Pregame Guesses: #18 UCLA Bruins Host #11 Utah Utes
UCLA may be able to run the ball against the Utes, and UCLA's rushing defense presents an interesting matchup for Utah's ground game. Also, which player on either team will get on the board first?
Hello once again, Bruin fans. Today’s iteration of Pregame Guesses will be the sixth of the season. It is hard to believe that, after tomorrow, the UCLA Bruin football team’s regular season in 2022 will be halfway over. I will say, however, that it feels good to be 5-0, and ranked!
Tomorrow’s game will perhaps be UCLA’s strongest test of the season so far. After Utah’s loss at the hand of the Florida Gators in The Swamp (a game in which the Utes had no business losing but still managed to do so), they have won each of their subsequent games in convincing fashion. It should be a fun game at the Rose Bowl tomorrow afternoon!
The connective tissue between this week’s musical selection is going to be very, very tenuous at best, but it was the first thing that came to mind and I couldn’t think of anything better. Let’s work backwards to get the “connection” . . . .
I am picking a song by General Public, a band that formed in the mid-80s and included two of the founding members of the more popular band, The English Beat (or just, The Beat in the U.K.). Those guys are Dave Wakeling and Ranking Roger. Both The English Beat and General Public mixed elements of post-punk, new wave, reggae, and ska to produce a unique sound. I am picking one of General Public’s more obscure song, “Anxious,” only because, on listening years later, I am struck by how much this track was truly a reggae song.
So where is the connection? UCLA is ranked for the first time this year? Ranking Roger?
Ugh. Terrible dad joke. Great song though. Give it a listen:
Perfect music for a Friday heading into the weekend! Oh and, RIP Ranking Roger (1963-2019).
On to the guesses . . . .
Utah may be the best defensive team that the Bruins face all season. After all, the Utes are #13 in the nation in total defense. A deeper drill down reveals, however, that Utah’s real strength is passing defense. The Utes are #9 in passing yards allowed and #4 in interceptions with nine. Utah’s rushing defense, on the other hand, is a good-but-not-great #47 in the country, allowing 123.2 yards per game. Although Dorian Thompson-Robinson may be the best quarterback that Utah has faced this season and could definitely find success throwing the ball, this matchup sets up nicely for the Bruin rushing attack. This one is the multi-part question.
Pregame Guess Number One: Predict the total number of rushing yards UCLA will gain against Utah and then break that number down between Zach Charbonnet, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and all the remaining UCLA ball carriers.
Like UCLA, Utah rushes the ball very well, averaging 203.4 yards on the ground per game, good enough for #25 in the nation (the Bruins are #21 rushing for 213.2 yards per game). The Utes have a returning stud in junior Tavion Thomas, who rushed for 1,108 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2021. His numbers are a bit down this season, but he still averages 4.4 yards per carry and has 295 yards on the ground. Some of his carries have been eaten up by underclassmen, freshman Jaylon Glover and sophomore Micah Bernard, both of whom are having solid seasons so far in supporting roles. The Bruins also need to watch out for Cameron Rising, Utah’s mobile quarterback, who is only behind Thomas on the squad in rushing yards and averages 8.2 yards per rush.
The Bruin rushing defense, however, is #6 in the country. Yes, you read that right, the Bruins only allow 80.4 yards per game on the ground. UCLA could be up to the task of stopping the Ute rushing attack. Something has to give here.
Pregame Guess Number Two: How many rushing yards will Utah gain against the #6 ranked UCLA rushing defense?
Both of the prior PPGs have dealt with rushing today, so let’s talk about something else. How about something completely different for PGGs this week? Something similar to a prop style bet? Here goes . . . .
Pregame Guess Number Three: Which player will score first tomorrow? Note: if you guess that the first points will be a passing touchdown, list both the quarterback and the receiver in your guess.
Bonus Guess: You know the drill. Guess the attendance at the Rose Bowl. Unlike many of this season’s earlier games in Pasadena, all of the factors are in favor of a good crowd: the students are in school, the kickoff time is much better, the weather should be beautiful (not too hot), and Utah is arguably UCLA’s biggest draw of the season outside of Southern Cal.
Thank you for reading. Please make your guesses in the comment section.
Go Bruins!!!
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1. 169 yards. Zach=102; DTR=45; other 22.
2. 148 yards.
3. Barr-Mira.
Bonus: 57,500.
Cool music selection. The title is perfect. And ska-adjacent is always a good choice.
1. 180. Zach: 110. DTR: 40. others 30. I think we'll pop off some good runs but it won't feel like a good running game though as Utah will force us to pass a lot.
2. 150
3. UCLA. DTR to Kaz Allen. The first series will be scripted, like a hot knife through butter. Then it will get tough.
bonus: 64,000. This is our biggest game in a long time and conditions for a big turnout are perfect