ACL tear that, ironically enough, came playing in Pauley against the Bruins in the 2023-2024 season) and a recruiting class headlined by Betts’s sister Sienna, the team should be one of the early favorites for next season.
That doesn’t mean improvements can’t be made by the players, and in particular I want to see Betts develop a right hand move. Teams are very aware of Lauren’s preference for attacking the basket with her left hand, and while there are only a few teams that can do something about it, those teams have really caused Betts to struggle because of how predictable she becomes. Developing a right hand is going to make her more unguardable at the college level, while also giving her more staying power at the WNBA level (I’m already concerned about her ability to stick at that level thanks to the increase in athleticism and size that the league has, so developing a more well-rounded offensive game will be crucial).
It cannot be overstated how crucial it was for UCLA that Gabriela Jaquez emerged as a legitimate defensive option against Juju Watkins. Note I am not saying that Jaquez was a perfect defender - Watkins is too good offensively and is a physical outlier that UCLA does not have a good answer for by any stretch - but Jaquez played smart, physical defense on Watkins that, at the very least, made her work that much harder for her points. Jaquez has shown tremendous growth this season, but if she can become a more legitimate three-and-D wing next season, that would also go a long way towards raising UCLA’s ceiling.
When it comes to UCLA’s path to Tampa, the Bruins could not ask for a better deal. Getting the #1 overall seed meant they got to dodge UConn before the Final Four, and they ended up with NC State as their two seeds, which was the weakest of the potential two seeds. In fact, UCLA got another gift in the seeding by avoiding Notre Dame, a team with top-end talent that was dropped to the #3 seed line and stuck in the same region as Texas. Getting LSU as the #3 seed in the region is interesting to be sure, and we have seen Kim Mulkey run circles around Cori Close as recently as this past NCAA Tournament, so there is the opportunity for the Bruins to exercise some demons. In either case, UCLA’s path to the Final Four feels like a gift, and now it is on the Bruins to take advantage and make history.
UCLA Men’s Basketball
I was struck by something while watching Mick Cronin’s press conference following the announcement that UCLA had gotten a #7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The reporter asked the players what they were feeling heading into their first-ever NCAA Tournament as college players, and I was reminded again that most of these players had never truly experienced anything in the way of success at the collegiate level before coming to UCLA (the exception being Kobe Johnson, but he had a great response that the Trojans made the Big Dance but did not do a lot of dancing once they got there, as he continues to be a UCLA legend on that front).
One of the things I mentioned back in the Arizona postgame article was that this UCLA team was composed of a lot of players who came from losing programs. Tyler Bilodeau, Skyy Clark, and Eric Dailey had never tasted the NCAA Tournament before, while Kobe Johnson and William Kyle III had only brief tastes of tournament play. Then turning to the non-transfers, Dylan Andrews had been to a Sweet Sixteen but only as a little-used bench piece his freshman year; he along with Sebastian Mack, Aday Mara, and Lazar Stefanovic are just as used to losing as they are to winning in a UCLA uniform. Trent Perry played high school ball last year, and he was the most talented player on the court more often than not; now, he plays with grown men with more experience and skill than him on a nightly basis.
Building a winning culture takes time and patience, and that is increasingly hard to do in collegiate men’s basketball these days. I’m a big proponent of paying players, but one of the drawbacks of the current system is that it causes more volatility in rosters on a year-to-year basis, so creating any sort of continuity is tougher. Consider that last year’s national champion is not ranked heading into the tournament this season, the runner-up is a #4 seed and ranked #22 in the nation, and one of the Final Four teams just fired their coach. Once-mighty Kansas is a #7 seed as well, while Gonzaga, long a bastion of consistency, is a #8 seed. On the flip side, the #1 overall seed was upset in the first round last year in a 4/13 matchup, while another one similarly was upset in a 7/10 matchup. #2 seed St. Johns was not even a tournament team last year. Volatility is the name of the game.
(PS, if you’re wondering why the same volatility is not present in the women’s game, the answer is simple: money. There is a ton of money floating around in the men’s game that does not exist for the women, so it is rare to see high-end transfers outside of extraordinary circumstances. Like, for example, Oregon State and Washington State getting relegated to second-tier status, which means some of their stars like Timea Gardiner and Charlisse Leger-Walker chose to transfer to a bigger platform like UCLA. Recruiting in the women’s game has long been more centralized around a few major programs because players flock to coaches with successful track records rather than who can pay them the most money. Situations like Rutgers this past season do not happen in women’s college basketball, though it will be interesting to see if some programs decide to take advantage of an empty market with the future arrival of revenue share.)
I mentioned repeatedly in the season preview and early on that, given the turnover UCLA saw last offseason, it was best to look at this team as an entirely new team, and that there would be warts along the way. The biggest wart, even beyond the guard play and rotational questions, was going to be getting this group of players to break from their losing habits and play like winners. The results have been mixed, though overall the ledger leans more towards the successful side. We tend to focus on the bad losses, like to Minnesota or Rutgers and the blowout to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament, but this team has had plenty of highs throughout the season. UCLA holds victories over a #2 seed (Michigan State), #3 seed (Wisconsin), #4 seed (Arizona), #5 seed (Oregon twice) and a #8 seed (Gonzaga). The offense and defense both rank in the top 40 of KenPom’s efficiency rankings, with the offense sitting at 35th while the defense has been even better at 17th.
The issue plaguing this team and keeping them from moving from good to great has been consistency. The Bruins have issues from game to game and minute to minute with focus and giving maximum effort at all times. The Wisconsin game is a great example of this: UCLA came into the game with plenty of energy but could not sustain it past the first few minutes, while the Badgers were more focused throughout the game. But again: the Badgers have been in that situation before, while it was a new experience for this Bruins squad.
I won’t pretend to know how this tournament run will end - I think the Bruins have a tough but manageable first-round game against Utah State, and then somehow drew the best possible two-seed in a volatile Tennessee squad - but I do think this was an overall positive season up to this point and a good bridge year towards another improvement next year. There will be some changes to the roster next year (which I’ll talk about below) but the bones are now in place for a major step forward next year. The key will be whether Mick Cronin can make the right decisions to lead to that improvement or not.
Now for some other thoughts:
I think I am going to dedicate two different bullet points to Aday Mara, which says a lot about his importance to this team and its future. Let’s start with the future part: barring some unforeseen situation where an NBA team promises to use a first-round pick on him, Mara should be returning to UCLA next season. I’m not stating this as 100% certainty, but everyone I talked to indicated that Mara and his family are pleased with his development to this point and see the opportunity for growth going forward. I’m sure it also helps that more than any of the Euro transfers we saw from last year, Mara embraced being a UCLA Bruin and took every opportunity to participate in various athletics functions throughout the years. It probably does not hurt that he’s currently at a school and living in a city with a large number of Spanish speakers as well, even if it is a different dialect from the Castillian of his homeland. So at the very least, expect the big Spaniard to factor into future plans next season.
As for those future plans, my gut feeling is that Cronin will shift his system to focus on Aday Mara more next season. Part of this is just understanding the situation regarding Mara this year; he missed the offseason again to play in Spain, getting a foot injury in the process that caused him not to be 100% at the start of the season. With Mara not available for those early practices, Cronin pivoted to more Tyler Bilodeau at center than I think he was comfortable with when he put the roster together. The non-conference slate did not dissuade Cronin from this idea in the slightest; on the contrary, Bilodeau mostly held up against the top competition that the Bruins faced, while Mara struggled to stay on the court. Even when the season shifted and Mara found himself in a starring role, he’s still been limited by how the team plays with him on the court. In fact, during the Wisconsin Big Ten Tournament game, I commented on the team looking much better throwing the ball inside to William Kyle than they do with Mara, and while game context matters, I will also note that Kyle has played with many of the other players on the roster since June; I watched a lot of the Rico Hines runs from this summer and Kyle was a prominent part of Team UCLA alongside Kobe Johnson, Trent Perry, and Eric Dailey.
So why do I think Mara becomes more of a focal point? Because Cronin wanted that to be the case back during Mara’s freshman season. If you’ll recall, the 2023-2024 season saw UCLA start the year with the ill-fated double-big lineup, where Mara played alongside Adem Bona. That lineup had some inherent problems, namely, on offense, where there were no outside threats anywhere to keep opponents honest. However, it felt apparent that Cronin saw the potential in running the offense through Mara as much as possible. With a few seasons of experience under his belt, it would not shock me to see Cronin return to his original plans regarding the 7’3” center.
I think I am going to save the discussion regarding UCLA’s guards for the eventual post-mortem on the season but suffice it to say this season would feel much different if Dylan Andrews played to the level we saw last year. It is not a stretch to say Andrews has been UCLA’s worst rotation player this season; advanced stats have his .068 win shares per 40 minutes as the lowest among regular rotation pieces by far while his PER (an efficiency rating used similar to WAR in baseball) sits at 9.7, by far the lowest on the team and sub-replacement level. Aday Mara’s usage gets most of the press (likely because he’s so big and obvious) but the miserable performance of Andrews this season has been the bigger issue, and the only reason I assume Cronin continues to play him so much is because he is hoping for something like a Johnny Juzang moment where the light goes off and he carries the team in the tournament. It feels unlikely, and the departure of Andrews after this season feels more likely at this point, but that’s why they play the games.
One last thing on this team before I go, but I think people should be watching what Mick Cronin chooses to do this offseason. I don’t mean with how he attacks the portal to find an impact wing but rather regarding his continued employment at UCLA. Cronin has been adamant that he will remain at UCLA, but between the rumors surrounding Cronin at Indiana (who just announced they are hiring West Virginia’s Darian DeVries) and Villanova, there is enough smoke to indicate that Cronin is frustrated with the administration at UCLA. I don’t blame him here (and someone should remind me to write an article this offseason about how little support Cronin has gotten on an administrative level), but his buyout also makes this hard to see as a real threat. Still, something to monitor going forward.
That’s all I got here. It’s time for the NCAA Tournament, where anything can happen. Is it time for another banner to hang in Pauley? Only time will tell.
Go Bruins!
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A Final Four for the women, and a Sweet 16 for the men seems not out of the question. We'll see.
Terrific insights. Thank you DD.