Pregame Guesses: The UCLA Bruins Travel to Tempe to Face the Arizona State Sun Devils

How will ASU's new QB fare against UCLA? Will UCLA's offense continue to hum in the desert? Can the Sun Devils stop the Bruins on third down?

UCLA seniors Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Atonio Mafi. (Photo Credit: Don Liebig/uclabruins.com).

Welcome back to The Mighty Bruin’s Pregame Guesses. I am sorry that I took a short respite from writing this article for the last two weeks. Sometimes life, work, and personal matters get in the way of writing about my beloved Bruins. But I am back for the remainder of the season, starting today.

Since my last PGG, the UCLA Bruin football team (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12) suffered its first loss of the season at the hands of the Oregon Ducks. The Bruins then put on a dominant performance versus Stanford. In particular, the first half of the game versus the Trees was about the best half of UCLA football from an offensive standpoint that I have seen in the Chip Kelly era.

Now, UCLA faces Arizona State (3-5, 2-3 Pac 12) in a Saturday night Pac-12 After Dark clash in Tempe. The Sun Devils are trying to get their season back on track after firing Herm Edwards following a 1-2 start, which occurred the day after a home loss to Eastern Michigan. ASU has gone 2-3 since the school named running backs coach Shaun Aguano as interim coach, with wins against Washington and Colorado, and losses to Utah, Southern Cal, and Stanford. Are the Sun Devils improving? How will UCLA fare in the desert tomorrow night? We will find out tomorrow night.

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But, first, let’s listen to a song. One of my favorite bands of the 21st century is the L.A. outfit, Silversun Pickups. The band, formed in 2000, released its first EP in 2005 and then followed that up with their first full length album, the commercially and critically successful “Carnavas,” in 2006. Two years later, their popularity soared with the release of their second album, “Swoon,” and its single “Panic Switch,” which found itself in the top ten of both the Billboard top rock songs and top alternative songs. In my opinion, there is not a bad song on “Carnavas,” and I still love listening to that album from start to finish (just like the old days). Here is one of my favorite tracks from that release, a rocking tune called “Well Thought Out Twinkles”:

Silversun Pickups has always been compared to Smashing Pumpkins and, after a listen to “Well Thought Out Twinkles,” you can see why. But the band has evolved away from that in the last decade, at the same time putting out great music of a slightly different flavor. If you liked “Well Thought Out Twinkles,” check out the rest of Carnavas. If you like that, dig into the rest of their catalog. I will be seeing Silversun Pickups perform live in ten days, the first time I will have seen them since 2013. I cannot wait.

Onto the guesses . . .

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Part of the reason that the Sun Devils are playing better is because of a change at quarterback. The Sun Devils started the season with Florida Gator junior transfer Emory Jones under center, but an injury to Jones versus Washington resulted in the introduction of Trenton Bourguet, also a junior, into the mix. Bourguet played well, throwing three touchdown passes and helping ASU upset UW, but Jones was back under center next week versus Stanford. After Arizona State fell to the struggling Cardinal, Bourguet started over Jones and played the entire game versus Colorado, leading the Sun Devils to a 42-34 victory, while going 32 for 43, for 432 yards, and three touchdowns. Arizona State is 2-0 in games in which Bourguet has played. Can Bourguet find success against the UCLA defense? Pregame Guess Number One: This is a two-parter. How many yards will Trenton Bourguet throw for against the Bruins? How many passing touchdowns will he have?

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As I mentioned in the intro, UCLA’s offense looked great in the first half last week. The Bruins were able to take their foot off the gas a bit in the second half, cruising to victory. The Bruins are #8 in the country in total offense, averaging slightly more than 500 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Arizona State’s defense is in the bottom part of the national rankings. ASU is ranked #87 in total defense, allowing an average of 401 yards per game. For comparison to other UCLA opponents, that ranking is slightly worse than Oregon (#76, allowing 386.2 yards per game) and Stanford (#102, allowing 417.1 per game). UCLA racked up 448 yards versus Oregon, 62 yards more than the average allowed by the Ducks, and 523 versus Stanford, 106 more yards than average allowed by the Cardinal. Like they did versus Oregon and Stanford, I think that the UCLA offense will outgain the average yards per game average allowed by Arizona State. What do you think? Pregame Guess Number Two: I am setting the over/under line for UCLA total yards gained at 475, 74 yards more than the ASU average. Full Disclosure: I choose 475 because it was between the Oregon (448) and Stanford (523) results, and adjusted it a bit toward Oregon due to that game and this game being on the road. Do you take the over or the under?

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Let’s get back to Arizona State’s defense. In researching and writing this article, one stat stood out to me. The Sun Devils allow their opponents to convert third down chances 48.3% of the time. That is the third worst percentage in the county, coming in at #129 out of #131 teams. UCLA, on the other hand, is really good at converting third downs, converting 51% of the time, #8 in the country. If UCLA can convert its third downs consistently, it will go a long way toward securing a victory in Tempe. Pregame Guess Number Three: Predict the number of third downs UCLA will face tomorrow, and the number of times UCLA will convert those third downs. (Note: UCLA has had 100 third down plays so far this season in eight games, which is an average of 12.5 third down plays for game).

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Bonus Guess: Pac 12 writer/guru Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News has predicted that Arizona State will beat UCLA tomorrow and go on to a bowl game. Hopefully, Chip Kelly has posted that article on the bulletin board in the UCLA locker room and the Bruins will come out with something to prove. This could be a classic trap game. UCLA has had issues in the desert as a favored team in the past. Predict who wins the game tomorrow and the final score.

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Let us know your predictions in the comment section.

Go Bruins!!!

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