Pregame Guesses: UCLA Bruins Welcome South Alabama Jaguars to the Rose Bowl
How will UCLA Head Coach Chip Kelly manage UCLA's running back rotation tomorrow? Can UCLA's passing defense stop South Alabama? Which UCLA receiver not named Kaz Allen will "show out" for the Bruins?
Good Morning, Bruin fans! The UCLA Bruin football team (2-0) will kickoff the final game of its three-game, non-conference homestand tomorrow morning at 11 am, when the Bruins square off against the South Alabama Jaguars (2-0). Although many Bruin fans may scoff and consider the Jaguars to be the third expected win in three games to start the season, South Alabama, a contender in the upset-minded Sun Belt Conference, could give the Bruins a much better game than either Bowling Green or Alabama State did.
Indeed, South Alabama beat Central Michigan, 38-24, on the road last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the score. Well, you say, “Central Michigan is a patsy that plays in the MAC, just like Bowling Green, right?” Well, the answer is “maybe.” Yes, Central Michigan plays in the MAC but, at first blush, they did appear to give #8 Oklahoma State a tough time in Week 1 before falling 58-44. A closer look at that box score, however, reveals that Central Michigan wasn’t really in the game, trailing at the half 44-15 and scoring half of its points in the 4th quarter when the game was all but decided.
Setting aside this exercise in the “transitive property,” which really doesn’t help too much in my opinion, South Alabama appears to present a clear step up in competition from the last two weeks, but this is still a game UCLA should win. The oddsmakers agree. UCLA was a 24.5 favorite against Bowling Green, a 48.5 point favorite versus Alabama State, and 15.5 point favorite versus South Alabama.
Not surprisingly, Alabama is not known for producing rock bands. I am not a fan of country music so that genre is not going to make an appearance in this weekly column, including this weekend when it arguably makes the most sense. The state, however, did produce one of best soul/funk/disco bands of the 1970s and, that band in turn produced one of the all time disco greats. The lead signer of the group went on to a huge 1980s solo career, although he did not originally sing this particular song. Today’s musical selection, straight out of Alabama, is The Commodores’ “Brick House.”
Great song. Classic song.
The Commodores’ front man and later solo artist whom I mentioned is Lionel Richie, who went on to have a huge solo career in the 1980s. Notably, Richie did not sing this track, which was instead sung by the band’s drummer, Walter Orange.
Time to get to the guesses . . .
Last week, UCLA did not play senior running back Zach Charbonnet, instead rolling with Keegan Jones in the backfield, spelled by freshman T.J. Harden, Christian Grubb, Colston Yankoff, and Deshun Murrell. While I do not expect Grubb and Murrell to get regular carries, Yankoff could present an interesting option in the backfield as a former quarterback (double pass anyone?). Today, however, I want to focus more on Charbonnet, Jones, and Harden.
Zach is the clear “bell cow” back from the Bruins. No doubt about it. But UCLA head coach Chip Kelly figures to get Jones carries in relief and Harden, who may be the long-term successor after Charbonnet moves on to the NFL, could also see a fair amount of touches. The Bruins rush the football 41.5 times per game. With that in mind, predict the breakdown in rushing attempts between the three backs. Pregame Guess Number One: How many carries will Zach Charbonnet have against South Alabama? How many carries will Keegan Jones have? T.J. Harden?
South Alabama’s starting quarterback Carter Bradley has started the season well, although the Bruins will present a step up in competition. Bradley has completed 64.9% of his passes for 599 yards in two games with six touchdowns and an interception. The easy math shows that Bradley is averaging just a skosh less than 300 yards per game.
The UCLA passing defense, on the other hand, has only allowed 174 yards passing per game. South Alabama appears to have a better passing attack than either Bowling Green or Alabama State. Can the Bruins’ passing defense put in a similar performance against the Jaguars? Pregame Guess Number Two: How many passing yards will South Alabama record against the Bruins?
There are a lot of new faces catching the ball for the Bruins. Kazmeir Allen leads the team and he is a known commodity, but after him the Bruins feature several relative unknowns that have made contributions. For example, Josiah Norwood caught just four balls last year, but has already made six catches and scored a touchdown in 2022. Tight end Hudson Habermehl caught his first ball as a Bruin this season and has three other catches and a touchdown so far this campaign. Freshman Carsen Ryan has five catches.
A new player with a small sample size against inferior competition makes it hard to determine or predict what type of impact he will have going forward, but it is certainly fair game for a PGG. Pregame Guess Number Three: Aside from Allen, which player will have the “best” game for UCLA catching the ball (I realize that the term “best” is subjective and that reasonable minds could differ. For example, whether a player who makes eight catches for 115 years with no touchdowns had a “better” game than a player who catches two balls for 15 yards and two touchdowns).
The attendance last week versus Alabama State (33,727) was better than Bowling Green (27,143). Some possible reasons for that include: (1) free tickets given away; (2) a great Alabama State halftime show; (3) much cooler weather; (4) non-holiday weekend; and (5) a much more manageable kickoff time (2 p.m. rather than 11:30 a.m.).
Well, tomorrow’s game is another early kickoff. This time, it’s even earlier at 11 am. I have no idea why the Bruins are scheduling games at 11 a.m. in Los Angeles. It makes absolutely no sense to me. Many folks cannot make the journey to the Rose Bowl for such an early start and, if they do, tailgating opportunities are significantly abbreviated. With the students still not back in school yet (would they even be up and our the door for this game anyway?) and another non-marquee opponent, I expect an attendance similar to the last two weeks. BONUS GUESS: Predict the attendance at tomorrow’s game.
Make your guesses in the comment section and sound off about the game!
Go Bruins!!!
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My guesses:
1. 20, eight, and five carries respectively.
2. 220 yards.
3. Bobo
Bonus: 38,500
1. 18, 9, 5
2. 205
3. Ezeike
Bonus: 38.5K, my daughter being one of them. Go Bruins!